Mantle Avalanche

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

I am concerned that there are a lot of people in the hobby who have a vested interest in feeding the frenzy for a hot card. Telling potential buyers in auction catalogs that Mantles are a great investment and they are likely to rise only fuels the bubble. Anyone who has one is happy with the meteoric rise, and anyone who gets a buyers commission is also thrilled to take 19%-20% of a rising price. I am a collector who bought the 52 at a decent price years ago. I am happy my card is worth a lot more, but as a collector I am concerned what this rise indicates for collectors. I know any collectible market has collectors, investors, and speculators. Each segment has its place but when speculators dominate, there is trouble ahead.

[Yoda]

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Yoda

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

Even the very rich take losses. Look at luxury real estate, the high end art market, jewelry. In a recession the uber rich, many of whom live well above their means, need to raise cash. They have lots of assets, but also lots of debt. Yes, the guys making a billion a year are immune, but the rest of the rich go into debt and bankruptcy like the rest of us. Just saying the guy who paid 500k for the psa 8 might need to sell in a financial crisis to prevent foreclosure on the beach house.

[Peter_Spaeth]

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...-to-nail-down/

[glynparson]

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

Who knows who is right about the long term price. The back and forth on the Mantle mania on this board is interesting and fun to consider. My cards have been a much better financial investment than my stocks/real estate. I bought most in the late 1990's and some in the recession of 2008. I am always a little afraid that these printed cardboard pieces have no intrinsic value and will eventually be worthless. I know there will always be a market for rare cards, but when my selling mantle can fund a new Mercedes or a college education I shake my head in wonder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Who knows who is right about the long term price. The back and forth on the Mantle mania on this board is interesting and fun to consider. My cards have been a much better financial investment than my stocks/real estate. I bought most in the late 1990's and some in the recession of 2008. I am always a little afraid that these printed cardboard pieces have no intrinsic value and will eventually be worthless. I know there will always be a market for rare cards, but when my selling mantle can fund a new Mercedes or a college education I shake my head in wonder.

Yeah I agree re no intrinsic value but that is true of almost any collectible, no? As long as people have disposable income, they will value collectibles, it's human nature And if they don't have any income it will be because the economy is so bad that stocks won't be worth anything either.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I agree re no intrinsic value but that is true of almost any collectible, no? As long as people have disposable income, they will value collectibles, it's human nature And if they don't have any income it will be because the economy is so bad that stocks won't be worth anything either.

Absolutely a big +1. People like collecting history, especially Americana in this country, and a key card has every bit as much intrinsic value as any other collectible. The card is an instant, just a single moment in the prime of the player's life left behind, which connects you to him and takes you back to the time. That is value--psychological value, but substantial value nonetheless. The 1933 Double Eagle that auctioned off at $7+ million would have a bullion value of a microscopic fraction of that, and people don't spend 8 figures on a '60's Ferrari to drive it around, not even at the Monteray vintage car races. They spend that kind of money because they like these objects, they gain prestige in owning the best for their collections, and they are able to do so.

Good posts,

Larry

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

While the 52T has been been taking off like a rocket, the same seems to be holding true for the 51B. I had been in the market for one all year and then my hopes of getting a nice one -centered, no roller marks - in a low grade steadily dwindled. I finally ended up getting a PSA 2 with those criteria but I spent more than I wanted to (I began the year with hopes of getting a PSA 3 around $3K - ended up getting a 2 for closer to $4K). Three PSA 2s went over the weekend - Goldin and a couple on ebay in the $3500-4500 range. Is any of this price correction for a seemingly undervalued card? If the 52T averages $11K in PSA2, certainly the "true rookie" card should be at least half as much in same condition? Speculators or price correction amongst collectors?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

While the 52T has been been taking off like a rocket, the same seems to be holding true for the 51B. I had been in the market for one all year and then my hopes of getting a nice one -centered, no roller marks - in a low grade steadily dwindled. I finally ended up getting a PSA 2 with those criteria but I spent more than I wanted to (I began the year with hopes of getting a PSA 3 around $3K - ended up getting a 2 for closer to $4K). Three PSA 2s went over the weekend - Goldin and a couple on ebay in the $3500-4500 range. Is any of this price correction for a seemingly undervalued card? If the 52T averages $11K in PSA2, certainly the "true rookie" card should be at least half as much in same condition? Speculators or price correction amongst collectors?

eh its a whole different animal..many collectors don't even collect bowman..only topps for postwar......plus dead centered can impact value as much as 20-40% versus cards of the same grade in these waterfront property cards..

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

eh its a whole different animal..many collectors don't even collect bowman..only topps for postwar......plus dead centered can impact value as much as 20-40% versus cards of the same grade in these waterfront property cards..

I think the difference could be 100% or more. Take that 6 that just sold for 120k. And off center tilted 6 that just missed being OC would probably go for for less than half of that

[MetsBaseball1973]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

like I said, if we see the exact cards that had huge price increases going back on the market, like the 100k cards, then we will know its flippers and not guys like MattyC..we can only hope there are more MattyCs in the world and not flippers but time will tell.....im sure people will draw attention on this forum when the see a same card hit the market again in a year or two.....no way those sellers are those people that loved the card for the intrinsic pleasure its a flipper..we shall see

[Yoda]

I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!

That would be a treat, indeed, for those of us holding Wagners far rarer than the T206--a rising tide lifts all ships!

Happy collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

+1 on both. The "big boys" can throw hundreds of thousands (or more) around like nickels--they aren't "investing," they just want and can afford the best available. It's only a sign that our hobby is maturing, just like coins did, but faster, due to the facilitation of communication between prospective buyers and sellers regarding any scarce to rare items through use of the internet. As I've said before, in the '90's, you used to either have to go to a lot of quality shows to find that highly sought after card, or get lucky through an SCD ad. Now, the large number of prime auction houses and a continuing search on ebay makes task of finding even a pretty rare item far easier.

Regards,

Larry