New Poll: Which Active Players are 'Shoe-in' HOFers?

[clydepepper]

Any or all of these or anyone else:

[dgo71]

I think they'll all get in actually, but Kershaw has too much career left ahead of him (hopefully) to say he's a shoo-in just yet, IMO. Beltre may struggle with people who think his career was tainted and/or that he was a compiler.

[packs]

I think Beltre gets in but I think he has to wait just like Piazza and Bagwell did, for the same reasons.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Beltre gets in but I think he has to wait just like Piazza and Bagwell did, for the same reasons.

As an Astros & Bagwell fan, I believe he used. I was surprised that he got in so quickly. I figured he eventually would, but I thought he would have a longer wait.

Here's an interesting article on Bagwell.

http://www.baseballevolution.com/ash...onspiracy.html

[packs]

I kind of wish this poll had different players in it, with the exception of Beltre. His career is interesting to discuss but I don't think many people will be voting against Ichiro. I'm wondering how people feel about Joe Mauer, Chase Utley or Michael Young. It's more fun to talk about the fringe guys.

[conor912]

A shoe-in can only be identified post-prime. The first three are in. Beltre's on the fence. Kershaw needs another 3+ years of prime to enter the discussion.

[nat]

Of course those guys all make it. I'll second packs' suggestion. The Joe Mauer question is much more interesting.

Also:

Joey Votto
C.C. Sabathia
Jose Altuve
Zach Greinke

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by nat

Of course those guys all make it. I'll second packs' suggestion. The Joe Mauer question is much more interesting.

Also:

Joey Votto
C.C. Sabathia
Jose Altuve
Zach Greinke

Sabathia will be an interesting case, especially if he gets to 3,000 strikeouts, which he could do in 2018.

Steve

[RaidonCollects]

I think they all could get in if they retired today. Additionally, Trout, Cano, Votto and Verlander are all 2-3 good years off being HOF locks IMO.

Owen

[packs]

I think Cano has already done enough to get in but I think he'll find it difficult anyway. Same goes for Votto if you ask me. I don't think Verlander is even close though, neither is Sabathia in my opinion. I don't think either pitcher was better than Mussina and Mussina hasn't gotten in.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Cano with his numbers should be a shoo-in already IMO. Kershaw is already a lock despite his age, he has more than enough phenomenal years (more than Koufax did). Verlander needs more career numbers; I would vote no on CC.

[packs]

I was just looking at Baseball-Reference and am very surprised to see such a large disparity between WAR totals for Verlander, Sabathia, and Mussina.

Verlander: 56.6
Sabathia: 61.5
Mussina: 83.0

Verlander has played 5 less seasons and Sabathia 1 to Mussina's 18. Yet Mussina just barely cracked 50% of the vote last year.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Cano has already done enough to get in but I think he'll find it difficult anyway. Same goes for Votto if you ask me. I don't think Verlander is even close though, neither is Sabathia in my opinion. I don't think either pitcher was better than Mussina and Mussina hasn't gotten in.

assume you meant Schilling and Mussina - they are frequently coupled together

...and I think both should have made it before Jack Morris...and several other HOF pitchers.

[packs]

No I would never include Schilling in a HOF discussion. I think Mussina was a much better pitcher than Verlander or Sabathia and he's having trouble getting over 50%. I wouldn't vote for either player until Mussina is in.

[Peter_Spaeth]

IMO Schilling is definitely one tier short, although I think he was better than Morris.

[rats60]

2 people don't think Pujols is a Hofer? All of those guys are a lock right now, even Kershaw. Beltre has 3000 hits, a lock for HOF, and is a top 5 defensive 3b. Kershaw lacks traditional stats such as wins, but his ERA and other "ratio" stats are insane. He also has 3 Cy Youngs and a MVP. That trumps his poor post seasons and years of service.

As others have said, the interesting discussion is the borderline guys like Mauer or Sabathia. What do they need to do to make the HOF?

[Peter_Spaeth]

The perception of Beltre doubtless is hurt by so many years toiling in Seattle and Texas, and not much postseason exposure.

[packs]

I think suspicions will haunt him but they didn't keep Pudge from being first ballot. Beltre's career bugs me because he put up his best year in LA while known cheaters like Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca and Eric Gagne were on the team. He hasn't come close to his 2004 season since and it was during a walk year. He then stinks it up in Seattle, gets hurt during that walk year, and signs a contract with Boston. It's a one year deal and during that walk year he puts up his best season since 2004. Then he signs a huge contract with Texas.

His career has picked up at dubious times and I can't help but pay attention to it. But I also don't think it'll hurt him other than delaying the inevitable IF it does get delayed.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by nat

Of course those guys all make it. I'll second packs' suggestion. The Joe Mauer question is much more interesting.

Also:

Joey Votto
C.C. Sabathia
Jose Altuve
Zach Greinke

of that list, probably only Votto right now. CC had too big of fall and Greinke just hasn't been good enough for long enough yet. Altuve is far too young to tell, but if he maintains he will be a shoe in too.

[packs]

How do people feel about King Felix? I once thought he was a lock but I'm not sure what he'd have to do to convince me again. I think without a second CY he's a long way away and on the wrong side of his career, even if he's only 31.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Seems a bit early on Votto to me. 250 HR, 1500 hits.

[the 'stache]

The perception of Beltre is hurt by the fact that he was a mediocre player for the first twelve seasons of his career (save a 2004 season that was atypical for him, to say the least). 100 is Major League Average for OPS +. The first twelve seasons in the bigs, 1998 to 2009, he had a career 105 OPS +. Never was an All Star, despite playing his first seven seasons in Los Angeles. Received MVP votes in that one season, no other. One Silver Slugger. Two Gold Gloves. Suddenly, when he moves on to Boston, and then Texas, two franchises who are indelibly linked with PEDs, his career takes off.

Here are his seasonal OPS metrics before he goes to the Red Sox (at age 31), and after he arrives.

2004: 163 (MVP runner up)
2005: 93 (7 points below league average. Hmm. Curious)
2006: 105 (5 points above league average)
2007: 112
2008: 109
2009: 83 (a whopping 17 points below league average. He was Ozzie Smith with the stick)
2010: moves to Boston. OPS + is suddenly 141 after having a composite 101 OPS + --league average-- for the last half decade. Hmm. Even more curious)
2011: moves to Texas. The next four years, his OPS + averages 138.

Here are his seasonal averages, from 1998 to 2009--the first twelve seasons of his career. He only played 77 games his rookie year, but this sample is based on an average of 140 games played per season. 573 plate appearances.

.270 AVG, 69 runs scored, 142 hits, 29 doubles, 21 home runs, 76 RBI, a slash line of .325 OBP/.423 SLG/.779 OPS. A 105 OPS+

If you exclude the one monster season where he hits 48 home runs (he never hit more than 26 in any of his other first 11 seasons--can you say Brady Anderson??), the first eleven seasons of his career, he's a .264 career hitter with a .318 OBP/.435 SLG/.753 OPS.

Here are the National League averages in OBP and SLG between 1998 and 2003:

OBP: .335
SLG: .412

And Beltre's composite stats over the same period:

OBP: .320 OBP
SLG: .428 SLG

His OBP for this six year period was 97, 3% below league average.

Then, he had his monster 2004 season.

Yet, after staying patient with Beltre for six years, when he finally breaks out, the Dodgers grant him free agency? Why?

So, he moves on to Seattle. Five years he spends there. And, again, he's awful offensively. Here are the American League averages between 2005 and 2009.

OBP: .336
SLG: .426

Beltre's stats?

OBP: .317
SLG: .442

Between 2005 and 2009, he's got a 101 OPS +. He's 1% above league average as an offensive player.

Excluding 2004, meaning 11 Major League seasons, Beltre's composite OPS + is a 98. He's 2% below Major League Average, offensively, for eleven seasons as a Big League third baseman. Third base is a premium offensive position. Are we supposed to just ignore the fact that he was an atrocious hitter for almost his entire career before he moved on to Boston? What, did he suddenly find the fountain of youth, and the fountain of "don't suck as a hitter" nestled somewhere inside the friendly confines of Fenway Park?

I'm sorry. Adrian Beltre is one of the best examples of a compiler I've ever seen. If you want to vote him in as a defensive stalwart, fine. But his career home runs, his hit total...they don't impress me.

[the 'stache]

Jose Altuve?

He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But he's played a little over six seasons. Way, way too premature to mention him in a discussion about shoe ins.

Originally Posted by nat

Of course those guys all make it. I'll second packs' suggestion. The Joe Mauer question is much more interesting.

Also:

Joey Votto
C.C. Sabathia
Jose Altuve
Zach Greinke

[the 'stache]

As for Kershaw, he could retire tomorrow, and if I had a vote, I'd put him into Cooperstown the day he was eligible without batting an eye. He has been the dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball for the past seven seasons. During that time, the N.L. average for ERA is 4.25. His ERA over that span is 2.10, historic for any era of baseball. His ERA + over that span is 179. That's obscene.

He's won three Cy Young Awards. He's been runner up twice, finished third another time, and fifth in 2016. The only reason he finished that low in '16 is that 40% of his season was wiped out by injury. He would have easily won his fourth Cy Young had he not gotten hurt. His ERA + was 237, and he had a 15.64:1 K:BB ratio, whiffing 172 batters in 149 innings, while walking 11. His WHIP was 0.725. He was 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA.

He's led the league in ERA five times in the last seven seasons, and his 1.69 ERA would have challenged Zack Greinke (1.66) had he finished the year for another ERA title in '16.

The last five seasons, Kershaw's ERA is 1.95. We're looking at one of the greatest pitchers in the modern era.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Jose Altuve?

He's a great player, don't get me wrong. But he's played a little over six seasons. Way, way too premature to mention him in a discussion about shoe ins.

...and then there's Mike Trout!


.

[packs]

Mike Trout is doing things only Bonds has done. He has no peer and I don't see a clear connection between what people see in Mike Trout and what people see in Jose Altuve.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by rats60

2 people don't think Pujols is a Hofer?

I didnt vote for Pujols. The question is whether he is a shoo in not whether he is a HOFer. There are enough rumors about him and PED use, there might be some writers who feel he should wait like Piazza had too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[the 'stache]

Trout has won two MVPs, has been runner up three times, and finished fourth this year. Had he not missed nearly fifty games, he would have won the MVP, not Altuve. Trout hit .306, scored 92 runs in 114 games, had 25 doubles, 33 home runs, 79 RBI, walked 94 times, stole 22 bases in 26 tries, and slashed .442 OBP/.629 SLG/1.071, all of which led the AL. His OPS was 114 points higher than Altuve's. Altuve had a great year. He had an 8.3 WAR and a 164 OPS +. Trout had a 6.7 WAR and a 187 OPS +. He'd have had about a 10.0 WAR...as a center fielder.

As great as Altuve is, there's no comparison. In 982 career games, Altuve has 29.6 WAR. In 925 games, Trout has 55.2 WAR.

Trout is an all-time great. Put it this way. After seven seasons, Mickey Mantle had a 174 OPS +. Trout's at the same point is 172. Mantle's WAR was 52.2. Trout bests him.

That should tell you how brilliant Trout is.

Originally Posted by clydepepper

...and then there's Mike Trout!


.

[the 'stache]

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Brooks Robinson has an OPS+ of 104. Would you not vote for him? Beltre has an OPS+ of 117. Beltre started his exceptional run at the plate since his age 31 season. Starting at age 25, he only had 2 down years. I don't see that as out of line, especially from a foreign player. It some times takes time to adjust to playing and living in a foreign country. Roberto Clemente's peak was age 31 to 35. I know convension today is a player's career is pretty much over by age 30, but that is not always true.

[Peter_Spaeth]

At age 30 Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson hadn't accomplished much of anything. I am sure there are other examples.

I looked it up. Joey Bautista. Dante Bichette. Lefty O'Doul.

[packs]

Beltre had only one good season in LA at 25 years old. He was signed as a 17 year old. His lone stellar season occurred 8 years after he was signed and while on the verge of free agency, so I don't really think being a foreign player had anything to do with his lack of production. He hit 334 in 2004. He would not hit 300 again until 2010, 5 years later after singing a one year deal and seeking another pay day.

The coincidences and timeline of his career would give me serious pause as a voter.

[JollyElm]

The thing with Beltre is I (and I am sure many, many, many others) had no frickin' idea how great his career numbers were. Am I the only one who was ignorant of this fact?? When I saw a post this past season talking about him closing in on 3,000 hits, to say I was shocked is the understatement of the century. Talk about flying under the radar. Never would've guessed it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Unlike the Cowboys, the Rangers are not exactly America's team. An easy place to go under the radar, I think, particularly where your seasons are solid but not spectacular. 175 hits a year adds up though.

[nat]

You wouldn't think it possible, but Beltre has quietly turned into an all-time great.

And I'd put the steroid speculation on ice. Of course it's possible to beat a test, but he's been getting tested every year for more than a decade. Sometimes unusual things happen, including being a late bloomer. Given that he's tested regularly, let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

At age 30 Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson hadn't accomplished much of anything. I am sure there are other examples.

I looked it up. Joey Bautista. Dante Bichette. Lefty O'Doul.

We ALL know, whether we admit it or not, that Knucksie juiced.

Stats aside, I still say that Beltre should go in (if only as a pioneer) just based on his moving the on-deck circle.