Most overrated baseball stats????

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by steve B

I don't entirely agree.

An outfielders throwing ability - at least for the ones with really good arms - leads into the sort of thing that isn't covered by stats. (I don't think, there might be something very recent)
The players with really good arms, -Ichiro, Dwight Evans, probably Clemente, although I haven't watched much video of him. At least those two after a fairly short time didn't get as many outfield assists, but did have a fair number of times when a player might have tried for a double or triple but decided against trying. You can see it happen watching the game, but there's not many easy ways to put a number to something that didn't happen. Especially if why it didn't happen is open to interpretation. Would the player have run against a different outfielder say Johnny Damon? Or was the extra base not taken because it wasn't likely against anyone?

Other players have more outfield assists and they're either ones with above average arms or quick releases. Manny Ramirez had a lot of OF assists, and while I never heard it discussed, watching a lot of games I began to think it was because he had this lazy looking approach to a routine single that encouraged people to try for second more often. Same thing for wall singles, meanders to the ball, looks like he's not paying much attention, then a quick catch and throw to second.

Again, hard to put numbers to, aside from the assists.

Errors today totally baffle me. Shortstop drops a fairly easily reached ball, and sometimes, maybe even usually it's scored a hit. Maybe the guys have better range so it would have been a nearly unreachable ball 30 years ago, but a drop on a ball in your own range should be an error.

Steve B

modern metrics don't use OF assists alone as a measure of arm, they take into account extra bases taken by base runners (or lack thereof) . But, in the grand scheme of things, just like first base scoops, OF arms just don't make that great of an impact over the course of a season or a career. The difference between an avg arm and a great one isn't large enough to make a huge difference.


ETA: on one play, sure the difference can be huge, but if a great arm prevents say 20 extra bases during a season, that only adds up to maybe 3 or 4 runs and that's not even half a WAR.