Mantle Avalanche

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.

People probably said the same thing went it went from 1K to 3K, whenever that was.

[Delray Vintage]

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

I am concerned that there are a lot of people in the hobby who have a vested interest in feeding the frenzy for a hot card. Telling potential buyers in auction catalogs that Mantles are a great investment and they are likely to rise only fuels the bubble. Anyone who has one is happy with the meteoric rise, and anyone who gets a buyers commission is also thrilled to take 19%-20% of a rising price. I am a collector who bought the 52 at a decent price years ago. I am happy my card is worth a lot more, but as a collector I am concerned what this rise indicates for collectors. I know any collectible market has collectors, investors, and speculators. Each segment has its place but when speculators dominate, there is trouble ahead.

[Yoda]

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Yoda

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

Even the very rich take losses. Look at luxury real estate, the high end art market, jewelry. In a recession the uber rich, many of whom live well above their means, need to raise cash. They have lots of assets, but also lots of debt. Yes, the guys making a billion a year are immune, but the rest of the rich go into debt and bankruptcy like the rest of us. Just saying the guy who paid 500k for the psa 8 might need to sell in a financial crisis to prevent foreclosure on the beach house.

[Peter_Spaeth]

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...-to-nail-down/

[glynparson]

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

[MetsBaseball1973]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.