Downward trend in card values?

[Exhibitman]

Here's the thing: the kids today are going to be the inheritors tomorrow of the cards we are saving today. Some of them will be enchanted by the hobby and will get into it, just as some collectors on this board got their starts with their fathers' old cards.

The stuff cycles. I have some cards that still haven't rebounded to their pre-crash price levels, when I bought them. And it isn't just cards. Check the spot price on silver lately? I remember trading some cards for silver bullion at a National a few years ago when silver was about twice its current price. D'oh!

[JollyElm]

It's all about the phones. Every single minute of every single day the youths of today are staring down at their phones. No one seems to even go outside and play anymore. If it's not something that appears on their phones, there is virtually no interest from a huge percentage of kids. When I was growing up (jeez, I sound old), every kid in class had at least some baseball cards. It was an absolutely huge part of the culture, but these days there are a bazillion other distractions for kids, so collecting takes a back seat...waaaaaaay in the back.

[jimjim]

It also seems like everybody is getting cards graded these days to try to cash in on PSA 9/10. As the supply of these cards increases, the price will drop. There are only so many buyers out there.

[Puckettfan]

This is a very interesting thread. When I first got back into cards in 2012 I was surprised at the amount of interest and the huge increase in prices. I figured the uptick was fueled by guys like me in their late 30s who collected in the heyday of the late 80s-early 90s now with established careers and some discretionary income. Sort of reliving their childhood except this time with their own money. This concerned me because I did not know who was coming behind me to prop up the hobby and the prices.

Then I spent a few Saturdays at the local card shop. They were absolutely slammed with kids and their dads buying packs and chasing inserts and autos. They would count off every star they came across. Some of the kids were turning the cards they found right around and consigning them with the dealer on eBay (with the parents permission of course). It was quite a scene. Was there any mention of Mantle, Mays or Griffey? No. But they were just as excited to rip those packs as I was at 10 years old.

I think there are collectors coming behind us but it won't have the same gravity it had. They are not likely to value the card as a piece of history, art, or memorabilia. But they will remember the thrill of unearthing that card. I do believe that things will roll back some and in cases where there is not true scarcity quite a bit. But the big time HOFers and items that are truly rare will still have a market.

In the meantime, I'll hedge my card investments with solid stock and real estate investments just to make sure

[glynparson]

Set building is not in vogue now everyone is buying rookies and superstar cards. This has made it a good time,in my opinion to build sets. Many of the low pop cards are selling for fractions of what they sold for when everyone was set building. It still has some pull on the hotly contested registry sets but on sets where there is less current competition prices are way down. 10s still often bring some head shaking numbers but tougher 8-9 from the 60s and 70s seem to be soft compared to their peak prices.

[Johnny630]

This reminds me of the great Kenny Rogers Song The Gambler; three things to do, hold, fold,walk away/run. I’m waiting for the walking away to occur to be able to buy lower. :-) ressessions are always a good time to buy.

[LeftHandedDane]

For me, collecting is a hobby, not an investment. I don't buy high-grade cards for that reason - give me a raw, mid-grade card and I am quite happy. That said, I would like my collection to retain a reasonable amount of its value, and do think about the future of the hobby from time to time.

I agree that our culture today is at odds with the values that drive most people to collect things. I also believe that the card suppliers have done a great disservice to the hobby by saturating the market with way too much product and focusing on gimmicks to generate short-term interest and sales that have no lasting appeal to a future collector.

I hope that down the road there will come a time when our culture realizes the harm that all this technology is doing and people begin to find more balance in their lives. Should this happen, one of the side benefits will be to collecting. And the post-war era, I believe, will benefit from this rebound if only because there is such a smaller supply of product available.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

This reminds me of the great Kenny Rogers Song The Gambler; three things to do, hold, fold,walk away/run. I’m waiting for the walking away to occur to be able to buy lower. :-) ressessions are always a good time to buy.

That's why demand for truly desirable, rare, significant items is like a step pyramid--one layer falls off, but the value doesn't fall very far due to the tremendous strength of the base demand at a lower level value immediately below it.

Regards,

Larry

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Set building is not in vogue now everyone is buying rookies and superstar cards. This has made it a good time,in my opinion to build sets. Many of the low pop cards are selling for fractions of what they sold for when everyone was set building. It still has some pull on the hotly contested registry sets but on sets where there is less current competition prices are way down. 10s still often bring some head shaking numbers but tougher 8-9 from the 60s and 70s seem to be soft compared to their peak prices.

I agree

[cesarcap]

I'm 50 and my 11 and 13 yr old boys who play baseball (rec, travel andLL) essentially all 4 seasons do not collect baseball cards. They of course have sports games on their devices but have no interest in baseball cards, old or new. Hardly any interest in reading any of the classic baseball books or Baseball Digest either.

But one of my younger son's PSA 9 Pokemon card is worth way more than my 52B Mantle or Mays, 57T Mantle or any of my 86/7 F Jordans.

I actually want to build more sets so wouldn't mind more correcting to come but I still covet those HOF RC's.

[OlderTheBetter]

Will there be future generations of collectors of anything in the numbers we see today? I seriously doubt it. The digital world is much different than the one we grew up in and the passion for ephemera of all kinds is on the wane by the under-40 crowd. There will always be enthusiasts but they will become scarcer. Interest in hard-copy anything is decreasing overall.

We're already seeing an obvious decline it in the antiquarian book market as well as in comic books that are not first appearances, key issues or low-print variants.

Set building in almost all collectibles is slowly dying in interest and that trend should accelerate.

Hall of famers, key rookies and players with high name recognition for pre-1970 cards will retain value due to lower supply and condition issues. Demand will decrease but be offset by low supply.

These are my predictions as a collector for over 50 years of cards, comics and books. I seriously hope most collectors aren't investing big money in their collections. Leave your money to your kids in another form.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by cesarcap

I'm 50 and my 11 and 13 yr old boys who play baseball (rec, travel andLL) essentially all 4 seasons do not collect baseball cards. They of course have sports games on their devices but have no interest in baseball cards, old or new. Hardly any interest in reading any of the classic baseball books or Baseball Digest either.

But one of my younger son's PSA 9 Pokemon card is worth way more than my 52B Mantle or Mays, 57T Mantle or any of my 86/7 F Jordans.

I actually want to build more sets so wouldn't mind more correcting to come but I still covet those HOF RC's.

I'd be like Rick on Pawnstars when he was recently presented a collection of Pokemon cards supposedly worth approximately $400K. If you can't flip 'em quick for a nice profit, best to walk away rather than be stuck with them down the road.

Just my 25 cents worth,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Set building is not in vogue now everyone is buying rookies and superstar cards. This has made it a good time,in my opinion to build sets. Many of the low pop cards are selling for fractions of what they sold for when everyone was set building. It still has some pull on the hotly contested registry sets but on sets where there is less current competition prices are way down. 10s still often bring some head shaking numbers but tougher 8-9 from the 60s and 70s seem to be soft compared to their peak prices.

Sounds like some sage advice to follow. Reminds me of a famous investor who once said that when others were selling their stocks in droves, he was there to buy them, and when the masses were buying, he would sell. The contrarian approach to buying high, and selling low--i.e., avoid the herd mentality. I don't think baseball collectors will abandon baseball history or the history of baseball cards. More common (but still relatively scarce) items may be a bit cyclical, a la coins, but demand for them isn't going to vanish from the face of the earth forever.

Best wishes Glyn,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

It's all about the phones. Every single minute of every single day the youths of today are staring down at their phones. No one seems to even go outside and play anymore. If it's not something that appears on their phones, there is virtually no interest from a huge percentage of kids. When I was growing up (jeez, I sound old), every kid in class had at least some baseball cards. It was an absolutely huge part of the culture, but these days there are a bazillion other distractions for kids, so collecting takes a back seat...waaaaaaay in the back.

I've heard more than one substantially younger person state that he or she "would die without my phone." And the craziest thing is that they aren't exaggerating all that much.

Best wishes,

Larry