In light of T206 fiasco...

[egri]

I am torn; this seems so much bigger than anything that has happened that I can recall that I want to say there will be a long term impact; that so many of the cards passed multiple TPAs suggests either gross negligence or involvement on their part. OTOH, we know that Probstein and PWCC shill bid; people still bid with them, we know that the Gretzky Wagner is trimmed; it still passed PSA, we know that TPAs have all kinds of problems; at the National, PSA always has a line out the door. Stuff trumps scruples, and I would not be surprised if the next 'find' of signed prewar yields the same excitement and prices as before.

Side note: what on earth is going on with CLCT stock? At the end of January they were trading at $30/share, then a week later they were down to almost half of that, and been roughly stagnant since.

[Leon]

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors or their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

Originally Posted by egri

I am torn; this seems so much bigger than anything that has happened that I can recall that I want to say there will be a long term impact; that so many of the cards passed multiple TPAs suggests either gross negligence or involvement on their part. OTOH, we know that Probstein and PWCC shill bid; people still bid with them, we know that the Gretzky Wagner is trimmed; it still passed PSA, we know that TPAs have all kinds of problems; at the National, PSA always has a line out the door. Stuff trumps scruples, and I would not be surprised if the next 'find' of signed prewar yields the same excitement and prices as before.

Side note: what on earth is going on with CLCT stock? At the end of January they were trading at $30/share, then a week later they were down to almost half of that, and been roughly stagnant since.

[jgmp123]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors of their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

You also have to take into consideration the volume that Probstein and PWCC are putting out there. It's going to be hard for them to have a team of "shill bidders"..I assume it's possible, but doubtful.

[phikappapsi]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors of their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

Agree 100% - those guys are the ones I specifically DONT worry about shilling. They do so much volume, and have so many people that literally use their name as the search term, rather than the specific cards/pieces they want that their traffic always gets them top end pricing. The guys I'd worry about shilling are the ones that sell for a living, but at low volumes. The guys selling 100-300 cards a month, that really need to extract prices, and might have less traffic organically to their items.

[jimjim]

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by jimjim

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

Yes, and I think anyone buying autographs in our hobby today needs to be really, really careful. As Jeff L said in one of the big threads, there weren't near as many autographs 10-20 yrs ago as there are today. It seems they are being made out of thin air. Collect govt and notarized docs and you have a better chance of being safe.

[prewarsports]

Most of the guys who have been in the autograph hobby for a long time have always been VERY skeptical of signed T206 cards. Anyone who died before the late 1960's would have never signed a T206 card. Their mere existence is an anomaly as nobody was attempting to go back to the good old days and get autographs on gum cards until AFTER "Glory of Their Times" came out in the late 1960's. Because of this, I dont think anyone that was big into autographs before this fiasco is getting out of the hobby as a result. The magnitude and depth of these forgeries are shocking, but the fact that most of the signed T206 cards in the hobby are fake is not.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by prewarsports

Most of the guys who have been in the autograph hobby for a long time have always been VERY skeptical of signed T206 cards. Anyone who died before the late 1960's would have never signed a T206 card. Their mere existence is an anomaly as nobody was attempting to go back to the good old days and get autographs on gum cards until AFTER "Glory of Their Times" came out in the late 1960's. Because of this, I dont think anyone that was big into autographs before this fiasco is getting out of the hobby as a result. The magnitude and depth of these forgeries are shocking, but the fact that most of the signed T206 cards in the hobby are fake is not.

Well-said. What I've found is that there will be autographs that I am positive are real. Those are the ones I buy. The ones that I think are probably real, or might be real, even if they look great - I wait for one that I am 'positive' about. If I were collecting signed T206 cards I would be limited to only a few signers, as I've only seen a few that looked positively real - we all know which cards those are: Marquard comes to mind, but there are others from the period that Rhys mentions. It sucks that you can't have a signed T206 Addie Joss, but if enough of you ask, they'll start turning up.

[tazdmb]

Originally Posted by jimjim

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

This! I have noted quite in uptick in this the last two years, and have spoke to various TPAs about this. Amazing what a #6 adds to value of a Mantle Ball. Plus everyone I have seen lately seems to authenticated by JSA. They are all over Facebook 101 also. I called them out and got banned....hmm.

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by tazdmb

This! I have noted quite in uptick in this the last two years, and have spoke to various TPAs about this. Amazing what a #6 adds to value of a Mantle Ball. Plus everyone I have seen lately seems to authenticated by JSA. They are all over Facebook 101 also. I called them out and got banned....hmm.

The number of rare inscribed baseballs hitting the market over the last 2-3 years has been insane. Just makes one wonder about authenticity. Are old time dealers dumping stock or is something more sinister going on? Just last month I saw a very rare HOF inscribed ball in an auction house lot with 5 other easier to find balls. I have seen 3 of these rare HoF balls over the past 5 years. The other balls in the lot are a dime a dozen. They came with an auction house COA. So I start asking myself, why is this ball not being sold by itself in its own lot? Why does it not have a full letter coa? Maybe the auction house didn’t realize the rarity? Too many questions that need to be answered.