Mlb hof tracker

dgo71 · #1 12-24-2016, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

he has a legit argument 3.22 career FIP 68.2 fWAR (31st all time among pitchers) 9 seasons of 4 or more fWAR not a huge peak, but a long ,solid career.

KCRfan1 · #2 12-24-2016, 11:50 AM

Rick Reuschel is not who comes to mind when I think of the Hall. I will agree to disagree, in that he doesn't have much of an argument for HoF induction.

I give Reuschel as an example so not to rely on WAR, or give too much weight to WAR in establishing a player worth and value.

nat · #3 12-24-2016, 01:54 PM

If you think that WAR is inaccurate, what you need to do is demonstrate that it's inaccurate. What part of the model is wrong, and why? And then maybe help us fix it.

In a nutshell, it takes discrete events (singles, strikeouts, etc), looks at how each of these events effected a team's run scoring/preventing over some specified stretch of time (whatever stretch of time you're interested in), and then converts a player's discrete events into expected runs. Which are then converted to expected wins (given how many runs you needed to produce/prevent in the period under discussion), and subtracts the number of wins a AAA player would have contributed. What's wrong with that?

Or if there's not a philosophical problem with it, perhaps there's a problem with how it's implemented? We've got some really smart people working on it, but checking their work never hurts. You can look up the equations and go through them yourself.*

*For the record, I think that there is a problem of this sort. I think that WAR systematically over-rates relief pitchers, because it includes "leverage" into its calculation for pitchers. Basically, it says that preventing a run in the ninth inning is more important than preventing one in the first. Maybe there are other such problems, if so, let's find them.

KCRfan1 · #4 12-24-2016, 06:50 PM

Nat,

WAR isn't the be all to end all for me. Just personal choice. It certainly plays a factor, but it's only part of the whole player picture for me.

If others want to rely on WAR, so be it. It's just not my only criteria.

chaddurbin · #5 12-27-2016, 10:21 PM

raines, mussina, bonds, clemens, pudge r locks for me. schilling, bagwell, martinez, manny, and vlad would round out my ballot (vlad is borderline but i love the dude so he's in for me). if you don't want to vote manny in because he failed 2 official drug tests i'm not gonna argue...but imo in 5 years bonds and clemens will be locks anyway and that'd clear up a path for other ped guys like manny and arod.

these voters who write in 1-2 guys should have their voting privileges taken away with their action today could affect the potential future gridlock.

dgo71 · #6 12-27-2016, 11:17 PM

How can WAR be considered an accurate stat when it's not even calculated the same way by those who provide it? I like WAR as a quick, at a glance look at a player's worth but if that was the only stat I could muster to argue for enshrinement I don't think it's a compelling enough arguement. My biggest problem is that because it's a cumulative statistic, it gives longevity the appearance of dominance, like the Rick Reuschel for the Hall statement a few posts back. Reuschel was never what I'd consider the dominant pitcher in baseball, or even his league, or heck even his own team in many instances. But he was good over a very long time so his WAR ranks very high.

bravos4evr · #7 12-29-2016, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgo71

How can WAR be considered an accurate stat when it's not even calculated the same way by those who provide it? I like WAR as a quick, at a glance look at a player's worth but if that was the only stat I could muster to argue for enshrinement I don't think it's a compelling enough arguement. My biggest problem is that because it's a cumulative statistic, it gives longevity the appearance of dominance, like the Rick Reuschel for the Hall statement a few posts back. Reuschel was never what I'd consider the dominant pitcher in baseball, or even his league, or heck even his own team in many instances. But he was good over a very long time so his WAR ranks very high.

every different variation of WAR does exactly what the creators of them desired. Fangraphs chooses to use FIP and UZR/DRS in their WAR, baseball reference choose era+ and DRS ...etc as long as you know what the underlying stats are used you can choose which one you want to use and why. (tho i think most people should pick one and stick with it so as not to get caught up trying to cherry pick)

is WAR perfect? no, not at all, (mostly because of defense being so hard to determine accurately) but it's pretty good. If you take cumulative fWAR for at team and compare it to their true record and pythagorean record it tends to match up fairly well. But, it really IS the best stat for comparing players across positions. It's a thumbnail, but a good thumbnail.

as far as the HOF and WAR goes, well of course you need to dig deeper than just their WAR number. But if a guy has a career WAR north of 60 generally they are going to be ,at worst, on the cusp. Once you cross over the 80 threshold you are talking guys that should be shoe ins. Even if it was over 20 years, a player who built up 80 WAR over 20 years was so good for so long as to be enshrined i think. If Koufax can be in for a few hyper-dominant years, other players should be in for a long body of consistently great work. Even if they were never a dominant player.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #8 12-30-2016, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgo71

How can WAR be considered an accurate stat when it's not even calculated the same way by those who provide it? I like WAR as a quick, at a glance look at a player's worth but if that was the only stat I could muster to argue for enshrinement I don't think it's a compelling enough arguement. My biggest problem is that because it's a cumulative statistic, it gives longevity the appearance of dominance, like the Rick Reuschel for the Hall statement a few posts back. Reuschel was never what I'd consider the dominant pitcher in baseball, or even his league, or heck even his own team in many instances. But he was good over a very long time so his WAR ranks very high.

While I understand viewing it as a cumulative stat, it can be negative, so it's not like hits or k's or something of that nature.

rats60 · #9 12-28-2016, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

these voters who write in 1-2 guys should have their voting privileges taken away with their action today could affect the potential future gridlock.

This is ridiculous. Maybe they don't want to vote for undeserving players. It is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of above average or Hall of cheaters. I think it is dumb to vote for 10 just because you can. The HOF should be for the best of the best. It is already too watered down.

Snapolit1 · #10 12-28-2016, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

This is ridiculous. Maybe they don't want to vote for undeserving players. It is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of above average or Hall of cheaters. I think it is dumb to vote for 10 just because you can. The HOF should be for the best of the best. It is already too watered down.

Agree. Should be you can vote for up to 10. When I see who the 9th and 10th voters are for some of these guys is absurd.

bravos4evr · #11 12-29-2016, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

This is ridiculous. Maybe they don't want to vote for undeserving players. It is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of above average or Hall of cheaters. I think it is dumb to vote for 10 just because you can. The HOF should be for the best of the best. It is already too watered down.

well the problem is that by limiting it to ten you can end up where we are now, logjammed. If they gave them a simple "yes/no" ballot and took guys off after 5 years then we could clear the jams and probably have simple 1-2 guys getting in each year .

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