Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

No, he's not overrated. The strikeouts are an issue that he'll have to rectify, but I project him as a superstar for the next decade plus. Look at his stat lines from Low A to the majors, that kind of quick movement from class to class with little to no regression or struggle just doesn't happen. As for the strikeouts, he will spend the next 4-5 years in the lineup surrounded by Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber, and Soler (who I would gamble could be the best of the bunch) which will mean plenty of pitches to hit. The bust talk was all the rage with Harper last off season and he only turned out an MVP season. Give the kid some time.

Again, Harper isn't even 23 yet. It makes sense to give him time to adjust. Harper's BABIP is still lower than Brant's. (Bryant .378 vs Harper's.369). Bryant's going to have to keep his BABIP very high to compensate for his high SO. Bryant didn't just have a high Strike Out year. He now holds the record for most SO by a rookie. So unless he can manage to put the ball in play more as his BABIP starts to average out as he gets older than he will be just another Ryan Howard.

Think about it this way of the Top 30 BABIP in 2015 he ranks 5th, but his BA of .275 is second lowest to Anthony Gose's .254 and his BABIP was only .352 with a 27.1% SO% (compared to Bryant's 30.6%). With such a high BABIP his average should reflect it, but it doesn't. I really think the most comparable rookie year of the last 15 years would be Mark Reynold's 2007 season.

Mark Reynold's:
Games:111 PA:414 HR:17 R:62 RBI:62 SB:0 BB%:8.9% K%31.2 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.279 OBP:.349 SLG:.495

Kris Bryant:
Games:151 PA:650 HR:26 R:87 RBI:99 SB:13 BB%11.8 % K%30.6 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.275 OBP:.369 SLG:.488

He ranks 23rd of all rookies since 2000 in the highest K%, but 6th with players with more than 100 games in their RY. There is only one with more games and that is Michael Taylor.

The only stat that seems to make him look great is that he Ranks 3rd in WAR for Rookies since 2000.

I just can't fathom putting so many eggs in that basket with just one season under his belt and with so many negatives in his batting.

[packs]

Bryant had more strikeouts than hits last year and still managed to hit .275. But that will not happen consistently and we've seen what a stable BABIP did to Austin Jackson, who has floundered, though he isn't the hitter Bryant is.

If Bryant can manage to still hit above 270 he'll be a super star. But if he can't, he'll probably drop down to the 230 / 240 range and be a Mark Reynolds.

[Rookiemonster]

I was not impressed by what I seen out of Bryant . I was much more impressed by joc pederson . You never really know what a player will be . To many variables .

Look over the history of young guns in baseball. So many fizzle out fast .

[packs]

Pederson really struggled the second half of the season. But he does have a defensive upside that makes him valuable. I hope he rebounds, but I don't think he'll ever hit for average.

[Peter_Spaeth]

This is the great thing about baseball. There is almost no such thing as a can't miss superstar. The commons bins are full of players most people expected to be superstars, but bombed. By contrast, everyone knew KOBE Bryant was going to be great as a teenager. Same with Gretzky. Same with all sorts of other guys. Sure, there are flops, but I am willing to bet it's a much smaller percentage. And, in baseball, even after five or ten great years guys can fall off a cliff. Maybe there are very sporadic examples in other sports, but not nearly as many as in baseball.

[packs]

I think football gives baseball a run for its money in terms of potential busts. But you're right about basketball and hockey. No one questioned Lebron when he came in. Or Sydney Crosby.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In hockey "they" (whoever they is) seem to know sometimes about a guy at a ridiculously young age, like early teens. That was true of Orr, and Gretzky, and Lemieux, and maybe Crosby.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is the great thing about baseball. There is almost no such thing as a can't miss superstar. The commons bins are full of players most people expected to be superstars, but bombed. By contrast, everyone knew KOBE Bryant was going to be great as a teenager. Same with Gretzky. Same with all sorts of other guys. Sure, there are flops, but I am willing to bet it's a much smaller percentage. And, in baseball, even after five or ten great years guys can fall off a cliff. Maybe there are very sporadic examples in other sports, but not nearly as many as in baseball.

Great minds think alike. At this point, I think he has a better chance of being Dave Kingman than an elongated Harmon Killebrew. Way too many strikeouts for me, and that goes for Trout too (the fastball 5-6 inches above the waist is Trout's weakness, followed by a slider breaking low and away, into the dirt. He likes them low, and after getting a strike he can't handle, will leave the zone for the slider. Mantle used to hit that very same fastball 450-500 feet). Rick Reichardt was once the new Mantle too, in 1966--Gee, guess how that worked out! Plus, a lot of things can happen in the next decade or so. Pete Reiser was a sure-fire HOF'er, until he proved beyond doubt his affinity for banging himself senseless into the concrete outfield walls of the time. Cesar Cedeno was going to be the next Clemente in the '60's, until...who knows what happened--the talent certainly ran out. Also, even Bill James, when asked early in the decade to predict the player who would hit the most homeruns in the '90's, chose Phil Plantier--Phil who???

Patience, guys. The phenoms' cards will still be there ten to 15 years from now, and it isn't at all unlikely that the cost for them will be less. Take it from a collector who was there throughout the speculative years of the early to mid '90's!

May collecting bring you joy,

Larry

[bn2cardz]

I know it is early in the season, but the Kris Bryant stats we are seeing thus far are what I was expecting to see. Sure he could just be in a slump, but the main thing is that he actually is hitting the same stats as last year except his BABIP has fallen to what is considered the average.

With 6 games under his belt he had a similar BB%, but his K% had dropped by 10%, that means if he had the same luck as last year his AVG should have been higher... but he isn't seeing the same luck and his BABIP dropped to .300 from last year's staggering .378. When his BABIP his average dropped with it bringing him to .231. If he hits more home runs through the season the lower batting average can be forgiven, but that only goes so far, ask Adam Dunn. Kris Bryant has very similar stats to Adam Dunn with the exception of a very high BABIP in 2015.



An interesting article from Feb that goes more into what I was trying to explain.
http://www.cubsinsider.com/kris-brya...te-lucky-2015/