What Percentage of Vintage Cards Have Been Graded?

Huysmans · #1 10-04-2017, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Nothing personal Rick, but I safely assume you are are an extreme rarity in that regard. (Except of course for the the 3 people who will now immediately post to say that they do precisely the same thing.)

To each his own is my golden rule. I don't need to touch cardboard. Happy to hold a plastic slab that keeps away the red wine, Italian sauce, and people's dirty hands.

Italian sauce is gooooooooood.

SMPEP · #2 10-04-2017, 09:56 AM

There is no single answer to this question.

Let's take 1923 W572s (which I collect).

PSA Pop report lists 17 graded Ty Cobbs and 18 graded Babe Ruths. SGC has 23 Ty Cobbs and 19 Babe Ruths. I know even Beckett's has at least 1 of each. How many ungraded cards of these stars exist? There are some. But it is less common to see ungraded ones for sale than graded ones. As a WAG, I'd say about 100 or each player (give or take) exists.

But let's compare these players with Mostil, Ray Grimes, John Collins, Elmer Smith and Severied.

Why did I pick these specific guys? They were all originally printed on the same exact ten card strip as Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. So we know they all started out with the same number of cards. (It's logical to assume Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb would have been thrown away less and there are probably a few more of those cards than the common guys - but this is the closest we can get.)

Mostil - 3 PSA, 6 SGC. Grimes - 2 PSA, 3 SGC. Collins -3 PSA, 1 SGC. Smith - 3 PSA, 10 SGC. Severied - 0 PSA, 5 SGC. Ungraded cards for these guys are plentiful.

So for some common players we have 4-5 cards graded. Some common players have as many as 13. And there are at least 41 Ty Cobbs and 38 Babe Ruths.

So what do we know:

1) Stars for this set (and I expect just about all sets) get graded more often.
2) Grading for commons can vary pretty widely. Between 10x and 4 x less often than the star player (based on this set).

It also shuld be noted that this set isn't terribly popular (except for me and Brian!).

Most of the cards sell for very little money compared to T206s, T205s, cracker jacks, OJs, etc.

So there is less incentive to grade cards in this set compared to others. BUT all of those other sets, had much larger populations produced.

If forced to give an answer - I'd bet major stars and rare cards/pre-war sets are mostly graded. Common players - mostly ungraded. Mainstream sets - more graded. Less mainstream sets - less graded. Rare desired sets - mostly graded.

Cheers,
Patrick

OldOriole · #3 10-04-2017, 10:27 AM

Patrick that was a great, well-thought-out post.

I appreciate all the feedback from everyone. It certainly makes sense that more valuable cards (major HOFers, rare printings, high condition cards) would be graded at a higher rate for many sets.

There are a finite number of these vintage cards left to be graded. Is this why we sometimes see TPG companies targeting newer cards with higher distributions or are there still so many ungraded vintage cards that the supply will not dry up for the graders in the foreseeable future?

Reading through the posts again, I do wonder how many barn and attic finds are still left out there. Impossible to know, but can't wait for the next one!

frankbmd · #4 10-04-2017, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldOriole

Patrick that was a great, well-thought-out post.

I appreciate all the feedback from everyone. It certainly makes sense that more valuable cards (major HOFers, rare printings, high condition cards) would be graded at a higher rate for many sets.

There are a finite number of these vintage cards left to be graded. Is this why we sometimes see TPG companies targeting newer cards with higher distributions or are there still so many ungraded vintage cards that the supply will not dry up for the graders in the foreseeable future?

Reading through the posts again, I do wonder how many barn and attic finds are still left out there. Impossible to know, but can't wait for the next one!

�....a finite number of vintage cards left to be graded....� is perhaps true, but the insurance policy the TPGs have is the finite number of collectors who crack graded cards out of their �tombs� as soon as they receive them, and the crossover artists who change the slabs of a given card, and the bumpaholics who think a card is undergraded and crack it out for resubmission.

Certainly the TPGs are not worried in the least about only a finite number of vintage cards left to be graded, for they are more than happy to grade the same card over and over and over again.

In the auction game, �shill� bidders are the poison. In the TPG game, �shill� crackers are a gift that keeps on giving for the slabbers.

BuzzD · #5 10-04-2017, 04:22 PM

I must qualify as old-timey type. I have a handful of PW graded cards purchased but never submitted anything. I guess would rather spend the money on buying some cool obscure NYY card than grade everything. A 20% estimate on graded material feels high but may be good estimate amongst our small market of active collectors

Leon · #6 10-06-2017, 09:09 AM

Overall pre-war graded is about 15.5%

. I still believe the great majority is not slabbed.

,

Touch'EmAll · #7 10-06-2017, 09:37 AM

Little twist - How much percentage of investment type pre-war cards have been graded? Y'know, the T206 HOFers in PSA 5 or better? HOF Cracker Jacks, Goudey HOFers in PSA 5/6 or better, early Dimaggio and Ted Williams' in nice condition, 1920's semi odd ball Ruth's and Gehrigs. etc. ?

greco827 · #8 10-27-2017, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMPEP

There is no single answer to this question.

Let's take 1923 W572s (which I collect).

PSA Pop report lists 17 graded Ty Cobbs and 18 graded Babe Ruths. SGC has 23 Ty Cobbs and 19 Babe Ruths. I know even Beckett's has at least 1 of each. How many ungraded cards of these stars exist? There are some. But it is less common to see ungraded ones for sale than graded ones. As a WAG, I'd say about 100 or each player (give or take) exists.

But let's compare these players with Mostil, Ray Grimes, John Collins, Elmer Smith and Severied.

Why did I pick these specific guys? They were all originally printed on the same exact ten card strip as Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. So we know they all started out with the same number of cards. (It's logical to assume Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb would have been thrown away less and there are probably a few more of those cards than the common guys - but this is the closest we can get.)

Mostil - 3 PSA, 6 SGC. Grimes - 2 PSA, 3 SGC. Collins -3 PSA, 1 SGC. Smith - 3 PSA, 10 SGC. Severied - 0 PSA, 5 SGC. Ungraded cards for these guys are plentiful.

So for some common players we have 4-5 cards graded. Some common players have as many as 13. And there are at least 41 Ty Cobbs and 38 Babe Ruths.

So what do we know:

1) Stars for this set (and I expect just about all sets) get graded more often.
2) Grading for commons can vary pretty widely. Between 10x and 4 x less often than the star player (based on this set).

It also shuld be noted that this set isn't terribly popular (except for me and Brian!).

Most of the cards sell for very little money compared to T206s, T205s, cracker jacks, OJs, etc.

So there is less incentive to grade cards in this set compared to others. BUT all of those other sets, had much larger populations produced.

If forced to give an answer - I'd bet major stars and rare cards/pre-war sets are mostly graded. Common players - mostly ungraded. Mainstream sets - more graded. Less mainstream sets - less graded. Rare desired sets - mostly graded.

Cheers,
Patrick

I would definitely agree with this, particularly among pre-war cards.

ullmandds · #9 10-27-2017, 09:46 AM

pre WWI...83%

brianp-beme · #10 10-27-2017, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

pre WWI...83%

I know personally that Pete is incorrect on his estimate, as I own 19% percent of all known and unknown pre-WW1 cards that exist, and less than 1% of them are graded.

Brian

ValKehl · #11 10-27-2017, 08:51 PM

Methinks Pete's estimate would be more accurate if he had said that 83% of pre-WWII cards are ungraded!

ullmandds · #12 10-27-2017, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Methinks Pete's estimate would be more accurate if he had said that 83% of pre-WWII cards are ungraded!

I tetered...but i DO agree with you.

ullmandds · #13 10-27-2017, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

I know personally that Pete is incorrect on his estimate, as I own 19% percent of all known and unknown pre-WW1 cards that exist, and less than 1% of them are graded.

Brian

dammit!

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