OT - Example of why card collecting is dying re: Topps

[PolarBear]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

It's not just baby boomers buying the postwar stuff.

I'd say they're the largest market for 50's and 60's stuff.

The last time the card hobby was a "kids thing" was around 1990. Eventually, you're going to run out of nostalgic baby boomers and gen x-ers who are looking to put together post war sets they remembered as kids.

I think the post war market is eventually going to crash, maybe with exceptions like rookie HOF'ers who will probably always be in demand for HOF sets. I doubt in 10-15 years you're going to see as many people chasing 1959 Topps sets, etc.

[packs]

I also highly doubt 20 years from now you'll find a lot of people looking to spend more than a hundred bucks for RCs of most HOFers. I can't see a person 30 years from now paying up for a high end Al Kaline or the like.

[sbfinley]

Not that I want to derail the thread more than I already have, but I don't subscribe the "hobby is dying" sentiment. The modern market is thriving and and large percentage of that market is 18-35. Many of those collectors invariably step into vintage after a period of time. Additionally, the current market is drastically different from the market of the boom years. Yes the current products are heavily printed, but enough niche sub markets with limited commodities have opened that products should retain vastly more value than the 80-90's have. The Pujols chrome auto will be the litmus test of the Chrome era as he should be the first player with Chrome RC auto to enter Hall. If his value sustains it will bode well for everyone else down the line. Yeah, the hobby is not widespread as it was during the boom, and no kids aren't lining up for gum packs at the general store, but the hobby (much like baseball) is firmly entrenched in specific areas of American culture.

[Exhibitman]

I tend to agree with Steve. Collectors have a mentality, a sickness, really, that causes them to collect in the first place. As they get more involved they branch out chasing the high. The modern market does skew younger and those collectors are likely to turn to older cards. I started with the current Topps issues and made my way back to prewar over the years. That said, I also agree that as specific populaces age and either quit or pass away, certain segments of collecting will lose some of their market. The boomers are starting to age out of collecting while the Gen Xers are starting their peak earning years. I'd not be surprised to see average 1950s stuff lose some of its appeal relative other things as its audience ages out. Not the truly iconic sets like 1952 Topps or iconic cards--those have lives of their own apart from narrow niche collectors. I'd not be surprised if the 1970s does better as guys like me rebuild their childhood collections, which started with busting the annual Topps wax packs in the 1970s.

[packs]

I think 70s cards will explode too. You might even see people paying decent prices for Mattingly rookies and the like too. I think 30 years from now someone will gladly pay equal money for something like a Mattingly rookie as they will for lower tier HOFers like say Goose Gossage.

[ALR-bishop]

I have been collecting since 1957 and do not have the slightest idea of what is going to happen in regard to baseball card collecting in the future.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

I have been collecting since 1957 and do not have the slightest idea of what is going to happen in regard to baseball card collecting in the future.

This is the one good observation on the thread.

[yanks12025]

I can't believe people are paying $175 for a murphy signed bat. That is just too funny. The guy is at best an average player who had two good playoff series, some stupid team will pay him lots of money for average baseball(hopefully not the yankees)

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by packs

I think 70s cards will explode too. You might even see people paying decent prices for Mattingly rookies and the like too. I think 30 years from now someone will gladly pay equal money for something like a Mattingly rookie as they will for lower tier HOFers like say Goose Gossage.

1970-73 lo # cards will have a bump but not explode
Early 1970's high numbers and tough cards may have another run in them.

The mid-late 1970's will have a bump but the supply is sufficient that they will never explode.

Stars will be somewhere in the middle. I will tell you that someone bought out all my 1970's commons and stars (except for the few cards I had over $10) and there is demand for more.

Rich

[Laxcat]

Agreed. With the demand for the 70's. It sells like hot cakes.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I tend to agree with Steve. Collectors have a mentality, a sickness, really, that causes them to collect in the first place. As they get more involved they branch out chasing the high. The modern market does skew younger and those collectors are likely to turn to older cards. I started with the current Topps issues and made my way back to prewar over the years. That said, I also agree that as specific populaces age and either quit or pass away, certain segments of collecting will lose some of their market. The boomers are starting to age out of collecting while the Gen Xers are starting their peak earning years. I'd not be surprised to see average 1950s stuff lose some of its appeal relative other things as its audience ages out. Not the truly iconic sets like 1952 Topps or iconic cards--those have lives of their own apart from narrow niche collectors. I'd not be surprised if the 1970s does better as guys like me rebuild their childhood collections, which started with busting the annual Topps wax packs in the 1970s.

well the trick is what are the 'iconic' cards..are there just 5 of them? nobody knows for sure.....also for middle age guys..it doesn't matter about whether kids collect now...in terms of resale value....kids don't have 1000s to spend...30 years from now, yeah they are the new customers but for me I don't care about 30 years from now.....

the people with the collecting sickness will always look at the main issues and the 'Uncommon Commons'...yeah there are the big HOF guys..but when you see $3,000 being paid for a 1954 topps Ben Wade because POP is 20..thats more than a PSA 8 Jackie robinson or willie mays gets for example..

[packs]

Personally I don't think uncommon commons or scraps have much a future in collecting. The window is closing if you ask me, same thing with the pop fanatics. I think we'll see a pretty steady decline in the next few decades.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by packs

Personally I don't think uncommon commons or scraps have much a future in collecting. The window is closing if you ask me, same thing with the pop fanatics. I think we'll see a pretty steady decline in the next few decades.

haha 'next few decades' that's anything, ....VHS was doing well for less than a decade ..so were CDs...fortunes made 5x over in a few decades and lost as well....

heck not sure why I studied hard for my job..since can only work for a few decades.......a few decades means to me 20-30 years.... lots of things change in that amount of time....baseball cards is the least of my worries..

[chaddurbin]

modern card buyers are not collectors, they are amateur day-traders. everything they have is for sale at a moment's notice, they don't focus on anything besides the hottest prospect of the week or base their whole buying/selling around the release of the top 100 list, awards ceremony...and which teams are still in it.

baseball is an old man's audience...i'm tired of all the heart pain, acid reflux, and penis problem ads aimed at middle-aged white men. baseball is doing nothing to bring in the younger viewers. with the slow death of football i'm hoping that'd bring more athletes to start playing baseball again.

the "card hobby is dying" cry has been around forever true, but let's see in 20-30 years when today's teens grow older if they even know what "baseball" and "card collecting" is...

[mechanicalman]

My limited, purely anecdotal data would suggest that there's at least another 30 years of a healthy vintage market. I use myself as evidence. I am 38. I grew up in the hey day of over-produced cards, 84-89. There were millions of kids like me, and now some of us (who knows what percentage?) are coming back to the hobby with disposal income and spending on the cards that we only dreamt about as kids. I see many collectors on this board around the same age with the same story. Barring any of life's circumstances that might cause a sell-off, many of us should be collecting into our 60s/70s (like another large segment on this board.) Therefore, I conclude we should be good for a while, and the current shiny market (healthy or not) should not have any bearing on that.

[packs]

Well I said next few decades because of life expectancy of the boomers. Most will die out in the next 20 years, and the rest in the next 30.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

My limited, purely anecdotal data would suggest that there's at least another 30 years of a healthy vintage market. I use myself as evidence. I am 38. I grew up in the hey day of over-produced cards, 84-89. There were millions of kids like me, and now some of us (who knows what percentage?) are coming back to the hobby with disposal income and spending on the cards that we only dreamt about as kids. I see many collectors on this board around the same age with the same story. Barring any of life's circumstances that might cause a sell-off, many of us should be collecting into our 60s/70s (like another large segment on this board.) Therefore, I conclude we should be good for a while, and the current shiny market (healthy or not) should not have any bearing on that.

This.

All of it.

Tom C

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

I'd say they're the largest market for 50's and 60's stuff.

The last time the card hobby was a "kids thing" was around 1990. Eventually, you're going to run out of nostalgic baby boomers and gen x-ers who are looking to put together post war sets they remembered as kids.

I think the post war market is eventually going to crash, maybe with exceptions like rookie HOF'ers who will probably always be in demand for HOF sets. I doubt in 10-15 years you're going to see as many people chasing 1959 Topps sets, etc.

What do you base these statements on? Every time I go into the local card shop, there are a good group of kids there.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

What do you base these statements on? Every time I go into the local card shop, there are a good group of kids there.

Same here, Bill.

I'm part of our Founder's Legacy program at work and one of the things we do is to partner with a local middle school to mentor to kids in various ways. This year, they've paired me up with a 12 year old boy (never know who you're going to get) that plays little league and his dad coaches the team...and he collects baseball cards.

Also, I have a 8 year old nephew that just recently came into my life (long story, but my brother didn't know about him). He also collects baseball cards.

To anyone that thinks card collecting is just for adults, go hang out in a card shop (a real card shop) for a couple hours this weekend and then see if you still believe that.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Same here, Bill.

I'm part of our Founder's Legacy program at work and one of the things we do is to partner with a local middle school to mentor to kids in various ways. This year, they've paired me up with a 12 year old boy (never know who you're going to get) that plays little league and his dad coaches the team...and he collects baseball cards.

Also, I have a 8 year old nephew that just recently came into my life (long story, but my brother didn't know about him). He also collects baseball cards.

To anyone that thinks card collecting is just for adults, go hang out in a card shop (a real card shop) for a couple hours this weekend and then see if you still believe that.

shiny and new can always be popular with kids...for a while...the question will be will these same kids keep at it and be willing to pay $200 for a common from 1909 in the future etc.....better yet be set collectors of vintage sets...

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

shiny and new can always be popular with kids...for a while...the question will be will these same kids keep at it and be willing to pay $200 for a common from 1909 in the future etc.....better yet be set collectors of vintage sets...

Not sure why not. I did. Many on this board did. I lionized vintage back in the day, but bought only the shiny new stuff (such as it was in the late 70's through the 80's). There are many such as myself and Sam S who posted earlier...we never dreamed as kids of one day having some income available to purchase the cards that we drooled over as kids. Any particular reason why the current generation should be considered so vastly different from ours? The people buying commons from 1909 or are vintage set collectors aren't just baby boomers and retirees. People who bought cards in the 80's and 90's as kids....some of them now buy those 1909 commons and collect vintage sets. Some of the kids buying today will become successful enough 20-30 years from now to do the same.

Not sure why you think the kids today are any different from the kids 30 years ago (like myself)?

Tom C

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Not sure why not. I did. Many on this board did. I lionized vintage back in the day, but bought only the shiny new stuff (such as it was in the late 70's through the 80's). There are many such as myself and Sam S who posted earlier...we never dreamed as kids of one day having some income available to purchase the cards that we drooled over as kids. Any particular reason why the current generation should be considered so vastly different from ours? The people buying commons from 1909 or are vintage set collectors aren't just baby boomers and retirees. People who bought cards in the 80's and 90's as kids....some of them now buy those 1909 commons and collect vintage sets. Some of the kids buying today will become successful enough 20-30 years from now to do the same.

Not sure why you think the kids today are any different from the kids 30 years ago (like myself)?

Tom C

Spot on.

[PolarBear]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

What do you base these statements on? Every time I go into the local card shop, there are a good group of kids there.

No card shops within 100 miles of here, so I can't speak to card shop experiences.

However, the only kids I ever see in the card sections of Target, Walmart, etc. are looking at Magic or Pokemon, or whatever is on the "kids" end of the card isle. I have never seen kids buying sports cards, only adults.

Add to that the fact that half the sports cards in stock are from last year, would give you the impression the hobby is on the decline.

[Orioles1954]

It's no longer a mainstream hobby and hasn't been for over 20 years. It has a niche and within that niche there are many additional niches. As long as those niches are at least maintaining their base it seems unlikely that the hobby will just one day collapse.

[ksabet]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

It's no longer a mainstream hobby and hasn't been for over 20 years. It has a niche and within that niche there are many additional niches. As long as those niches are at least maintaining their base it seems unlikely that the hobby will just one day collapse.

I think you have a niche for using the word niche

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

However, the only kids I ever see in the card sections of Target, Walmart, etc. are looking at Magic or Pokemon, or whatever is on the "kids" end of the card isle.

Funny that you mention this. I was at a shop this weekend and met a young guy named Randall. I didn't catch his age, but he told me that he has a two year old little boy. If I had to guess, I would say he was in his mid-twenties. It was his first time in the shop. He told me that he used to play Magic, but he felt it was time to "grow up" (those were his words) and make the transition into cards. He was asking me for advice on modern cards, but I couldn't help him. But my point is, that he was someone that was into gaming cards, but made the transition into bb cards. It does happen.

[RaidonCollects]

This hobby will not die for hundreds of years. As long as there is one person collecting the hobby is still alive. It's true that you don't see too many kids collection, but I have seen an awful lot of kids at the National this year. There is still hope.

~Owen

[Rich Klein]

Leon and Matt can verify this since they were at my show last Saturday but we had a nice grouping of kids (in part because every outdoor event they could have been involved with was rained out) and I would say we had perhaps 25-30 kids who attended our show last Saturday.

Now same came with mom and or dad but others were with mom and dad but they were the collectors In either case, we were all encouraged to see so many kids

Rich

[Laxcat]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Leon and Matt can verify this since they were at my show last Saturday but we had a nice grouping of kids (in part because every outdoor event they could have been involved with was rained out) and I would say we had perhaps 25-30 kids who attended our show last Saturday.

Now same came with mom and or dad but others were with mom and dad but they were the collectors In either case, we were all encouraged to see so many kids

Rich

Correct. Here's a little story.

8 year old kid asks if I have any vintage Miami Dolphins cards. I point him to the boxes that have 60's and 70's singles. Kid is decked out in Dolphins gear he probably knew more about the Dolphins than the rest of this board combined. He spends about 10 minutes going through the boxes. All the time rattling off what he knows about the team. He bought about $5 or $6 dollars worth of stuff. With his money. Not the biggest sale, but that is not what matters. I ended up giving him a Mercury Morris Rookie. I told him he earned it with his knowledge.
It made me smile to see someone his age actually interested in sports history. I think that is why most of us are in the hobby. I know it's the reason I still collect pictures of guys I never saw play.

I think if we take the time, when the opportunity presents, to talk to the younger collectors and get them excited about not just the monetary value of these cards but the about the people and events that these pieces of cardboard depict then we will have a good hobby in the future filled witty people that are there for the right reason.

He reminded me of myself. In the heyday of the shows I was the little imp running around wanting to look through your vintage stuff slowly building my little collection that meant the world to me.