Rea! Rea!! Rea!!!

barrysloate · #1 04-15-2018, 03:08 PM

And what's the deal with the Green Cobbs? I thought I might spring for one since there are a few nice lower grade examples. On the third day a few already have 30-35 bids and are deep into four figures, and these are a 2 and a 2.5. Is this market real, or is someone manipulating it? I mean folks, this just isn't a rare card. What are there, like two or three thousand of them out there? I call foul.

oldjudge · #2 04-15-2018, 03:41 PM

Barry-buy what is overlooked, not what is hot. Is there a more overhyped T206 than the green Cobb?

Peter_Spaeth · #3 04-15-2018, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry-buy what is overlooked, not what is hot. Is there a more overhyped T206 than the green Cobb?

The Magee/Magie error. Who cares?

sflayank · #4 04-15-2018, 03:51 PM

am i missing something here
ive seen 8 or 10 lummis ashburns which appear every year
there are only 2 or 3 of each current all stars which appear once a decade or more
rarity for the currents is greater and the demand is greater
therefore the price is greater

philliesphan · #5 04-15-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sflayank

ive seen 8 or 10 lummis ashburns which appear every year

No you haven't, Larry. There have been less than two Lummis Ashburn's to trade publicly over the last decade. You are probably thinking of the Sealtest Ashburn - which is a sticker, not a card, a slew of which found their way to market over the past few years.

I am agreeing with you that the demand is (much, much) greater for the Currents than the Lummis. You are perhaps current that the Lummis are slightly more plentiful than the Current - but only slightly. I'd argue that fewer than fifteen examples exist of some of the Lummis Phillies

iowadoc77 · #6 04-15-2018, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry-buy what is overlooked, not what is hot. Is there a more overhyped T206 than the green Cobb?

True. True. But it is so easy to go after what is hot because you feel like if it is that hot you have to have one. I have been guilty of this several times. Never seem to notice until after I have purchased for too much.

barrysloate · #7 04-15-2018, 03:51 PM

I agree Jay. I think it is also a case of panic buying, that if I don't buy one today it will just cost more tomorrow. As such, I will live without a Green Cobb. I can't tell you how many dozens of them I had in my early years in the hobby, so the appeal just isn't there at this price point.

ricktmd · #8 04-15-2018, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

And what's the deal with the Green Cobbs? I thought I might spring for one since there are a few nice lower grade examples. On the third day a few already have 30-35 bids and are deep into four figures, and these are a 2 and a 2.5. Is this market real, or is someone manipulating it? I mean folks, this just isn't a rare card. What are there, like two or three thousand of them out there? I call foul.

To Barry's point here. The Green Cobb and Bat On have nearly the same population on the PSA pop report. Two factors here . One is the popularity of the Green Cobb. Just a typical supply and demand curve. While no more rare than Bat On the popularity (demand) has increased the value. Second and more to Barry's point is several people are buying the Green Cobb's paying what they have to and then holding/hording or reselling at a substantial profit . There were dealers at the 2017 National with as many as 20 Green Cobb's who admit to buying all the Green Cobb's they can find. All Cobb T206's are up big though. I purchased a Red Portrait in a 2.5 with a PB back 2 years ago for 800.00. Now a PSA 2.5 goes for 2k or more

Snapolit1 · #9 04-15-2018, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ricktmd

To Barry's point here. The Green Cobb and Bat On have nearly the same population on the PSA pop report. Two factors here . One is the popularity of the Green Cobb. Just a typical supply and demand curve. While no more rare than Bat On the popularity (demand) has increased the value. Second and more to Barry's point is several people are buying the Green Cobb's paying what they have to and then holding/hording or reselling at a substantial profit . There were dealers at the 2017 National with as many as 20 Green Cobb's who admit to buying all the Green Cobb's they can find. All Cobb T206's are up big though. I purchased a Red Portrait in a 2.5 with a PB back 2 years ago for 800.00. Now a PSA 2.5 goes for 2k or more

I guess like the 52 Mantles, there is a nice supply of them and good demand so is it's a great card to build a market around. Hard to get excited about a one of seven card that no one ever sees if your goal is a quick buck.

And what's with the photo of Ruth and his Dad behind the bar? Was there a law passed somewhere that every major auction now has to have one of these. The first 4 or 5 times I saw one was kind of interesting but now just seems like a hot potato people buy and quickly pass to someone else.

barrysloate · #10 04-15-2018, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ricktmd

To Barry's point here. The Green Cobb and Bat On have nearly the same population on the PSA pop report. Two factors here . One is the popularity of the Green Cobb. Just a typical supply and demand curve. While no more rare than Bat On the popularity (demand) has increased the value. Second and more to Barry's point is several people are buying the Green Cobb's paying what they have to and then holding/hording or reselling at a substantial profit . There were dealers at the 2017 National with as many as 20 Green Cobb's who admit to buying all the Green Cobb's they can find. All Cobb T206's are up big though. I purchased a Red Portrait in a 2.5 with a PB back 2 years ago for 800.00. Now a PSA 2.5 goes for 2k or more

Thanks Rick. So if many people are hoarding Green Cobbs then that creates an artificial price point. No need for me to get caught up in it. There are plenty of other great cards to buy that are not in such great demand.

oldjudge · #11 04-15-2018, 06:36 PM

Just don't start vacuuming up 19th Century. The last thing we need is a new whale.

mechanicalman · #12 04-15-2018, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Thanks Rick. So if many people are hoarding Green Cobbs then that creates an artificial price point. No need for me to get caught up in it. There are plenty of other great cards to buy that are not in such great demand.

I don�t think your point jives with Rick�s. He said that people are buying a bunch of Green Cobbs and then selling them for substantial profit. So how is �hoarding� creating an artificial �price point� if the hoarders are selling at a higher price?

Republicaninmass · #13 04-15-2018, 07:31 PM

The greater fool theory

Peter_Spaeth · #14 04-15-2018, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I don’t think your point jives with Rick’s. He said that people are buying a bunch of Green Cobbs and then selling them for substantial profit. So how is “hoarding” creating an artificial “price point” if the hoarders are selling at a higher price?

Rick said holding/hoarding OR reselling. In other words they are depressing the available supply and trickling them out at an inflated price.

mechanicalman · #15 04-15-2018, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Rick said holding/hoarding OR reselling. In other words they are depressing the available supply and trickling them out at an inflated price.

Peter, it was mentioned that there are display cases of 20+ Green Cobbs offered at the National by these “hoarders.” And they’re selling. How is that trickling out supply?

Peter_Spaeth · #16 04-15-2018, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Peter, it was mentioned that there are display cases of 20+ Green Cobbs offered at the National by these “hoarders.” And they’re selling. How is is trickling our supply?

I am just trying to interpret Rick's words, I have no idea about the Green Cobb market. Though if they're all priced to the moon, then they might as well not be for sale at all, unless you're someone who is price inelastic and just has to have one.

PiratesWS1979 · #17 04-15-2018, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Peter, it was mentioned that there are display cases of 20+ Green Cobbs offered at the National by these �hoarders.� And they�re selling. How is that trickling out supply?

Didn't a member show a pic a few months ago of a couple dozen green Cobb's he's hoarding?

barrysloate · #18 04-15-2018, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I don�t think your point jives with Rick�s. He said that people are buying a bunch of Green Cobbs and then selling them for substantial profit. So how is �hoarding� creating an artificial �price point� if the hoarders are selling at a higher price?

As Peter mentioned it is creating a price spiral. The hoarding causes greater demand and the price keeps going up. If dealers or collectors decide they no longer want to keep buying them, the price will go down. Cards that get very hot typically cool off. Can't say for sure, but right now it looks terribly overpriced.

Peter_Spaeth · #19 04-15-2018, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

As Peter mentioned it is creating a price spiral. The hoarding causes greater demand and the price keeps going up. If dealers or collectors decide they no longer want to keep buying them, the price will go down. Cards that get very hot typically cool off. Can't say for sure, but right now it looks terribly overpriced.

These things usually self correct. Ultimately the supply is too big to control although you can create some short to medium term dislocations.