Clayton Kershaw

[chaddurbin]

kershaw's fastball has a natural rise in its movement, part of the reason batters don't make solid contact against him. he'll be fine.

edit: i read a recent stat a couple days ago where kershaw has 4.1war-share (fangraph) for the year and 2.9 for may, while second place is a tie of syndergaard and jose quintana...with a 2.7war total for the SEASON. kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

kershaw's fastball has a natural rise in its movement, part of the reason batters don't make solid contact against him. he'll be fine.

edit: i read a recent stat a couple days ago where kershaw has 4.1war-share (fangraph) for the year and 2.9 for may, while second place is a tie of syndergaard and jose quintana...with a 2.7war total for the SEASON. kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

Kershaw is ridiculous. The command he's been showing thus far this season is pretty much unprecedented.

[the 'stache]

Another pitcher I expect to see a jump from soon is Gerrit Cole. His FIP and WHIP are up some from last year, but I have this sneaking feeling that by this time next year, he's going to be included in the discussion of best starters in the game.

Oh man, just saw Ali died.

[chaddurbin]

jofer is absolutely a beast and great young pitcher, but between him and thor i'd probably give the nod to syndergaard. the cleaner bill of health, the less violent delivery, and the drama-free attitude.

gerrit cole is pretty awesome but i don't consider him to be in the same class as the other 2, his good stuff has never translated into Ks...maybe he pitches to contact(?) i don't know but if you have overpowering stuff you should have more strikeouts then he does. he also doesn't look to be in the best shape and athletic like the other 2. something's off with him, whether mentally or physically that's not allowing him to take that ELITE step where the whole team's attitude changes the day you take the mound.

[Dewey]

Kershaw update from his last start: 100 2/3 innings pitched. 122 k. 6bb.

Surrounded by a bunch of gutless bats hovering just above (or below-Grandal ) the Mendoza line.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

gerrit cole is pretty awesome but i don't consider him to be in the same class as the other 2, his good stuff has never translated into Ks...maybe he pitches to contact(?) i don't know but if you have overpowering stuff you should have more strikeouts then he does.

He struck out 202 batters in 208 IP last year, and had 138 Ks in 138 IP in 2014. Just how many strike outs does he need? These guys striking out 10 + batters per 9 IP are the rare exception. Cole's strikeout rate is just fine.

[Dewey]

Continues to lead league in innings pitched. Another win. 11k. 1bb. Though the bb should have been k #12. A clear bad call by ump. Even if it was borderline, and it wasn't, you'd think if anyone gets benefit of the doubt it would be Kershaw.

133k 7bb on the season. If that bogus walk would have been a k, Kershaw would have sole season record for 10k games with no walks which he currently shares with Big Unit and Schilling.

[the 'stache]

Kershaw is on a roll. His last ten starts:

9-0, 78 IP, 10 ER, 1.15 ERA, 101 K, 4 BB, 43 H, 3 HR, 0.603 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 IP, 0.5 BB/9 IP

He now leads the National League in wins, ERA, CG, SHO, IP, K, ERA +, FIP, WHIP, H/9 IP, BB/9 IP, and K:BB.

His ERA + coming into tonight was 243. I assume it went up slightly after tonight. 6 hits allowed in 7 innings, 1 run, 0 walks, 8 K.

The guy is just nuts. Too bad the Dodgers can't surround him with a better team.

[the 'stache]

Clayton Kershaw now has the highest ERA + of all-time (since 1901, minimum 1,700 innings pitched).

[chaddurbin]

more fun stats: if you exclude all eight starts in 2016 in which Kershaw didn't issue a walk, his 59 remaining strikeouts and seven walks would still give him the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.43) in MLB.

that's almost as funny as when he wasn't chosen for the all-star game initially last year but was a replacement for scherzer getting hurt...the best pitcher would not have been at the showcase game for the league if it wasn't for max being hurt. dude practically had to beg to get in the game. in no other sport does the league ACTIVELY sabotage its own stars and legacies and pull bs like the mlb, no wonder the sport is declining in all the young demographics.

also i'm uncomfortable when this thread is bumped, feels like a jinx waiting to happen.

[the 'stache]

Sorry about any possible jinx, but it's too much fun to walk about him.

A couple more numbers to show how brilliant he's been this year.

Since 1901, of all pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings, Kershaw's 0.657 WHIP is the best single season mark in Major League History. And that will go down slightly, as Baseball Reference's database has not yet updated to reflect last night's games. He pitched 7 innings, gave up six hits, 0 walks. His WHIP last night was 0.857.

His 2016 FIP (again, before last night's update) is also historic. 1.64 right now, and that will drop, too. But as it stands, since 1901, that's the 17th best mark in baseball history by a starter, and the six guys directly ahead of him are within 0.002 of him. Oh, and of those pitchers, only one starter is from the modern era-Pedro Martinez. Pedro put up a 1.61 WHIP in 2001 (he pitched only 116 2/3 innings), and in 1999, he put up a spectacular 1.39 FIP in 213 1/3 innings. Every other guy on the list--Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Chief Bender, Rube Waddell, Ed Walsh and Red Ames--you know you're having an historic season.

141 K's and 7 walks. Unreal.

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

more fun stats: if you exclude all eight starts in 2016 in which Kershaw didn't issue a walk, his 59 remaining strikeouts and seven walks would still give him the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.43) in MLB.

that's almost as funny as when he wasn't chosen for the all-star game initially last year but was a replacement for scherzer getting hurt...the best pitcher would not have been at the showcase game for the league if it wasn't for max being hurt. dude practically had to beg to get in the game. in no other sport does the league ACTIVELY sabotage its own stars and legacies and pull bs like the mlb, no wonder the sport is declining in all the young demographics.

also i'm uncomfortable when this thread is bumped, feels like a jinx waiting to happen.

[clydepepper]

Bill- We are enjoying your analysis. However, I found an error and a typo - highlighted.

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Sorry about any possible jinx, but it's too much fun to walk about him.

A couple more numbers to show how brilliant he's been this year.

Since 1901, of all pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings, Kershaw's 0.657 WHIP is the best single season mark in Major League History. And that will go down slightly, as Baseball Reference's database has not yet updated to reflect last night's games. He pitched 7 innings, gave up six hits, 0 walks. His WHIP last night was 0.857.

His 2016 FIP (again, before last night's update) is also historic. 1.64 right now, and that will drop, too. But as it stands, since 1901, that's the 17th best mark in baseball history by a starter, and the six guys directly ahead of him are within 0.002 of him. Oh, and of those pitchers, only one starter is from the modern era-Pedro Martinez. Pedro put up a 1.61 WHIP in 2001 (he pitched only 116 2/3 innings), and in 1999, he put up a spectacular 1.39 FIP in 213 1/3 innings. Every other guy on the list--Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Chief Bender, Rube Waddell, Ed Walsh and Red Ames--you know you're having an historic season.

141 K's and 7 walks. Unreal.

[packs]

Hoping to see another Triple Crown this year. This guy is unbelievable.

[the 'stache]

I wonder what, principally, is to explain for the jump in his strikeout rate the last three years. Between 2011 and 2013, he won two Cy Youngs, and was runner up in the other season. His K/9 IP rate was 9.2. The last three years, that's jumped considerably; a full 2 Ks to 11.2. His walk rate in the first three year span was 2.2/9 IP, and even before this season's historic start, he was averaging 1.5 BB/9 IP between 2014 and '15. So, his walk rate had dropped by about 1/3.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I wonder what, principally, is to explain for the jump in his strikeout rate the last three years. Between 2011 and 2013, he won two Cy Youngs, and was runner up in the other season. His K/9 IP rate was 9.2. The last three years, that's jumped considerably; a full 2 Ks to 11.2. His walk rate in the first three year span was 2.2/9 IP, and even before this season's historic start, he was averaging 1.5 BB/9 IP between 2014 and '15. So, his walk rate had dropped by about 1/3.

Bill- without being absolutely sure that any one thing is a 'principal reason' for the statistical enhancements you mentioned:


I would make a few educated guesses:


1.) His learning curve has improved the more he applies what he already knows works and what, if anything, does not


2.) His grasp of individual umpire's strike-zones has improved...as have their expectations of his deliveries.


3.) He is probably physically stronger


4.) That added strength allows him to 'finish up' designed 'out' pitches more efficiently


5.) He has learned to a more certain degree what he can expect from his defense and what he will have to do on his own;


...in short, hard as it is to believe, he just got better...and that trend won't go on forever...so let's enjoy it while we can!

[frankbmd]

It looks like Kershaw forgot to pack his WHIPS and FIPS for the current road trip.

[clydepepper]

That's what he gets for scheduling against GOT finale.

[Dewey]

Not good tonight. But he battled. And for as often as he picks up the team, they didn't pick him up. Typical.

The first steal attempt of the season against Kershaw today. Out at second. Plus his first intentional walk of the year. Rockies at home up next.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

As a Dodger fan on the East Coast I never get to see him pitch. I of course was watching tonight. So I think it's my fault. I turned off the game after the bases clearing double and apparently the world righted itself shortly thereafter. I apologize for not understanding the full extent of my powers.

[the 'stache]

Damn, double post. Sorry.

[Jeff1970Red]

He has developed his slider, he had Harper stepping in the bucket every time he threw it the other night and righties have no shot at it when he is snapping it down and in just off the inside corner. It would be nice if he started going up and in come playoff time. He gets in trouble and continues to pound the strike zone instead of dusting hitters off the plate. He may be just too nice a guy to do this, but this is what made Pedro, Randy, Roger, so dominant come playoff time.

[clydepepper]

Currently, the 7th overall (and 6th pitcher) pick in the 2006 MLB draft is leading the majors in the following stats:

IP, SO, ShO, ERA, WHIP, QS, K/BB, P/IP, AGS & WAR

QS= quality starts
AGS= average game score

The six players picked before Kershaw were:

1. Royals- Luke Hochevar, RHP
2. Rockies- Greg Reynolds, RHP ( WHO? )
3. Devil Rays- Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Pirates- Brad Lincoln, RHP
5. Mariners- Brandon Morrow, RHP
6. Tigers- Andrew Miller, LHP

...and a few drafted after Kershaw:

10. Giants- Tim Lincecum, RHP
11. Diamondbacks- Max Scherzer, RHP

[chaddurbin]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

so yea this was a jinx. kershaw has been out for a month now, and yes he still leads all pitchers in WAR. my hunch is at some point next month he'll be shut down for 2016. they don't want to do it right now because of the trading deadline/leverage and all that.

urias/deleon/puig/verdugo for chris sale, let's do it chicago!

[bravos4evr]

I suspect he will end up with a Pedro like career, this huge peak and a swift decline. Back injuries tend to linger and shorten careers.

Pedro had a great peak, but he isn't a top 10 pitcher because of longevity. You can't give guys credit for innings they never pitched.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I suspect he will end up with a Pedro like career, this huge peak and a swift decline. Back injuries tend to linger and shorten careers.

Pedro had a great peak, but he isn't a top 10 pitcher because of longevity. You can't give guys credit for innings they never pitched.

Truth be told, I have always worried about his windup...and Alex Wood's is very similar.

Herky-Jerky windup like theirs' always put extra stress on the back.

Sad to see...but I'm still hopeful for him to return.

[Touch'EmAll]

Yes, Kershaw indeed does have an odd pitching motion, herky jerky. I hope him the best and would love to see him strut his stuff a bunch more years, but???

I remember watching Bert Blyleven when he was with the Angels. The most smooth and fluid pitching motion I ever saw - pure grace.

[Topnotchsy]

(Responding to a number of comments)

Kershaw has been very durable to this point, and he's a much bigger person than Pedro so I don't think there's a strong reason to assume he'll break down the same way.

Regarding Pedro's ranking though, I do believe (and think I am far from alone) that he had arguably the most dominant peak of any pitcher ever and despite his relatively short career is a top 5-7 pitcher of all-time.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

(Responding to a number of comments)

Kershaw has been very durable to this point, and he's a much bigger person than Pedro so I don't think there's a strong reason to assume he'll break down the same way.

Regarding Pedro's ranking though, I do believe (and think I am far from alone) that he had arguably the most dominant peak of any pitcher ever and despite his relatively short career is a top 5-7 pitcher of all-time.

Back injuries can linger though. So much energy transitions through the back that as a pitcher he may have to either dial back the velocity or get used to the cortizone shots.

As far as Pedro is concerned, I have a tough time putting a guy in the top 10 all time when he doesn't have 3000 innings pitched in the big leagues. Sure his 7 year peak was epic, but for guys like Clemens (pre roids) Maddux, WJ, Young, Ryan, Big Unit...etc who threw 5000+ innings and kept a very high level of production for 15+ years they are at another level.

Pedro was a shadow of himself at 34 and done by 36 (tho he lingered for two bad seasons )

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Yes, Kershaw indeed does have an odd pitching motion, herky jerky. I hope him the best and would love to see him strut his stuff a bunch more years, but???

I remember watching Bert Blyleven when he was with the Angels. The most smooth and fluid pitching motion I ever saw - pure grace.

Cliff Lee and, in an earlier time, Floyd Bannister were joys to watch...like a ballet!

Shortly after he was drafted, Bannister pitched just a couple of games here with the Columbus Astros and he was fun to watch.

The danger with a smooth, very repeatable windup is, without great off speed pitches, it is far easier to time.

[bravos4evr]

Here's a question:


If Kershaw never comes back from his back issues is he a HOF'er? (I would say no, but only because of less than 2000 innings bugs me, tho I can see the Koufax argument being made)