Heritage prices are revealing of market (already)

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

Yeah, not until I start selling.

[Bram99]

I think the Reggie may just have more chasers right now, but I can't believe that demand is durable. It's about scarcity. The pre-war cards have had a higher percentage of the full total population found, and if great condition, already graded. High sale prices like the Reggie will cause more submissions of the card - there are many more out there than the pre-war cards. More graded Reggie RC 9's will cause the price to go down. Pre-war is the better bet for long-term value in my opinion.

[JustinD]

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

yup.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

yeah, I was mostly agreeing but saying 87% right seemed...well weird!


I do think that much of this price boom is less than 100 guys selling various cards to each other and all trying to flip for more and more profit. Eventually this post war boom will fall, and fall badly. I DO think that the floor won't be what it was prior to this boom tho.

but hey, you might be right and it does a beanie baby. (which I would love, too many Aaron cards are out of my price range right now compared to the first time I bought them years ago )

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

Heck, since the two PSA 9 '63 Topps Rose's went for $150K and $132K on ebay last month, the last two PSA 9s, just in the past two weeks, have gone for $86K and $82K (and the one that sold for $86K, IMHO, is the best of the four).

Steve