Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

Here is My opinion of what is going on:

1. Record low interest rates pushing people toward risk assets.
2. Money laundering
3. Rampant speculation
4. People buying on emotion


Stuff like this always ends well. Be careful. Please note I do not blame pwcc for any of this, they are simply a successful business in the midst of this.

+1

[bravos4evr]

One good thing that has come from all this ,IMO, is that raw cards seem to have dropped a fair bit. I got a raw Waddell T206 for $35 that probably grades as a PSA1. I got a raw Bonds Tiffany rookie for $15, raw 68 Yaz in damn near mint condition for $8 and am about to add a very rare and desirable raw pre-war card for peanuts as well. It seems that the rush to nab high PSA graded cards has left a lot of nice stuff that is ungraded going for really low prices.

[Stetson_1883]

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

[bravos4evr]

deleted

[pokerplyr80]

Time to sell the collection and stock up on guns, ammo, bottled water, and canned food?

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Time to sell the collection and stock up on guns, ammo, bottled water, and canned food?

Don't forget batteries, a flashlight, candles and matches

Steve

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

There is no disputing that the current debt globally is unsustainable. You will continue to see the treasury yields fall to reduce the interest expense to prolong the inevitable which is indeed a serious financial issue as you suggest. That said it isn't stopping people from buying luxury real estate, 170 million dollar pieces of art, 52 million dollar cars and so on.

If indeed we see an event of epic proportion that is as serious as you believe is coming, the best investment one could make today is guns, ammunition and silver coins. If all paper money becomes worthless than so to will trading cards but who cares. Your F'ed regardless so why not enjoy them while you can.

The super rich will be safe in an environment like the one you describe as they will buy large plots of land before paper money has no value and be self sufficient should they need to be. Anyone buying a $500,000 baseball card has to be liquid for at least 10 million or more I would think and perhaps even higher. They will find a way to survive don't you worry. In the mean time they can whip out their rare cards and be reminded of how awesome they are and also be reminded that they can afford a piece of cardboard that very few can.

[ALR-bishop]

Wish I was younger. I am going to miss all that stuff

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Wish I was younger. I am going to miss all that stuff

LOL. +1!

Hi, Al,

Larry

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

Tidal, not tital.

Have a nice day yourself, Sir!

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Paul S

Tidal, not tital.

Have a nice day yourself, Sir!

Since you are proofreading, you missed "ubsurd" as well.

[WhenItWasAHobby]

First off, this latest phenomenon of skyrocketing high-grade rookie cards from the '50's and '60s makes leaves me highly skeptical. I can recall the superficial manipulation of silver prices in the late 1970's by the Hunt brothers and there was another event in the mid-90's where modern rookie cards were being horded and re-sold on the early days of the internet by a group of dealers that also ended badly. Obviously, some unknown person or persons are jacking up the prices of these cards and it's not the natural progression of hobbyists at-large.

I also have a great distrust for anything associated with PSA. These ridiculously high prices will only bring more scammers out of the woodwork and will only elevate the frequency of card altering, card restoration, phony holders and flips, questionable bump-ups among many of the well-documented PSA-related scandals.

So in the final analysis, it's the label and the holder that's the commodity - not the card and that's not a good thing.

[scotgreb]

I was following this Gibson . . . A mid-grade that sold for nearly 10x VCP.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/351767229283...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

[ruth_rookie]

Originally Posted by WhenItWasAHobby

I also have a great distrust for anything associated with PSA. These ridiculously high prices will only bring more scammers out of the woodwork and will only elevate the frequency of card altering, card restoration, phony holders and flips, questionable bump-ups among many of the well-documented PSA-related scandals.

So in the final analysis, it's the label and the holder that's the commodity - not the card and that's not a good thing.

Damn, Dan. Did you have a crystal ball? Well done, sir.

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

if we mention your promo can we get a discount on purchases from your ebay store

[sbfinley]

Thanks to Brent for posting, as from experience I attest he cares about the hobby foremost. I disagree though, and believe (using nothing but rationality) that the market has to correct at some point. Which is the most likely scenario? Something, collectible in nature, that has risen 500%-1000% in the span of a couple dozen months will continue to exponentially grow or that something collectible in nature that has risen 500%-1000% in a span of a couple dozen months will stagnate?

Common sense tells me it obviously won't continue growing at the same pace. I don't understand why the only two futures the market holds in the vast majority of collector's minds are "exponential growth" and "collapse". The two most popular phrases in the hobby are now "don't miss the train" and "don't get left holding the bag." Couldn't it, you know, just settle and correct? Sports card are hot investments right now, but I'm assuming hot investments are hot when they're cheap. I'm baffled that smart people with plenty of money (and obviously, surely, have heard of buy low - sell high) think we're just at the start of market growth. I don't know, could be wrong. Personally I don't have a dog in the hunt. If I can afford something in a 9 I buy a 9. If I can only afford a 2 my heart doesn't really break.

Happy collecting guys.