Mlb hof tracker

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by dgo71

I will never understand why Schilling gets so much HOF talk. In 20 years he had 6 seasons I'd consider spectacular. That's including 3 years in Philly when he had great seasons with a bad team. Outside of those and his 3 20-game win seasons (none of which garnered him a Cy Young Award, he finished 2nd each time) his career was positively average at best. Being dominant in 15% of your career and only good the rest of the time doesn't scream HOFer to me. I guess the argument could be made that less deserving players are already in but I don't believe past mistakes should condone making repeated mistakes.

well, your above statement is incorrect , like by a ton. In his career, Shill had 12 seasons that could be called really really good and 6 that could be called spectacular. When you combine the length of his career, with his production, his K/BB ratio and stuff like WAR, FIP and postseason success you end up with a guy who is right there with Mussina and Smoltz in production.

[packs]

But he is not as good as Mussina and Smoltz. Only Smoltz is in. So why are people talking about Schilling and not Mussina?

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by packs

But he is not as good as Mussina and Smoltz. Only Smoltz is in. So why are people talking about Schilling and not Mussina?

Probably because most people think Moose will get in over the next few years. Schilling is punished more for his unfortunate Twitter habits than his play. A cursory look at his metrics shows one of the 25 best starters of all time. The talk is more about the low % of votes he's getting right now more than anything.

If we're going to rely on WAR as a major consideration, then let's talk about Rick Reuschel going into the Hall.
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he has a legit argument 3.22 career FIP 68.2 fWAR (31st all time among pitchers) 9 seasons of 4 or more fWAR not a huge peak, but a long ,solid career.

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

he has a legit argument 3.22 career FIP 68.2 fWAR (31st all time among pitchers) 9 seasons of 4 or more fWAR not a huge peak, but a long ,solid career.

[KCRfan1]

Rick Reuschel is not who comes to mind when I think of the Hall. I will agree to disagree, in that he doesn't have much of an argument for HoF induction.

I give Reuschel as an example so not to rely on WAR, or give too much weight to WAR in establishing a player worth and value.

[nat]

If you think that WAR is inaccurate, what you need to do is demonstrate that it's inaccurate. What part of the model is wrong, and why? And then maybe help us fix it.

In a nutshell, it takes discrete events (singles, strikeouts, etc), looks at how each of these events effected a team's run scoring/preventing over some specified stretch of time (whatever stretch of time you're interested in), and then converts a player's discrete events into expected runs. Which are then converted to expected wins (given how many runs you needed to produce/prevent in the period under discussion), and subtracts the number of wins a AAA player would have contributed. What's wrong with that?

Or if there's not a philosophical problem with it, perhaps there's a problem with how it's implemented? We've got some really smart people working on it, but checking their work never hurts. You can look up the equations and go through them yourself.*

*For the record, I think that there is a problem of this sort. I think that WAR systematically over-rates relief pitchers, because it includes "leverage" into its calculation for pitchers. Basically, it says that preventing a run in the ninth inning is more important than preventing one in the first. Maybe there are other such problems, if so, let's find them.

[KCRfan1]

Nat,

WAR isn't the be all to end all for me. Just personal choice. It certainly plays a factor, but it's only part of the whole player picture for me.

If others want to rely on WAR, so be it. It's just not my only criteria.

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

well, your above statement is incorrect , like by a ton. In his career, Shill had 12 seasons that could be called really really good and 6 that could be called spectacular. When you combine the length of his career, with his production, his K/BB ratio and stuff like WAR, FIP and postseason success you end up with a guy who is right there with Mussina and Smoltz in production.

That's your opinion. Guess that bloody sock game meant more to you than it did for me. Mussina and Smoltz are ahead of Schilling in terms of both stats and hardware. Schilling is Kevin Brown at best.

[nat]

From 1992 through the end of his career, Shilling was below all-star level only in 1994 and 2005. He was roughly average in 1994, and terrible in 2005. He's almost exactly as well-qualified for the hall as Mussina is, unless you want to give him extra credit for post-season performance. Mussina has a 2 WAR lead, which, over the course of a career, is negligible. Brown was an occasionally-great pitcher (he probably should have won the 1996 NL Cy Young award), but he's a step behind the other two.

I'm reasonably confident that Shilling and Mussina will both get elected eventually. The problem that Mussina is going to have is that the voters are not good at adjusting for context. He has a career 3.68 ERA, which doesn't look HOF-worthy, but adjusted for context it is better than Fergie Jenkins, Steve Carlton, and about the same as (actually very slightly better than) Don Drysdale. Adjusted for context, Shilling's ERA is better than all of those guys; he is 46th all-time, tied with, among others, Tom Seaver.

[KCRfan1]

Let's not put too much into the WAR factor. It plays a part in consideration, but a small one.

If we're going to rely on WAR as a major consideration, then let's talk about Rick Reuschel going into the Hall.