Depressing

Peter_Spaeth · #1 03-30-2018, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

It's been mentioned in the past that the hobby is going the direction of newer players, and the pre-war stuff may end up having the bottom fall out. While I don't completely agree with that statement, I just decided to search "PSA" on Ebay and sort by highest price first to see what's out there. Plenty of cards in the deep 6-digit range ($500k Thomas the Train card was entertaining). But, almost no pre-war anywhere near the top. Sure, people can ask whatever they want and it's no indication of value. But, even when you filter by sold cards, there are still plenty of people paying $50-100k for cards produced in the past 20 years. I won't tell folks what to spend their money on and it's obviously reflective of supply and demand. It still has me shaking my head. $50k for a Stanton refractor or$120k for a Lebron jersey card?

On a positive note, maybe this eventually drops the price of mid-grade 33' Goudey Ruths and T206 Cobbs to my price range.

Go check prices realized on a Heritage auction. You'll feel better.

orly57 · #2 03-30-2018, 05:46 PM

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

pherbener · #3 03-30-2018, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

Agreed. Many people colecting Trout, Judge et.al. today will move to Mantle, Ryan, Koufax and then to prewar. I'm sure plenty of us did the same thing. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of people collecting 50's and 60's PSA registry items move to prewar stuff eventually too.

toledo_mudhen · #4 03-30-2018, 06:02 PM

The Pre War Pool is still to deep for me.... Luckily tho, I find that the 50's just seem to scratch an itch for me......

bnorth · #5 03-30-2018, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pherbener

Agreed. Many people colecting Trout, Judge et.al. today will move to Mantle, Ryan, Koufax and then to prewar. I'm sure plenty of us did the same thing. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of people collecting 50's and 60's PSA registry items move to prewar stuff eventually too.

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

irv · #6 03-30-2018, 06:57 PM

Are Judge's cards still getting crazy high prices like they once were last year?

orly57 · #7 03-30-2018, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

ls7plus · #8 04-20-2018, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

+1 again, pretty much. Only it's not yet certain that even Mike Trout can continue to be Mike Trout. The home stretch isn't even in sight yet. The time to buy him, if he continues on his obvious very strong HOF path, will be in his mid-thirties' downslide, when the speculative and transient demand has vanished, and the newest latest and greatest phenom has come along. A PSA 8 NNOF Frank Thomas could have been had for approximately $500-$600 circa 2008 or so.

Highest regards, Orly,

Larry

CurtisFlood · #9 03-31-2018, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

MattyC · #10 03-31-2018, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CurtisFlood

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when �I get hit with the news� you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won�t care what my modern is worth� I am collecting.

CurtisFlood · #11 04-19-2018, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when �I get hit with the news� you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won�t care what my modern is worth� I am collecting.

Good plan. An old guy told me a long time ago to buy what you like. Then when it isn't worth anything at least you will like it.

Big Ben · #12 04-15-2018, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CurtisFlood

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

I agree with your post. I have not kept up with the new products, but I have to wonder about the expectations of a person paying thousands of dollars for a new card.

MattyC · #13 04-15-2018, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Ben

I agree with your post. I have not kept up with the new products, but I have to wonder about the expectations of a person paying thousands of dollars for a new card.

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

Gradedcardman · #14 04-15-2018, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

Would not of been able to say it better !!

ls7plus · #15 04-20-2018, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

+1 in general. The only trouble will arise when that $50K Stanton refractor becomes a $500.00 refractor, which is the likely, long-term result when the demand boosting it to that level is speculative and transient in nature, and disappears with time. Two definitions of insanity: (1) doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result; and (2) buying a Stanton refractor for $50K.

Best to all,

Larry

Bored5000 · #16 03-30-2018, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Go check prices realized on a Heritage auction. You'll feel better.

Correct. Searching by highest price on eBay and extrapolating out that people are more willing to spend huge cash on new cards is at least somewhat faulty because so much of the really top-level pre-war stuff doesn't get sold on eBay; it gets sold at places like REA, Heritage, Goldin.

How many Lebron jersey cards or Stanton refractors do you suppose will be up for auction at REA this year?

bbcard1 · #17 03-30-2018, 06:19 PM

Prewar seems very strong to me.

slidekellyslide · #18 03-30-2018, 06:31 PM

How many if those �new� cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

frankbmd · #19 03-30-2018, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

How many if those �new� cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

And they are all dead.

MattyC · #20 03-30-2018, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

How many if those “new” cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

To some who buy cards of modern players, the endeavor is not about potential value one way or the other. At its purest, back in boyhood, I'd venture collecting grew from a fondness and rooting for a specific player or team, not future monetary considerations.

Snapolit1 · #21 03-30-2018, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bored5000

Correct. Searching by highest price on eBay and extrapolating out that people are more willing to spend huge cash on new cards is at least somewhat faulty because so much of the really top-level pre-war stuff doesn't get sold on eBay; it gets sold at places like REA, Heritage, Goldin.

How many Lebron jersey cards or Stanton refractors do you suppose will be up for auction at REA this year?

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

orly57 · #22 03-30-2018, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

Didn't a Strasburg 1/1 sell on eBay for around a million bucks a few years ago? Heck of an investment for a guy who is 84-45 with a career era over 3.

Gary Dunaier · #23 04-15-2018, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

Didn't a Strasburg 1/1 sell on eBay for around a million bucks a few years ago? Heck of an investment for a guy who is 84-45 with a career era over 3.

Your numbers are way off... it was $16,000. But your point is still valid. Very valid.

At the time, Strasburg had yet to play a single game in the majors!

Here's a history of the Strasburg card: link. Fascinating in-depth look at a card that's less than 10 years old.

orly57 · #24 04-15-2018, 12:28 AM

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can’t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

MattyC · #25 04-15-2018, 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can�t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

This thing happens in the Pre and Post War space all the time, as well. Get a sale recorded in the pricing history, or parroted by a TPGs twitter account...and voila.

ls7plus · #26 04-20-2018, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can�t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

Truly a sad situation, IMHO. Shades of tuilipmania!

Regards,

Larry

MattyC · #27 03-30-2018, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

While I completely agree with the point quoted above, I'd respectfully hang a lantern on using the term "shiny crap," especially if one doesn't want to come off like a "pre-war snob" and unnecessarily offend a whole cross-section of their fellow baseball card enthusiasts.

I do agree an eBay search is not the ideal method of assessing the PreWar space, considering the likes of REA, Heritage, etc. are where so many great pieces in the space are routinely bought/sold.

Peter_Spaeth · #28 03-30-2018, 10:27 PM

I confess to buying the occasional shiny thing. My new Trout RC lol, very sparkly in hand.

MattyC · #29 03-30-2018, 10:32 PM

What a superb ballplayer. And a very cool-looking card to represent him in your collection, Peter. The game is so damn hard, and Trout makes it look so easy.

Peter_Spaeth · #30 03-30-2018, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

What a superb ballplayer. And a very cool-looking card to represent him in your collection, Peter. The game is so damn hard, and Trout makes it look so easy.

He and Harper (IMO the other great talent of this generation, although as yet not fully realized) are sort of yin and yang, although for all his bad ass veneer Harper is a very hard-working and fundamentally solid player.

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