Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[packs]

Pederson really struggled the second half of the season. But he does have a defensive upside that makes him valuable. I hope he rebounds, but I don't think he'll ever hit for average.

[Peter_Spaeth]

This is the great thing about baseball. There is almost no such thing as a can't miss superstar. The commons bins are full of players most people expected to be superstars, but bombed. By contrast, everyone knew KOBE Bryant was going to be great as a teenager. Same with Gretzky. Same with all sorts of other guys. Sure, there are flops, but I am willing to bet it's a much smaller percentage. And, in baseball, even after five or ten great years guys can fall off a cliff. Maybe there are very sporadic examples in other sports, but not nearly as many as in baseball.

[packs]

I think football gives baseball a run for its money in terms of potential busts. But you're right about basketball and hockey. No one questioned Lebron when he came in. Or Sydney Crosby.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In hockey "they" (whoever they is) seem to know sometimes about a guy at a ridiculously young age, like early teens. That was true of Orr, and Gretzky, and Lemieux, and maybe Crosby.

[bn2cardz]

Right, so I don't understand why people invest so strongly in rookies.

Especially one with such a major flaw such as strikeouts. I would keep a Bryant if pulled from a pack if I didn't think his prices were so over inflated right now.

Instead the players I think worth investing/collecting are players like Trout, Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Ichiro, Cano, Beltre, Votto. These players have established careers or solid career starts and most of their cards are found for so much less than Bryant's (major exception is Trout).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Right, so I don't understand why people invest so strongly in rookies.

Especially one with such a major flaw such as strikeouts. I would keep a Bryant if pulled from a pack if I didn't think his prices were so over inflated right now.

Instead the players I think worth investing/collecting are players like Trout, Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Ichiro, Cano, Beltre, Votto. These players have established careers or solid career starts and most of their cards are found for so much less than Bryant's (major exception is Trout).

I understand the upside for Cabrera, he could set records and be among the very top few players ever statistically, but other than Trout who is still quite young, what's the big upside for those other guys who are midway or most of the way through their career already?

[packs]

Ichiro I think will get incredibly difficult after his career is over. I bought a signed rookie this year and I expect it to get very pricey as soon as he retires. Of course that's assuming he moves to Japan.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I understand the upside for Cabrera, he could set records and be among the very top few players ever statistically, but other than Trout who is still quite young, what's the big upside for those other guys who are midway or most of the way through their career already?

Well since this is more a thread on Bryant I will summarize. They are all on what could be HOF tracks with low cost cards in comparison to each years new "it" rookie(s). Basically I find them to be closer to a "sure thing" than Bryant.

Cano - 11 years in and already HOFm 123. He has the 3rd highest SLG for 2nd basemen with at least 1500 games behind Hornsby and Kent. Yet non like Kent his defensive skills are top notch ranking 1st among active players in PO and Assists at 2B.

Goldschmidt - Only 5 years in but has an OPS+ of 151. 3 All star games, 2 gold gloves, 2 silver sluggers, and came in 2nd for MVP twice. He has lead twice in PO (for all positions), and twice was top 5 in home runs.

Beltre - with 18 seasons under his belt he ranks 3rd in WAR behind Pujols and ARod. While still not tapering off yet like the other two having put up a 7.0 and 5.8 the last two seasons and not getting below 5 since 2009. He has a top 5 AVG 5 times, top 5 SLG% 4 times while accumulating the top defensive WAR for active players.

Votto - 9 Seasons in he is ranked 6th in Active Slugging .534, and 5th in Active Average .311. He has lead in BB and OBP 4 times each. He also boasts a OPS+ of 156 (2nd behind Pujols, also good enough for 19th career). His 43.4 WAR ranks highest for players with less than 10 years.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is the great thing about baseball. There is almost no such thing as a can't miss superstar. The commons bins are full of players most people expected to be superstars, but bombed. By contrast, everyone knew KOBE Bryant was going to be great as a teenager. Same with Gretzky. Same with all sorts of other guys. Sure, there are flops, but I am willing to bet it's a much smaller percentage. And, in baseball, even after five or ten great years guys can fall off a cliff. Maybe there are very sporadic examples in other sports, but not nearly as many as in baseball.

Great minds think alike. At this point, I think he has a better chance of being Dave Kingman than an elongated Harmon Killebrew. Way too many strikeouts for me, and that goes for Trout too (the fastball 5-6 inches above the waist is Trout's weakness, followed by a slider breaking low and away, into the dirt. He likes them low, and after getting a strike he can't handle, will leave the zone for the slider. Mantle used to hit that very same fastball 450-500 feet). Rick Reichardt was once the new Mantle too, in 1966--Gee, guess how that worked out! Plus, a lot of things can happen in the next decade or so. Pete Reiser was a sure-fire HOF'er, until he proved beyond doubt his affinity for banging himself senseless into the concrete outfield walls of the time. Cesar Cedeno was going to be the next Clemente in the '60's, until...who knows what happened--the talent certainly ran out. Also, even Bill James, when asked early in the decade to predict the player who would hit the most homeruns in the '90's, chose Phil Plantier--Phil who???

Patience, guys. The phenoms' cards will still be there ten to 15 years from now, and it isn't at all unlikely that the cost for them will be less. Take it from a collector who was there throughout the speculative years of the early to mid '90's!

May collecting bring you joy,

Larry

[bn2cardz]

I know it is early in the season, but the Kris Bryant stats we are seeing thus far are what I was expecting to see. Sure he could just be in a slump, but the main thing is that he actually is hitting the same stats as last year except his BABIP has fallen to what is considered the average.

With 6 games under his belt he had a similar BB%, but his K% had dropped by 10%, that means if he had the same luck as last year his AVG should have been higher... but he isn't seeing the same luck and his BABIP dropped to .300 from last year's staggering .378. When his BABIP his average dropped with it bringing him to .231. If he hits more home runs through the season the lower batting average can be forgiven, but that only goes so far, ask Adam Dunn. Kris Bryant has very similar stats to Adam Dunn with the exception of a very high BABIP in 2015.



An interesting article from Feb that goes more into what I was trying to explain.
http://www.cubsinsider.com/kris-brya...te-lucky-2015/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

Oh I know. I almost didn't post it because I knew that could be the argument. I am not saying that this season is going to be all lost and this is proof. My point was only that if his BABIP stays in the "normal" area as it has in the past 7 games, yet he doesn't improve his K% than this is the type of stats you will see from him more than not.

I believe he will be hitting home runs but I really don't see his future being any more productive than Adam Dunn's. Adam Dunn's 2010 season may be a comparable to the best we can expect from Bryant from here on out. That wasn't a horrible season, but it benefited from a .329 BABIP. That isn't a bad number and is manageable for a career, but highly unlikely for a home run hitter.

[packs]

It doesn't matter how good you are, no one can survive in the league or experience prolonged success striking out more times than they get a hit.