First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),

no way Nick will have another healthy year as well. Funny how one year can erase years and years of questionable health.. Ryan Zimmerman last year erased all of those unhealthy years and look at him this year...health issue.

Lets have a guy have back to back good years when they are in their 30s before we project another 4 or so years..

[packs]

He's 34 and almost 1,000 hits shy of 3,000. I don't even see a remote chance he reaches 3,000. He hasn't even gotten 900 hits in the past 5 seasons while in his prime. Is there any reason to think he'll be an every day player till he's 40? How many of those are there?

[Peter_Spaeth]

For 10 points no cheating name the only player under 30 with 1500 hits. It isn't Altuve.