Help! The Hobby is DYYYINNGGGGG!!!!

[ls7plus]

Anyone who thinks the hobby is dying should take a look at the changes in REA's auction catalog over the last 20+ years--I have one I believe is from 1993, and its about 6-8 double-sided pages on newspaper-type stock. Now, it seems to grow and grow every year, and is presently over 500 pages of the highest grade, glossy stock available. Of course, REA focuses on where the true value lies in the hobby: rare, truly significant items in the best grade you can find or afford.

The fatal flaw with new cards is that the highest demand and hence price tends to be for "one of...(insert limited quantity)" of such players as Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, where the significant aspect will not be determinable for many years. Pay $50K for a one of three Trout refractor rookie and you may be near tears when he later turns out to be Pete Reiser, Rick Reichardt, Tony Conigliaro, Ron Swoboda, Kerry Wood, Joe Mauer, Steven Strasburg, or even Rocky Colavito, let alone A-Roid (Reichardt and Swoboda were also "the new Mickey Mantle" for awhile in their time). Let him age into his mid to late 30's to see where he really ends up at. His cards will all still be out there. Demand for the latest and greatest is speculative and transient, while that for rare and significant items tends to be lasting and growing, as the number of knowledgeable collectors grows.

The hobby certainly isn't dying, and won't, as long as baseball is around, and collectors are interested in its history. There is, however, a maturing process that occurs within the hobby, and it seems every generation of collectors must learn and accept the above. Paying big bucks for the latest wunderkind to burst upon the scene is no different than taking your wad to the craps or roulette table--which is perfectly fine, so long as you realize exactly what it is that you are doing (and given the asking price for some of these modern "gems," craps and roulette may well have a higher upside). Patience is the order of the day when thinking about spending any significant sums on these kinds of cards/players. You can't make something worth the price you'll have to pay if you submit to the GOTTA HAVE HIM NOW urge by wishing it to be so. Time is the factor that will reveal true and growing value.

May your collecting bring you joy, rather than pain,

Larry

[ALR-bishop]

This takes a real load off my mind

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

This takes a real load off my mind

many stars lose their power..guys like George foster are considered commons...guys with 4+ all star years who aren't HOFs and the POP isn't low for the grade in the era that's most sought out for in set building are commons to most people..

Ruth , Gehrig....those are different issues....but when I collected the 1952s..im pretty sure I was bidding and losing on certain 'star' cards but to me they were just commons...but eventually the bidding died down on those type of players...Mantle no...but Smokey Burgess for example..i never heard of the guy..to most people we only cared about his POP and high number status and grade....the fact that he was an all star meant nothing...

so basically the stars of today..maybe 2% of the next 40 stars become the 'mantle' for people buying those cards 30 years from now and on...etc......but in the short term to people seeing them as current stars..they aren't paying for them knowing that only a small number of the stars will be the guys that collectors 30 years from now care about ..besides the card, grade, POP etc..

[JustinD]

I think the hobby is certainly transitioning.

It seems the short memories and attention span of most of the new Millennial generation makes these new cards seem like a good short term and poor long term investment. Todays new cards are a flipper or speculators dream. I believe this is the reasoning behind demand for "Superfractor" type cards as the loss risk is there but the gains can be exponential. The problem in my mind would be holding these cards long term as it seems the interest in that generation is generally nill the moment those players leave the sport. Only to return for a short term if a HOF possibility is mentioned.

The older cards are certainly in a renaissance currently which I see as holding strong for at least the next 20 years. The issue is the collectors of those cards, even those up to the 1970's are certainly aging. I don't think these cards will hold demand after the Boomers have left except in a much smaller circle. I see a large supply vs. demand of many issues, especially of the modern card era coming around 2025.

To be quite honest as a 41 year old collector, facing the possible accessibility of numerous cards I have always coveted around age 60 sounds nice. However, I think the price I am paying today is going to be regretted.

In retrospect, the happiness these cards bring is worth quite a lot.

[t206blogcom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I think the hobby is certainly transitioning.

It seems the short memories and attention span of most of the new Millennial generation makes these new cards seem like a good short term and poor long term investment. Todays new cards are a flipper or speculators dream. I believe this is the reasoning behind demand for "Superfractor" type cards as the loss risk is there but the gains can be exponential. The problem in my mind would be holding these cards long term as it seems the interest in that generation is generally nill the moment those players leave the sport. Only to return for a short term if a HOF possibility is mentioned.

The older cards are certainly in a renaissance currently which I see as holding strong for at least the next 20 years. The issue is the collectors of those cards, even those up to the 1970's are certainly aging. I don't think these cards will hold demand after the Boomers have left except in a much smaller circle. I see a large supply vs. demand of many issues, especially of the modern card era coming around 2025.

To be quite honest as a 41 year old collector, facing the possible accessibility of numerous cards I have always coveted around age 60 sounds nice. However, I think the price I am paying today is going to be regretted.

In retrospect, the happiness these cards bring is worth quite a lot.

+1 Spot on and the reason I collect for fun, not profit/business.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by t206blogcom

+1 Spot on and the reason I collect for fun, not profit/business.

I agree with you as well...I will be competing with you to buy these cards 20 years from now as well though

people go to the casino for entertainment,i think I lose less money in cards..


incidentally if you start a thread about 'is the hobby good as ever, is this a bubble, or is the hobby dieing' you will get 100s of replys for sure

[donniebaseball]

To be quite honest as a 41 year old collector, facing the possible accessibility of numerous cards I have always coveted around age 60 sounds nice. However, I think the price I am paying today is going to be regretted.

In retrospect, the happiness these cards bring is worth quite a lot. [/QUOTE]

I agree that this is a great post. I am also 40 years old and think that the demand for cards from the 1940s-1970s will decrease to some extent making them more affordable in the future. I don't think they will bottom out but the demand may decline once collectors who watched these players are no longer here. Collectors from my age group are returning to the hobby and younger collectors definitely respect the vintage cardboard but I don't think it will be enough to replace the "boomers" who are no longer around. Supply may catch up with demand. Regardless, this won't stop me from purchasing as many of the key cards from that era that I can afford now.

[majordanby]

starting in the 1950s, baseball card collecting was largely something children and youth did. adults rarely ventured into card collecting as it was marketed towards and culturally accepted as a kid's hobby. baseball card collecting dramatically changed in the 80s as it became more of older young and middle aged men pursuing junk wax to make a profit. cards became more like assets - and as adults infiltrated the hobby, the card industry adapted - more companies were created to appeal to different tastes, rookie cards became the craze, and in came the insert era of the 1990s. The insert era basically took the idea of the rookie card craze and magnified it 100 times - it was basically a form of gambling. Unless an adult figure in the household collected cards, kids generally didnt collect - or at least didnt do so in the same way kids collected pre 1980. the advent of video games and a vast array of child and adolescent centric forms of leisure/distraction also became big factors, as did the increased popularity of other sports that had less "roots" in card collecting, such as football and basketball. as this was happening, pre war cards became much more prominent. with online auctions, which increased the ability to purchase vintage cards, pre war card collecting became a much more viable option of card collecting for a contemporary male adult seeking to reenter the hobby, but with no interest in collecting today's cards and mild interest in collecting cards of his youth.

collectors born in the 70s, 80s and 90s typically reenter the hobby after an extended period off, which usually corresponds to college, young adulthood, the establishment of a career, starting a family, and, most importantly, the accumulation of personal income. they start to look at cards of their youth - collect the rookie cards of their era that theyve always wanted - but, eventually find little satisfaction with the general mass availability of these cards. they eventually find their way into post war cards - and then finally into prewar, which "feels" more like a hobby rooted in intrinsic rather than purely financial value (as modern card collecting may feel like) since it's vintage, rooted in americana and the history of the sport, and generally looks like art.

the hobby isnt dead. but, it sure aint hell what it looked like 30+ years ago.

[priestc]

Originally Posted by majordanby

starting in the 1950s, baseball card collecting was largely something children and youth did. adults rarely ventured into card collecting as it was marketed towards and culturally accepted as a kid's hobby. baseball card collecting dramatically changed in the 80s as it became more of older young and middle aged men pursuing junk wax to make a profit. cards became more like assets - and as adults infiltrated the hobby, the card industry adapted - more companies were created to appeal to different tastes, rookie cards became the craze, and in came the insert era of the 1990s. The insert era basically took the idea of the rookie card craze and magnified it 100 times - it was basically a form of gambling. Unless an adult figure in the household collected cards, kids generally didnt collect - or at least didnt do so in the same way kids collected pre 1980. the advent of video games and a vast array of child and adolescent centric forms of leisure/distraction also became big factors, as did the increased popularity of other sports that had less "roots" in card collecting, such as football and basketball. as this was happening, pre war cards became much more prominent. with online auctions, which increased the ability to purchase vintage cards, pre war card collecting became a much more viable option of card collecting for a contemporary male adult seeking to reenter the hobby, but with no interest in collecting today's cards and mild interest in collecting cards of his youth.

collectors born in the 70s, 80s and 90s typically reenter the hobby after an extended period off, which usually corresponds to college, young adulthood, the establishment of a career, starting a family, and, most importantly, the accumulation of personal income. they start to look at cards of their youth - collect the rookie cards of their era that theyve always wanted - but, eventually find little satisfaction with the general mass availability of these cards. they eventually find their way into post war cards - and then finally into prewar, which "feels" more like a hobby rooted in intrinsic rather than purely financial value (as modern card collecting may feel like) since it's vintage, rooted in americana and the history of the sport, and generally looks like art.

the hobby isnt dead. but, it sure aint hell what it looked like 30+ years ago.

I think card collecting became a pure adult only thing only in the late 90s. I was in elementary school from 1991 until 1995 and I remember petty much every kid had baseball cards. At least every kid who played sports. I stopped collecting in about '97 or so (when I was 14) because hardly anyone else I knew of my friends still collected any more.

Also, I think some sets will survive as americana in the same was pre WW1 cards have now. For instance I see 1993 Finest Refractors as just as americana as 1952 topps and T-206.