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  #1  
Old 01-20-2015, 10:20 AM
pariah1107
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Scott, Just calculate the odds, 4th down conversion percentage in the NFL (45%, 98/216 probably lower with a fake field goal/punt), two point conversions (47%, 28/59 in 2014), and on side kicks (16%, 9/56 in 2014). All of these events combined 45% X 47% X 16% = a 3.4% chance of success. That's 1 in 33, a longshot in horse racing/boxing circles. I'd say that's luck, not to factor in the coin toss, or to mention Hauschka had not attempted an on side kick since 2012.

Did you really have a 3% chance to brush your teeth this morning?

Last edited by pariah1107; 01-20-2015 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 01-20-2015, 10:35 AM
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Runscott Runscott is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pariah1107 View Post
Scott, Just calculate the odds
Well, we thought with me getting coffee, it was 100% Guess what? I screwed around and remembered I had a package arriving before 10:00. I'm making my coffee at home instead - 1st time in a week. A conscious human decision.

With a coin it's 50/50 - luck. With football plays there are also conscious decisions to be made.

I guess the problem with the word 'luck' is that I took several statistics classes - they made you do that to get an MBA - and you CAN calculate the odds of a coin being a head or a tail. You have no say whatsoever in the matter - it is pure luck. But then there is a decision to make - take the ball or let the other team have it. Conscious decisions and physical ability to execute those decisions isn't luck.

While you can also calculate the odds of any football play outcome, you DO have a say in the matter of almost every one of them. I don't think anyone participating in this thread is taking 'consciousness' into account here. Coins don't have it - football players do. Coaches do. If you wanted to create a board game for football, and have a die you roll that 15% of the time would give you a successful onside kick, then that would be luck. But you would also have to create a die that helps you make the decision as to whether or not to kickoff and rely on your defense to hold the other team so that you could get the ball back. What kind of die would you create for that? How about the odds of Seattle, in that particular situation, with those particular players, on their home field? Can you still just roll a die and get a lucky outcome?

You guys call it whatever you want. It's a good discussion and, if you like, I have no problem with you declaring yourselves correct - David's definition of 'luck' would certainly indicate as much.

Edited to add: just read in today's paper that if this had actually been a board game, there would have been a 1% chance of Seattle winning when there were four minutes remaining - I assume they mean just after the Green Bay interception.
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Old 01-20-2015, 03:22 PM
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Scott, I think I definitely was factoring player "consciousness" when referring to Russell Wilson's game/situation awareness.

Separately with respect to the decision on an OT coin toss, every team will take the ball in OT. It's as close to a no brainer as I can imagine, so no credit for a decision there. The only reason I could ever see not doing so is if wind/weather conditions are so severe... Check that, all teams will take the ball. (an aside- I gotta think with practice a coin toss can be manipulated.. But that isn't relevant). I think many of the decisions in the final 3 minutes were already made and dictated by situation-- decision to onside kick, decision to go for 2, or to take the ball in OT. The fake FG on the other hand is a gutsy decision.

I see the Seahawks' "luck" as pertaining to anything that was outside their control (other team drops a ball, muffs a punt, makes a very poor decision, etc)... Of course the Seahawks' decisions and execution can play a big factor in increasing their odds, but no one on the Seahawks influenced GB's DB to slide after that INT. Take that example alone-- he doesn't slide, maybe he ends up in FG range.. Or at the very least, he burns a few more seconds off, so it's likely Seattle begins their last drive just after the 2 min warning, as opposed to just prior... In which case I doubt they start that drive with back to back runs.. Which maybe yields a 3rd and long... And on and on.

From the Seahawks perspective, it's lucky the Packers made a series of untimely mistakes. Again however, I fully give Seattle credit for taking full advantage through their execution. Seattle is undoubtedly a SB worthy team.
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Old 01-20-2015, 03:31 PM
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You guys keep saying that something is 'luck' because it could have gone a different way. That's true of everything in life. I'm lucky I'm not breaking a finger every time I touch one to the keyboard.

Let's flip things around. I could say that the Packers were lucky that Seattle put them in a position to win (I don't believe that, but I could say it). The Packers then removed their good luck through a series of bad decisions and poor execution: Was it bad luck for the Packers that they decided not to return the interception that could have iced the game? Was it bad luck that McCarthy decided to run three straight plays when a first down and a field goal would have won it? Was it bad luck that McCarthy apparently failed to emphasize that blockers had to block on onside kicks and that there was a player behind them ready to catch it? Was it bad luck that they somehow allowed Wilson to through a helium ball up in the air and complete the 2-point conversion, or was it just poor execution by the two players who were standing around while the ball was clearly floating through the air in their direction? Were any of McCarthy's decisions bad luck?
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