Sports memorabilia market

Snapolit1 · #1 10-12-2016, 10:47 AM

I've lived through a lot of bubbles now. There always a lot of good reasons why the prices are ridiculous and how a crash is imminent. I was living in a 500 foot square apartment with my future wife in 1992 in the West Village in NYC and someone slipped a piece of paper under the door one morning saying we could buy the unit for $225,000 Boy did we laugh about that. What kind of maniac would pay that kind of money for a 500 square foot apartment with the shower in the kitchen. Yep. Probably worth 2 million today. Remember too when Google was trading for $75 and people were telling me to stay the hell away. It was doomed. Bottom line is you can come up with 1000 reasons why the sky is about to fall. Go to the Christies website and look at the auctions of old stuff people are still willing to spend a fortune for. Eggs. Paintings. Vases. Jewlelry boxes. None of them kids today care on whit about. Not saying every piece of memorabilia will hold its price but many will continue to rise.

Shoeless Moe · #2 10-12-2016, 11:02 AM

Eggs

Republicaninmass · #3 10-12-2016, 11:07 AM

Goose eggs

Hankphenom · #4 10-12-2016, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I've lived through a lot of bubbles now. There always a lot of good reasons why the prices are ridiculous and how a crash is imminent. I was living in a 500 foot square apartment with my future wife in 1992 in the West Village in NYC and someone slipped a piece of paper under the door one morning saying we could buy the unit for $225,000 Boy did we laugh about that. What kind of maniac would pay that kind of money for a 500 square foot apartment with the shower in the kitchen. Yep. Probably worth 2 million today. Remember too when Google was trading for $75 and people were telling me to stay the hell away. It was doomed. Bottom line is you can come up with 1000 reasons why the sky is about to fall. Go to the Christies website and look at the auctions of old stuff people are still willing to spend a fortune for. Eggs. Paintings. Vases. Jewlelry boxes. None of them kids today care on whit about. Not saying every piece of memorabilia will hold its price but many will continue to rise.

Completely agree. We've already seen the turnover in generations that everybody wondered about in the 1980s and 1990s. Why would the kids at that time be interested in the same things as my generation (I'm 70) when they are in their 30s and 40s and starting to have disposal income to spend on collectibles? The prevailing theory was that they wouldn't care at all about players of the 1950s and 60s that the boomers had grown up idolizing, and maybe not even the old timers from the 1920s and 30s. Well, here we are, and all that stuff seems to be holding up pretty well, to say the least.

Snapolit1 · #5 10-12-2016, 01:29 PM

The other trueism I've experienced in my life is that every amazingly lucrative transaction I have ever closed (whether real estate or collectibles) I walked out the door convinced that I was a complete idiot, that I overpaid dramatically, and that I would rue the day I bought it. A couple of real estate transaction I even asked the broker about trying to undo and thankfully he/she talked me out if it. And I have never gotten something at a bargain price where it appreciated dramatically in value. Not once.

Stampsfan · #6 10-12-2016, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

And I have never gotten something at a bargain price where it appreciated dramatically in value. Not once.

How true. Sounds like how I buy a penny stock. Now (like my collectibles), nothing but blue chip.

As for the younger folks collecting people they don't know, I am north of 50, and barely remember Mantle. While my kids may believe otherwise, I never saw Dimaggio, Williams, Musial, Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb play live, or even on the radio. Yet I still love a collectible or card with any of the aforementioned on it.

Further confession... I buy nothing new, but about a year ago I did jump in on a Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8. Thoughts being that with a max of 700 printed, a cult following stronger than Star Trek, and a generation that one day will have cash and look back at this series fondly, I took a shot at it.

Everyone will want a piece of their past at some point, so this was my venture into that market.

Snapolit1 · #7 10-12-2016, 03:02 PM

I love the Walking Dead card idea. Now that's a great roll of the dice. I buy noting new either, but bought a Mike Trout 1/100 card from 2011 that looked really cool. If I could fine another dozen or so I'd by them as well but the market appears to have dried up.

bgar3 · #8 10-12-2016, 04:18 PM

I think there is a vast difference between historically important items, which will hold value or increase, and other collectible items, especially those based upon condition alone. Obviously the best is to have an histoically important, rare item in great condition. However, I would much rather have an historically important item in poor condition, than nearly all mint modern cards. When cards that are fairly common, but in a high grade, start selling for more than rarer historically important items, I think this is a bad sign. Having said that, I have tried to never substitute my judgment for that of another collector. I also acknowledge that what is historically important is very subjective. For me, my historical collection is 19th century baseball, while I enjoy my Ashburn collection, knowing it is unlikely to appreciate to any great extent.

glchen · #9 10-12-2016, 04:27 PM

I think prewar items for the big stars will always hold up because it's a supply issue. For example, if there are only 40 known copies of an E103 Honus Wagner card, you're telling me you won't be able to find 100 collectors who really want that card and would bid at least the current going prices in a population of 400 million people (in 30 years)? Now all of the card that are sky high and where there are thousands upon thousands of those same cards in existence, that's a different story. No idea what will happen with those. I totally agree that eye appeal plays in a big factor in how much folks are willing to pay for items. However, if the difference between the cards is miniscule and it's just a 10 vs a 9 on a flip, don't know if folks will always be paying multipliers for that.

Snapolit1 · #10 10-12-2016, 07:07 PM

One obvious example is Jackie Robinson. In 100 years, if we haven't completely destroyed the planet, people will still consider Jackie Robinson a major sports and cultural icon. Yogi Berra? Mike Schmidt? Tom Seaver? Not so much.

Frank A · #11 10-18-2016, 11:56 AM

I really don't see the Memorabillia market dropping at all. Cards have alyays taken top billing in the collectors interest as memorabillia has been overlooked. Collectors are now seeing how much better it is to own a piece of the game. I believe it will continue to rise. Frank

Snapolit1 · #12 10-18-2016, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank A

I really don't see the Memorabillia market dropping at all. Cards have alyays taken top billing in the collectors interest as memorabillia has been overlooked. Collectors are now seeing how much better it is to own a piece of the game. I believe it will continue to rise. Frank

I generally agree, but the autograph market is so fraught with fraudsters I see that stalling.

Republicaninmass · #13 10-18-2016, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I generally agree, but the autograph market is so fraught with fraudsters I see that stalling.

The more forgers that are uncovered, the more the TPG's know what to look for. Would you say there are more forgeries being passed off now than before PSA/JSA/SGC say pre 1998?

bravos4evr · #14 10-18-2016, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

The more forgers that are uncovered, the more the TPG's know what to look for. Would you say there are more forgeries being passed off now than before PSA/JSA/SGC say pre 1998?

That is hard to say because pre 1998 we didn't have so much internet sales exposing us all to so much high end stuff. We had to use either clubs, or want ads or shows/shops to find stuff. I had never even seen a Babe Ruth ball in person until 2001, (and only photos before that of collections) Now, if I had the cash, I could buy 50 of em a month on ebay.

Wolverine · #15 10-19-2016, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank A

I really don't see the Memorabillia market dropping at all. Cards have alyays taken top billing in the collectors interest as memorabillia has been overlooked. Collectors are now seeing how much better it is to own a piece of the game. I believe it will continue to rise. Frank

Frank, this is a good point and I agree to an extent that the market likely won't see a drop anytime soon. However, the real question is how long these prices will sustain. I just can't imagine today's generation being interested in any of this stuff the way we are. My personal opinion is that as long as the baby boomers are still collecting the market will hold up, but after that I just don't see kids growing up today dropping $400k for a Mickey Mantle jersey in the future. I think these items will always be in the six figure range, but more in the very low six figures rather than close to a million like we're seeing today.

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