Long term trends

[T206Collector]

Signed T206s and tough HOFers from the Goudey set are getting ridiculous prices in the latest auctions. Signed T206 commons like Snodgrass and Doyle went for ~$400 six or seven years ago, and now are all $1,000-$2,000.
Even Marquard reaches those price points. The fact that the T206 Speaker went for over $30,000 in the latest Goodwin is a scary omen for those of us who want to keep adding these beautiful rarities to our collections. It is important to recognize that the fact that a signature appears on a common set is actually the appeal -- a familiar image with a signature; as opposed to a random rarity signed, which is neither familiar or likely to appreciate. People want the sigs on Topps, not Mother's Cookies.

For me, the signed T206 set is a great way to move forward because the last player to die was Marquard in 1980. That means no signatures during the 80s craze, which certainly infused a massive supply into the market. Anyone who wants one can get a Hubbell, for example. There is no reason for those to go up in value. If you stick with HOFers who died before 1980 on standard issued cards like Topps, Bowman, Goudey, T206, etc., I think you'll be just fine in the long term.

[travrosty]

there will always be set collectors. people change collecting and hobby goals and the younger generation always comes through and picks up the mantle, literally.

[sylbry]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

If you stick with HOFers who died before 1980 on standard issued cards like Topps, Bowman, Goudey, T206, etc., I think you'll be just fine in the long term.

In theory. However all it takes is a skilled forger and an incompetent third party authenticator for that only known t206 Speaker to be one of 10 or one of 20.

We all know many of the signed vintage cards coming to market as of late are fake.

And this is where the seasoned collector will say that they can spot the fakes and wouldn't buy one. True. But the two person bidding war is less likely to happen when one of those people already has purchased a semi convincing fake and is no longer in the market.

The vintage signed card market is on a bubble due to baby boomers with money having fun. And it is going to burst.

[theshleps]

After talking to some very skilled authenticators that many of us know it is scary knowing there are good fake signed t206's and 33 Goudeys out there that could even fool them. That is what they tell me. Almost wants to make me switch to autograph books and signed contracts and checks but I love the cards too much

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by sylbry

However all it takes is a skilled forger and an incompetent third party authenticator for that only known t206 Speaker to be one of 10 or one of 20.

Five years ago, this signed T206 of Cobb sold for $27,600:

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...lls-for-27600/

If skilled forgers and incompetent third party authenticators are at all common, why hasn't a single signed T206 Cobb been sold at auction since?

(Having said that, Goodwin will have a Cobb Bat On, which comes from the same collector who had the Speaker in an upcoming auction.)