Saturation Point

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Artwork doesnt have any real value either and i dont think any cars are really needed for for basic needs hen you are paying 700k....theres always a market for things that arent basic needs......i always hear that basic need argument then i watch pawn stars or any number of auction sites selling tons of non basic need stuff that arent baseball cards and there seems to be always a market for it. Maybe not all time market high but always a market

I'm sure somewhere on the Internet people are warning that the market for 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs is about to come crashing down, and how lots of people are going to get hurt.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I'm sure somewhere on the Internet people are warning that the market for 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs is about to come crashing down, and how lots of people are going to get hurt.

haha, well it was really really bad back in 2008 economy wise and cards were still selling, albeit for less but for more than what cardboard is worth.

for all the doomsday people, i think we need to at least be close to how things were in 2008 than now before we start the sky is falling threads. Heck the stock market is at an all time high in some respects and a mantle just went for over a million. It cant be bad for the hobby when that happens.

[Snapolit1]

There are not markets based on reason or need, but emotion and nostalgia. A million dollar Mantle card is not "worth" a penny intrinsically. It's worth a million dollars because that's what a person is willing to pay that for it.

And my experience has been that once a group of people is willing to pay a million dollars for something it doesn't lose its value too easily.

[iowadoc77]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

There are not markets based on reason or need, but emotion and nostalgia. A million dollar Mantle card is not "worth" a penny intrinsically. It's worth a million dollars because that's what a person is willing to pay that for it.

And my experience has been that once a group of people is willing to pay a million dollars for something it doesn't lose its value too easily.

And we collectors will keep the other end of th market going. Good enough for me

[veloce]

Post-war baseball cards are unlike art or real estate due to the trust in third-party graders for their value. If people lose faith in the grader's ability to accurately differentiate an 8 from a 9 then the values could drop significantly. This loss of faith could come about if people found out that cards could be resubmitted and get different grades, that certain dealers got preferential treatment, or that graders make mistakes (imagine the outcry if the most valuable card in the hobby turned out to trimmed after passing third party grading ). I would suspect that if a reporter ever decided to run an experiment where they cracked 10 cards that were graded mint and had some independent hobby experts review each one and then resubmitted all 10 cards to the original grading company, the grades would be alarmingly inconsistent.

R1CK ST3PH3N

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by veloce

Post-war baseball cards are unlike art or real estate due to the trust in third-party graders for their value. If people lose faith in the grader's ability to accurately differentiate an 8 from a 9 then the values could drop significantly. This loss of faith could come about if people found out that cards could be resubmitted and get different grades, that certain dealers got preferential treatment, or that graders make mistakes (imagine the outcry if the most valuable card in the hobby turned out to trimmed after passing third party grading ). I would suspect that if a reporter ever decided to run an experiment where they cracked 10 cards that were graded mint and had some independent hobby experts review each one and then resubmitted all 10 cards to the original grading company, the grades would be alarmingly inconsistent.

R1CK ST3PH3N

That has been true forever. There is a ton of arbitrariness and inconsistency in grading and everybody knows it already, there is no need for any revelations. But the market keeps rolling along. People will still shell out huge premiums for a 9 over an 8, or a 10 over a 9, knowing damn well the card might not regrade at the same level -- or at all. The flip is now the commodity, not the card.

[iowadoc77]

Good points. Separates collectors from investors. I, as a collector, am willing to settle for a lower grade that has decent eye appeal and have little worries about market fluctuation vs some others who are focused on the flip number and pay a huge huge premium for a 9 over and 8 and many of us couldn't tell the difference between those cards without seeing the flips.

[veloce]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That has been true forever. There is a ton of arbitrariness and inconsistency in grading and everybody knows it already, there is no need for any revelations. But the market keeps rolling along. People will still shell out huge premiums for a 9 over an 8, or a 10 over a 9, knowing damn well the card might not regrade at the same level -- or at all. The flip is now the commodity, not the card.

People put up with shenanigans for a while and then it stops being fun and the market crashes. In 1990 everyone knew that card companies were intentionally printing error cards, but they kept paying for them because it was fun... for a couple years anyway. Right now people believe the grading system is a bit sloppy and arbitrary, but that it is fundamentally honest. Unfortunately graded cards are very vulnerable to a big scandal. Either good fake slabs will make it into the market or else there will be a scheme of organized bribery/kick backs for grade bumps. Given that there are millions of dollars at stake, I think it isn't a matter of if, but rather when this will happen. I don't think there is a business model that can both grade cards for a rate that collectors are willing to pay, and also guarantee security and competence. $100,000 cards are slabbed in the same plastic as $5 cards... and they are assigned grades by people who probably aren't making a high hourly wage. There is a lot of potential for someone to exploit the current grading system for big money and given that this hobby has had more than its share of people willing to rip off collectors I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. When it does, the market will crash.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I'm sure somewhere on the Internet people are warning that the market for 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs is about to come crashing down, and how lots of people are going to get hurt.

This is brilliant.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I'm sure somewhere on the Internet people are warning that the market for 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs is about to come crashing down, and how lots of people are going to get hurt.

Originally Posted by conor912

This is brilliant.

++++1

I just bought a dozen free range 9th Century Mongolian mini ceramic eggs at Safeway this week.

Wait, I'm now wondering if they were knockoff / reprint eggs.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Rick, who knows. I can only say that for the 25 years I have done this as an adult, one thing after another comes out, and nothing seems to derail the train. Altered cards (rampant), fake holders, shill bidding, WIWAG, preferential grading, conflicts of interest (don't even get me started), hobby icons in jail, inconsistent grading, stuff seems to trump all. So my thinking is that stuff is going to continue to trump all, especially as lots of new money seems to be flowing in.

[mark evans]

I still question whether the aggregate interest and purchasing power of we 'aging' (to be charitable) baby boomers (I'm 67) with regard to vintage cards will be completely replaced by the next generation. Maybe so: we collect old-timers we never saw play so why shouldn't today's youngsters collect Mickey Mantle? On the other hand, there are many other diversions today that the millenials grew up with that lay claim to their disposable dollar.

Also, I've wondered for some time whether we might be headed for a (modest?) economic downturn generally that could impact uses of disposable income and thus the value of collectibles. Since I was a poor economics student in college and never fully understood it, however, feel free to ignore this point.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by mark evans

I still question whether the aggregate interest and purchasing power of we 'aging' (to be charitable) baby boomers (I'm 67) with regard to vintage cards will be completely replaced by the next generation. Maybe so: we collect old-timers we never saw play so why shouldn't today's youngsters collect Mickey Mantle? On the other hand, there are many other diversions today that the millenials grew up with that lay claim to their disposable dollar.

Also, I've wondered for some time whether we might be headed for a (modest?) economic downturn generally that could impact uses of disposable income and thus the value of collectibles. Since I was a poor economics student in college and never fully understood it, however, feel free to ignore this point.

There likely is a enough people born in the 80s though likely collected baseball cards and they are in their 30s-40s. Lots of things may have lesser value in 50 years but thats not for here nor there at this time. Also when there is down in a any market, nobody usually sees it coming. Its silly when people say in 30 years, or in 20 years etc. Its not like 1 year before that 20 or 30 years is over everyone than goes, SELL NOW. Can revisit the aging issue in 30 years. Go and wait 30 years to buy card you want or a mongolian egg if you are concerned.

People buy things in life for today, they dont worry about 50 years from now, heck people buy things today they cant even afford. There are also a lot of mid lifers that spend a lot of money on very young girls to date in the hope of pursing a relationship. That relationship likely wont work, but they spend the money anyway. It not like everyone at the same time is just going to spend money with the future value of 30 years from now in mind when most dont even care about tomorrow. Thats human nature

[Yoda]

I am torn between putting my new investment funds into a 1955 RC Clemente or Dutch tulips. Right now I am leaning towards the flower.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I am torn between putting my new investment funds into a 1955 RC Clemente or Dutch tulips. Right now I am leaning towards the flower.

It is almost the end of the season for good Dutch bulbs so buy quickly.