Prices coming down...

[bigfish]

The sky is falling on high grade 50's and 60's rookie cards. Manipulation is over.

Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gerig , Cy Young, and rarer items continue to rise.

[Yoda]

The syndicates were very busy indeed last Fall. Hmm.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bigfish

The sky is falling on high grade 50's and 60's rookie cards. Manipulation is over.

Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gerig , Cy Young, and rarer items continue to rise.

Exactly.

[Jobu]

Just for fun, let's see the chart for the green T206 Cobb.

[sreader3]

Thanks for the charts Peter. Very informative. Looks to me like a healthy market with modest appreciation has returned after a Hunt brothers-type spike.

https://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/edu...hunt_bros.html

[MattyC]

Unfortunately some Ruths (e121, Goudeys, a few other more obscure issues), T206 classics (i,e,m Wajo portrait, Cobb portraits), and others were also manipulation targets, with varying degrees of success. The occasional mercenary *@#$ who tries to use sportscards to make some fast money isn't picky about the side of WWII on which he plays his games.

One additional observation is that while the higher pop card offers a "dumper" more opportunities to sell at an inflated price, the problem with the rarer cards is that manipulation can last longer, since fewer come up for sale to eventually "outlast" the manipulation.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Look at the bids at Heritage on the auction closing tonight and then tell me the sky is falling.

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

[iowadoc77]

Originally Posted by irv

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

Very true. Lots of people still seem to have lots of disposable income. Sheesh

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by irv

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

what about what the sellers are willing to give up potentially. However if noone wanted the cards at the prices they wanted in a direct deal they have no other choice really if they want to sell the card. Easy to say on a 100k card with BP why did the seller give up 5-20k but if he couldnt sell the card for 80-85k lets say, in the private market.what else he he supposed to do...

[orly57]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Unfortunately some Ruths (e121, Goudeys, a few other more obscure issues), T206 classics (i,e,m Wajo portrait, Cobb portraits), and others were also manipulation targets, with varying degrees of success. The occasional mercenary *@#$ who tries to use sportscards to make some fast money isn't picky about the side of WWII on which he plays his games.

One additional observation is that while the higher pop card offers a "dumper" more opportunities to sell at an inflated price, the problem with the rarer cards is that manipulation can last longer, since fewer come up for sale to eventually "outlast" the manipulation.

Just because some cards that were previously undervalued (like some of the ones you mention) went up in value, I don't think they were necessarily manipulated. There is a genuine high demand on all Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig cards. I think the high grade 50's and 60's rookies were the real targets here. If you find any Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb's that have gone down in value, let me know so I can buy them. I think it is possible that when we saw the 50's cards getting manipulated, we bought pre-war at a premium for fear that they would explode next. Doesn't mean that they were manipulated.

[MattyC]

Orlando, the manipulators will try and play their game with cards that collectors generally perceive as undervalued; that is what allows the hustle to succeed, because it is very hard for anyone on the "outside" to parse manipulation from overdue appreciation for such cards. No question and I agree that there is some genuine appreciation out there, alongside the other kind. I also agree that there was some appreciation in value on some cards that were bought thinking they could explode next, so get'em now; that is a great point, and it makes those premiums paid "fruit of the poisonous tree," to some extent.

As to your question, yes, I can point one out for you to buy: the e121 Ruth in PSA 3 grade. Per VCP, the card was a 5k to 7k card— then out of nowhere it hits 22.8k. As to the cause for one anomalous sale of any card, could be any one or more of a number of factors, many legitimate, some not— from pent up demand, to the perfect storm of buyers, to a fake sale or manipulation attempt.

There have been three successive sales since in the same grade, and each has declined, from 16.4k, to 14.7k, to 12.7k.

The good news I would imagine is that most of us collect for love of the sport and love of cards, and in terms of daily happiness in life those things far outshine the Sturm und Drang that comes when the focus shifts to money.

[Leon]

But some of the high grade rookies are remaining fairly high, just not to the extremes with the fraudulent manipulation we saw.

Originally Posted by bigfish

The sky is falling on high grade 50's and 60's rookie cards. Manipulation is over.

Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gerig , Cy Young, and rarer items continue to rise.

[jboosted92]

can someone explain the "manipulation" that occurred to me? thx

[Republicaninmass]

It will never just go away. Think of gas when it was 4$ a gallon, then I heard a few muttons heads talking last year "hey gas is unda two bucks", that seemed like a steal!

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by jboosted92

can someone explain the "manipulation" that occurred to me? thx

Long story, subject to 1000s of posts here. If I had to summarize it a long run-on poorly crafted sentence I would say that there were a stunning explosion in the "value" of some post war cards (mostly 50s and 60s rookie cards) in a brief few month period of time where after the fact there appeared to be some pretty good evidence that some (many?) of these record breaking transactions were likely sham transactions that were never actually completed, but merely designed to document "sales" in Vintage card Prices and elsewhere in order to run up the prices of these cards to inflated levels so others could then sell into that frenzy to make some serious money.

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Long story, subject to 1000s of posts here. If I had to summarize it a long run-on poorly crafted sentence I would say that there were a stunning explosion in the "value" of some post war cards (mostly 50s and 60s rookie cards) in a brief few month period of time where after the fact there appeared to be some pretty good evidence that some (many?) of these record breaking transactions were likely sham transactions that were never actually completed, but merely designed to document "sales" in Vintage card Prices and elsewhere in order to run up the prices of these cards to inflated levels so others could then sell into that frenzy to make some serious money.

yikes....super

i actually thought it might be this:


Lets say someone(S) has some PSA9-10 , 50s/60s ( Clemente, Koufax for instance)

They see some PSA 8s come up for auction, and them and someone else, considerably over pay ( Example, what would maybe go for 4000, they pay 10,000)....now that then shoots up the value of their PSA9/10 that the subsequently put on the market....make a profit, then hurry up and turn around and sell their PSA8 they just bought at 10k, for at least what they paid.....

[Danny Smith]

Cool to see the charts. I don't think we will ever know what actually happened but my favorite theory based off of the charts/activity/the way my brain works because of my profession is that someone (and maybe a couple of his/her buddies) with some cash to launder got hip to the sports card game.

Dirty money in. Clean money out with no real concern for loss. No regulation whatsoever. Pretty smart timing given the massive amount of auctions in the spring and national in the summer. Most liquid marketplace of the year.

Like I said who knows but that's what has always stuck in my head.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by jboosted92

yikes....super

i actually thought it might be this:


Lets say someone(S) has some PSA9-10 , 50s/60s ( Clemente, Koufax for instance)

They see some PSA 8s come up for auction, and them and someone else, considerably over pay ( Example, what would maybe go for 4000, they pay 10,000)....now that then shoots up the value of their PSA9/10 that the subsequently put on the market....make a profit, then hurry up and turn around and sell their PSA8 they just bought at 10k, for at least what they paid.....

I've heard from a reliable source that what you described was the impetus for some of the shenanigans.

[Yoda]

No doubt a bunch of side agreements exist between the "players."

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I've heard from a reliable source that what you described was the impetus for some of the shenanigans.

well super...it took me about 20 seconds to think of that scheme....imagine what could be done with time....

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by bigfish

The sky is falling on high grade 50's and 60's rookie cards. Manipulation is over.

Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gerig , Cy Young, and rarer items continue to rise.

You can add Mantle to your list above, as continuing to rise...check out Heritage.