Modern Era HOF Ballot: Who do you think should get in?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

First of all, 19 seasons????

He played 2 games in 1968.
He played 5 games in 1969.

You'd deducted those from his 21 years.

He played 82 games in 1970.
He played 76 games in 1986.
He played 73 games in 1987.
He played 78 games in 1988.

Those 6 "seasons" he played a combined 316 games. That's 1.95 seasons. He played in 2,456 games. That's slightly over 15 seasons of actual play time.

He's 10th all-time in JAWS for catcher, and all 9 ahead of him, except for Joe Mauer, are in Cooperstown. Average JAWS for a Hall catcher is 43.9. His is 42.4. His WAR is 50.1. Average WAR for the 15 Hall of Famer catchers is 53.4. Only four catchers in baseball history have a WAR of over 60: Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Pudge Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk.

Look at his 7 year peak. Average 7 year peak for a Hall of Fame catcher is 34.4. Simmons 7 year peak is 34.6.

From 1974 to 1980, his 162 game averages: .298 AVG, 81 runs scored, 174 hits, 35 doubles, 21 home runs, 101 RBI, .374 OBP/.477 SLG/.852 OPS. 134 OPS +. That's fantastic production from the catcher position. Yogi Berra, who is in the Hall, had the exact same 134 OPS + during his best seven year stretch from 1950 to 1956. Simmons had an .852 OPS, while Berra's was at .866.

WAR7 of great catchers (top seven seasons. Need not be seven years in a row)

Gary Carter, HOF 48.3 WAR
Johnny Bench, HOF 47.1 WAR HOF
Mike Piazza, HOF 43.1 WAR
Ivan Rodriguez, HOF 39.7 WAR
Joe Mauer, 38.5 WAR
Carlton Fisk, HOF 37.5 WAR
Yogi Berra, HOF 37.0 WAR
Mickey Cochrane, HOF 36.9 WAR
Buster Posey 36.2 WAR
Ted Simmons 34.6 WAR
Bill Dickey 34.2, HOF WAR
Roy Campanella, HOF 32.9 WAR

What about a guy like Buster Posey, who a lot of people are already discussing as a future Cooperstown enshrinee? (I think it's premature, obviously). Between 2010 and 2017, which is really seven seasons, as Posey only played 45 games in 2011, he had an OPS + of 136. Simmons OPS + at his 7 year peak was 134.
Thurman Munson? His peak 7 year OPS + was 121, from 1970 to 1976. His 7 year peak WAR? 37.0.

Simmons, again, essentially, played 15 seasons. His top 12 seasons, by WAR: 5.5, 5.5, 5.2, 5.2, 4.9, 4.5, 4.0, 3.6, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.3. Those 12 seasons, the lion's share of his career, he averaged more than 4 WAR per season. 5 WAR is All Star level. 5 seasons, by WAR, he was All Star level. Another he was a half point from, and another a point from.

So, looking at his best seven seasons, compared to other great catchers throughout history, he was hardly a "compiler". But his lifetime stats, as a catcher, should warrant another look.

2,472 hits. Among catchers, only Ivan Rodriguez' 2,844 are higher.
483 doubles. Among catchers, only Rodriguez' 572 are higher.
1,389 RBI. Among catchers, only Yogi Berra's 1,430 are higher.

Calling him a strong Hall of Fame candidate is not at all a stretch.

You don't get to cherry pick stats. Simmons played 15 games in the minors in 1970. He was on the roster the rest of the time. Not being good enough to play still counts against him. He played 19 seasons. If he had played more those last 3 seasons, his WAR would be even worse, it works in your favor that he played fewer games.

Ted Simmons WAR is 192nd for position players. That is not a strong HOF candidate. WAR clearly undervalues catchers. Johnny Bench leads catchers with 75, right above Lou Whitaker with 74.9. Bench was a 1st ballot Hofer, Whitaker couldn't get 5% and fell off the ballot (and I will agree that Whitaker deserves serious consideration). Bench and Whitaker did not bring the same value to their team.

We have all the offensive numbers, but how do you value defense, in particular for a catcher? He handles more chances than any other player. He catches every pitch that isn't hit. He calls the pitches. He is the defensive quarterback. When you try to compare catchers with WAR, WAR7 and JAWS, that flaw is magnified. In the case of Simmons, he was a slightly below average catcher, so using numbers that don't punish him for his lack of defense and don't reward other catchers for their superior defense, in particular Munson and Freehan for HOF. Or in your comparison with other Hofers. It gives a false impression that he was better than he really was.

Listing counting stats compared to other catchers just confirms that Simmons was a compiler. He played for 8 seasons as a below average offensive players, as well as being below average defensively. During those 8 seasons, he compiled 5 WAR. If that isn't a compiler, then what is?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by rats60

You don't get to cherry pick stats. Simmons played 15 games in the minors in 1970. He was on the roster the rest of the time. Not being good enough to play still counts against him. He played 19 seasons. If he had played more those last 3 seasons, his WAR would be even worse, it works in your favor that he played fewer games.

Ted Simmons WAR is 192nd for position players. That is not a strong HOF candidate. WAR clearly undervalues catchers. Johnny Bench leads catchers with 75, right above Lou Whitaker with 74.9. Bench was a 1st ballot Hofer, Whitaker couldn't get 5% and fell off the ballot (and I will agree that Whitaker deserves serious consideration). Bench and Whitaker did not bring the same value to their team.

We have all the offensive numbers, but how do you value defense, in particular for a catcher? He handles more chances than any other player. He catches every pitch that isn't hit. He calls the pitches. He is the defensive quarterback. When you try to compare catchers with WAR, WAR7 and JAWS, that flaw is magnified. In the case of Simmons, he was a slightly below average catcher, so using numbers that don't punish him for his lack of defense and don't reward other catchers for their superior defense, in particular Munson and Freehan for HOF. Or in your comparison with other Hofers. It gives a false impression that he was better than he really was.

Listing counting stats compared to other catchers just confirms that Simmons was a compiler. He played for 8 seasons as a below average offensive players, as well as being below average defensively. During those 8 seasons, he compiled 5 WAR. If that isn't a compiler, then what is?

I'm sorry but that's a bit of a stretch.

There were six years where Simmons was "below average"...as in OPS+ below 100. Those seasons were:

1970 OPS+ 74 (age 20)
1981 OPS+ 87 (first year in AL)
1984 OPS+ 61 (terrible year)
1986 OPS+ 88 (36 year old former catcher with 144 plate appearances)
1987 OPS+ 93 (37 year old former catcher with 200 plate appearances)
1988 OPS+ 71 (38 year old former catcher with 123 plate appearances)

Munson likely would have surpassed Simmons in career WAR had he lived. While he was clearly on the downslope of his career, he likely would have had another 10 WAR over the rest of his career, at a minimum. Unless you give credit for years that he never got to play, however, Simmons is the better HOF candidate.

You also want to paint Simmons as a compiler, while bemoaning the fact that Munson never got the opportunity to compile. That seems a bit odd to me.

Gary Carter's final six seasons were pretty bad. Was he a compiler as well? How about Pudge Rodriguez? His final seven seasons were abysmal. Carlton Fisk's last three years were bad. It isn't just a Ted Simmons thing.

Tom C

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I'm sorry but that's a bit of a stretch.

There were six years where Simmons was "below average"...as in OPS+ below 100. Those seasons were:

1970 OPS+ 74 (age 20)
1981 OPS+ 87 (first year in AL)
1984 OPS+ 61 (terrible year)
1986 OPS+ 88 (36 year old former catcher with 144 plate appearances)
1987 OPS+ 93 (37 year old former catcher with 200 plate appearances)
1988 OPS+ 71 (38 year old former catcher with 123 plate appearances)

Munson likely would have surpassed Simmons in career WAR had he lived. While he was clearly on the downslope of his career, he likely would have had another 10 WAR over the rest of his career, at a minimum. Unless you give credit for years that he never got to play, however, Simmons is the better HOF candidate.

You also want to paint Simmons as a compiler, while bemoaning the fact that Munson never got the opportunity to compile. That seems a bit odd to me.

Gary Carter's final six seasons were pretty bad. Was he a compiler as well? How about Pudge Rodriguez? His final seven seasons were abysmal. Carlton Fisk's last three years were bad. It isn't just a Ted Simmons thing.

Tom C

just ignore him, he can't stand to admit that Simmons was twice the player that Garvey was and will pitch a completely irrational toddler fit at the mere mention of such

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

just ignore him, he can't stand to admit that Simmons was twice the player that Garvey was and will pitch a completely irrational toddler fit at the mere mention of such

Nah.

I disagree with him on a few things but he also makes some good and valid points. The back and forth is fun for me and has remained respectful. No problem here.

Tom C

[Moyni]

I did a video on this topic. Thought I would share it with my friends at Net54.

https://youtu.be/sIWk-TuyVlI

[dgo71]

Pretty happy for Trammell. I think Morris however is one of the worst choices in years.

[earlywynnfan]

Still no Stan Hack, eh?