Interesting Ebay Bidding

[dariushou]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

In the past I put down a ton of early bids on PWCC cards. Just so they show up on my eBay bidding list. I bid early and forget about them for a few weeks. I get outbid quickly and then just have a marker down and move on. Do the same thing for most of the major AHs. I would ascribe zero to early bidding.

I pointed out guys who bid early AND had high bid retractions. Do you have a lot of bid retractions? You also state you get outbid early which means you were probably trying to get a good deal -- how often do you get a good deal on PWCC auction.

You mention prewar. Here's my take on that. Prices that go up for other cards -- lets say 1955 clemente or 1956 clemente or whatever -- will impact other cards. If you were to bid on a Ty Cobb, you may think to yourself that other cards, even newer cards like 1955 Clemente shot up so why not the Cobb. My point is that a bubble (no matter the creation) brings everything up... well except for the obvious losers --junk wax I have not looked at a ton of cards prewar, but I would highly doubt they were not impacted, especially the ones that are traded frequently.

I like Keith's chart from VCP. I'm going to expand on it a little bit to highlight what has happened over the past several years. Price appreciation in a small market (baseball cards) is easily manipulated. I'll accompany that with an internet bubble chart (NASDAQ). Take note that in a heavily traded market, like the NASDAQ, the index shot up to about 2.5-3x the normal path (NOT 50-100x like what we have seen in the much smaller baseball card market which is easily manipulated). Then, my favorite,the typical bubble path chart.


Here is the expanded Clemente Chart:




Here is the NASDAQ Internet Bubble Chart:



Here is my favorite Bubble Chart:

[Exhibitman]

I agree with Darius that there was a bubble, whatever the causes. The charts are true. And it does ripple. People who cannot afford an 8 drop down to compete for a 6 and so on. People who are concerned they will be shut out grab what they can afford. Some prices were too low historically speaking, that is true. The Aaron rookie in a 7 sat for years under $2k.

I sold into some bubbles and did ok. The T206 error craze for example. The silly novelty cards I liked fishing out of commons piles brought huge money for a while. I bought into a few bubbles too and got my ass kicked.