1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 3 Available in Complete 1952 Topps Set Break at National

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I don't see the attraction to these set breaks; though I did take a chance on the Kreindler painting lotto thing because I really admire his work and would have had a hell of a Joe Louis piece if I'd won. Regardless of the legal technicalities, it is definitely gambling and I don't really like it as part of the hobby.

Is a 1/407 chance at the Mantle worth a $350 fee? Not to me and not to most anyone else, apparently. The way I look at it (which is probably 100% wrong from a statistical analysis but WTF do I know) is that 1/407 = .2457% chance of winning the Mantle. .2457% = 0.002457 x $23,000 = $56.11. That's what I'd pay for the chance. Since there are some other good cards too, I might kick it up to $100 or so in case I get one of the great high # HOFers instead. But $350 doesn't feel realistic.

Thats why it didn't sell. I would easily spend 350 on a break like this, or more, if the potential payout was there. To justify collecting 140k, there should have been 110-120k worth of cards in the break.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Thats why it didn't sell. I would easily spend 350 on a break like this, or more, if the potential payout was there. To justify collecting 140k, there should have been 110-120k worth of cards in the break.

Maybe even more than 120k on 140k 'value' actually to be worth it when you asking fo $350. if he was asking 50-100 bucks a slot, you would need more people but a bigger margin would be fine as it would take more work to get more people and more people would be ok with worse odds on their money but only paying 50 bucks etc