Aaron Judge

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

They had a better winning percentage in the second half but scored 120 less runs while Judge slumped.

That right there is why he isn't the MVP. He let his team down in the second half. Had he played well in the second half would the Yankees have to settle for a wild card playoff game (I know it isn't set in stone yet, but they are 4 games back still)?

Altuve was consistent for his team all year long.

Altuve 1st half: .347ba/.417obp/.551slg/.968ops
Alutve 2nd half: .349ba/.409obp/.559slg/.968ops

Judge 1st half: .329ba/.448obp/.691slg/1.139ops
Judge 2nd half: .221ba/.379obp/.527slg/.906ops

First half Judge was the MVP for the Yankees, but the second half he was a detriment to the team just coming back for the final month.

[packs]

I feel like its a chicken or the egg situation. Had Judge not played so well in the first half the Yankees might not have had a second half to play for. But even in his slump it was only really a slump for him. I mean the average is unsightly but the OPS and slugging, during his worst moments of the season, nearly match Altuve's peak.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

But even in his slump it was only really a slump for him. I mean the average is unsightly but the OPS and slugging, during his worst moments of the season, nearly match Altuve's peak.

You are manipulating what is said to try and fit it to your desire. What I was showing was the consistency of the player over the full season. That was Judge's full second half, not just his slump. Judge's slump in August do not "nearly match Altuve's peak" in July.

Altuve's peak month, July: .485ba/.523obp/.727slg/1.251ops/203sOPS
Judge's slump month, August: .185ba/.353obp/.326slg/.680ops/83sOPS

August was even Altuve's worst month and even just comparing those Judge doesn't "nearly match" Alutve:
August .304ba/.345obp/.520slg/.865ops/126sOPS

Now this isn't to say I don't think Judge is worthy of other accolades that he will receive for the season. It also doesn't mean that when Judge is on he is better than Altuve, he is. This just shows me that Judge is very streaky and to me wouldn't be the MVP.

[packs]

I was talking about the numbers that you posted. The OPS, slugging, and OBP were near enough to each other that without looking at batting average it would be hard to tell one was struggling.

[chaddurbin]

when you look back at the 2017 season, people will say that's the aaron judge year (sorry mik...giancarlo stanton). he did have a monster first half, the yankees weren't really poised to contend this year, he does lead everyone in WAR...he's the mvp.

conversely the astros were one of the world series favorites, altuve does play with a bunch other bad dudes who do professional baseball things very well...it's just easier when the opposing pitcher have to grind out every ab.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

when you look back at the 2017 season, people will say that's the aaron judge year (sorry mik...giancarlo stanton). he did have a monster first half, the yankees weren't really poised to contend this year, he does lead everyone in WAR...he's the mvp.

conversely the astros were one of the world series favorites, altuve does play with a bunch other bad dudes who do professional baseball things very well...it's just easier when the opposing pitcher have to grind out every ab.

The Astros and Yankees won the same number of games last season. The Astros were a slight favorite over the Rangers to win their division. The Yankees were a popular pick for the wild card. They are both meeting or slightly exceeding their expectations. This isn't some team picked for last place making a miracle run to the playoffs.

Altuve leads Judge in WAR 8.2 to 7.6. The Astros have been the better team after both won the same number of games. The real MVP should be the guy who has hit .415/.455/.915 the last 31 games leading his team to a 29-2 record.

1. Ramirez
2. Altuve
3. Judge

[packs]

I don't know if that's exactly true. For example, SB Nation predicted the Yankees would finish 4th in the East, accurately predicted the Indians would win the Central, and had Houston finishing second in the West.

Only 1 staff member at ESPN out of 35 had the Yankees winning the East, but all 35 picked the Indians to win the Central and 21 out of 35 had the Astros winning the West.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

That right there is why he isn't the MVP. He let his team down in the second half. Had he played well in the second half would the Yankees have to settle for a wild card playoff game (I know it isn't set in stone yet, but they are 4 games back still)?

Altuve was consistent for his team all year long.

Altuve 1st half: .347ba/.417obp/.551slg/.968ops
Alutve 2nd half: .349ba/.409obp/.559slg/.968ops

Judge 1st half: .329ba/.448obp/.691slg/1.139ops
Judge 2nd half: .221ba/.379obp/.527slg/.906ops

First half Judge was the MVP for the Yankees, but the second half he was a detriment to the team just coming back for the final month.

To whoever has been arguing Judge just had a typical season with ups and downs: not.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To whoever has been arguing Judge just had a typical season with ups and downs: not.

Nah...it becomes sample size. as long as you hit well enough for the 2nd half.. a month might as well be 3 days of slumping. Talk of any slump in 2017 for Judge is silly. Its like saying he went 0-4 yesterday so thats a slump... One good day of hitting negates many many bad days. If you fail 7 out of 10 times you are going to the HOF if career is long enough.

Also the fact that your best month of the 2nd half is the last month during the playoff race makes that month more important than any other 2nd half months. Yeah all the games count, but if you use that argument than all of his stats count too

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Nah...it becomes sample size. as long as you hit well enough for the 2nd half.. a month might as well be 3 days of slumping. Talk of any slump in 2017 for Judge is silly. Its like saying he went 0-4 yesterday so thats a slump... One good day of hitting negates many many bad days. If you fail 7 out of 10 times you are going to the HOF if career is long enough.

Also the fact that your best month of the 2nd half is the last month during the playoff race makes that month more important than any other 2nd half months. Yeah all the games count, but if you use that argument than all of his stats count too

It is not sample size when the two months after the end of the first half you hit .182/.346/.365. Judge has had a hot 2 weeks after a bad 2 months. Those 2 weeks are not important considering the Yankees already had the wild card wrapped up. It would be one thing if he led them to the division. However, his hot streak has come too late for it to matter.

[MattyC]

This is a general statement and not directed at anyone in particular.

I get that the flood of data on baseball these days can provide some valuable insight, and it's always been a game that has loved its hallowed stats and records— yet it seems like some fans these days don't even need to watch the game and absorb all there is to absorb about it and the individual human players; they just need their stat sheets and calculators. It's a very dry and one-dimensional way to view the game, and risks missing a lot of pleasurable aspects.

[packs]

I agree 100%. Once I said Bernie Williams was one of the most clutch hitters I've ever seen and someone laughed at me and put up some inane stat to show I was wrong, even though I watched the guy play every day. I was at those games and I knew when Bernie comes up, he's going to put us ahead. But some guy who probably only watched Bernie casually when his team played theirs told me I didn't know what I was talking about.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is a general statement and not directed at anyone in particular.

I get that the flood of data on baseball these days can provide some valuable insight, and it's always been a game that has loved its hallowed stats and records— yet it seems like some fans these days don't even need to watch the game and absorb all there is to absorb about it and the individual human players; they just need their stat sheets and calculators. It's a very dry and one-dimensional way to view the game, and risks missing a lot of pleasurable aspects.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy, sure the stats are what people logically use in the context of an argument, but that doesn't mean the same folks aren't watching and enjoying the game as a true fan would.

[MattyC]

I never said that those who view and speak of such stats only truck in those stats and ignore the other aspects of the game and players. Just saying that what I hear in some discussions does lead me to think that there are lots of guys who do lean on that data— either exclusively or at the cost of other aspects. It is just an impression I get, from what is said in some baseball discussions these days.

I can admit I am certainly someone who runs more on feel, instinct, and emotion, based on what I do for a living— and that is also how I approach the game and collecting. Just a shared observation among us fans/collectors. I always learn and glean good stuff from absorbing the very stat-centric baseball points of view I read around the web. I do think it can also be a good thing to temper that baseball worldview with some emotion/intangibles.

[ullmandds]

Do any of y'all think $5K for a topps signed 1 of 1 celebrating aj's recordbreaking moment is a "good" investment?????

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by rats60

It is not sample size when the two months after the end of the first half you hit .182/.346/.365. Judge has had a hot 2 weeks after a bad 2 months. Those 2 weeks are not important considering the Yankees already had the wild card wrapped up. It would be one thing if he led them to the division. However, his hot streak has come too late for it to matter.

The wild card was far from wrapped up. Plus getting home field means something as well. Andrew McCutchen was horrid to start the year for months i believe...that doesnt matter now for him this season even though they long shot for playoffs... .182 is still better than .090.... you cant hit .270 all year and be a 50 homer hitter in most cases... sometimes you face a bunch of aces in a row or hot teams combined with a few bad weeks....

you also forget that weeks in baseball do make up for months...if Judge hit 20 homers in those 2 weeks....you think we would be having this conversation if he had 60 plus homeruns? nobody would care about the 'slump; hitting 50 plus homers with 5 or so games to go accomplishes the same thing, he didnt play a full season and he will have 110-115 rbis as well.. if he did not' slow down temporarily he probably has arguably the best hitting season of all time...

[frankbmd]

I believe Judge would be the first MVP, or ROY for that matter, with 200+ strikeouts, and possibly could finish the year with more Ks than Nellie Fox had in his entire 19 year major league career (216).

Granted Nellie didn't hit the long ball, but Joe DiMaggio almost had one home run (361) for every time he struck out (369). Judge currently has over 4 strikeouts (245) for each home run (54).

Three more dissimilar good ballplayers would be hard to name.

[MrSeven]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I believe Judge would be the first MVP, or ROY for that matter, with 200+ strikeouts, and possibly could finish the year with more Ks than Nellie Fox had in his entire 19 year major league career (216).

Granted Nellie didn't hit the long ball, but Joe DiMaggio almost had one home run (361) for every time he struck out (369). Judge currently has over 4 strikeouts (245) for each home run (54).

Three more dissimilar good ballplayers would be hard to name.

Strikeouts are far more common today then when Joltin' Joe played.

Bob Feller's 8.1 strikeouts per 9 innings ratio was remarkable in 1946 (only the 4th time it had happened in the NL since formation).

From 2000 to 2015, it has happened 290 times.

https://www.theringer.com/2016/6/17/...g-63da5eb7b35d

For a more modern comparison, Jim Thome comes to mind. 2548 career strike outs to 612 home runs.

[Bill77]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Three more dissimilar good ballplayers would be hard to name.

One that comes to mind is Mike Trout. Not to say that Trout is a bad player because he is not but the similarities to his 2014 season a Judge's 2017 season are crazy. And Trout also has a greater than 4 to 1 SO to HR ratio for his career so far.