Aaron Judge

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news...a1drgug56ipj9x

[packs]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

Again Kimbrel hasn't played 8 years. He hasn't finished this season, and didn't break RC status in 2010.

Mariano was not a full time closer in 1996, he was a setup man. He had 107 innings that year and only had 8svo. Closer WARs are always lower, it doesn't favor part time pitchers. So you can't use that season to compare to a closer.

I gave you the most comparable stats I could. The first 6 full seasons of closer duty for both pitchers.

[packs]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

Oh please tell me you are kidding me right now. You are talking in circles. You already brought up cumulative stats. Here is my quick summation of responses and you can go back and read the full response with stats to back it up:

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

...inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.[/url]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

I would also like to point out that your Altuve/Cobb comparison doesn't make any sense here. Altuve's .314 BA doesn't compare to Cobb's .370 BA over those 5 seasons. In essence Altuve has less hits in more chances. You can't even compare the two.

A better Cobb comparison would be like you saying Pete Rose is better than Cobb because he accumulated 65 more hits than Cobb over 24 seasons and ignoring the 528 extra games Rose played in. Cumulative stats, in and of themselves, are not good bench marks of a great player. Nor should they be the end all in comparing players.

I gave you legitimate stats to compare Kimbrel to Rivera with the given stats at this point in both of their careers. You are using emotion, straw men arguments, and the argument that "we can't compare current players to past players with high cumulative stats" in an attempt to delegitimize the facts as presented. I still propose inning for inning at this point in their career Kimbrel is very comprable to Rivera, and possibly better.

[packs]

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. That's why there can't be a real discussion. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.

Ok, it is obvious you are just looking for an argument and are unable to look at stats from unbias perspective. You did not take 8 seasons of relief. Kimbrel hasn't had 8 seasons of relief. That seems to be alluding you. He played 21 games in 2010, we haven't even hit the all star game this season. You are taking 8 full season WARs and comparing them to 6 full seasons and two partial seasons. By this logic Austin Jackson's 10 WAR in his first two seasons makes him much better than Aaron Judge since he only has a 4.8 in his "first two seasons".

The parameters I set weren't arbitrary. You tried to compare non closer seasons to a closer with WAR stats. That can't be done. Otherwise one could conclude that Jerry Koosman was better than Mariano Rivera since Koosman's 57.1 WAR over 19 seasons was better than Rivera's 56.6 over 19 seasons.