10K for a Young portrait in a 5

pokerplyr80 · #1 12-06-2018, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

MVSNYC · #2 12-07-2018, 07:59 AM

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Millerd33 · #3 12-07-2018, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Lajoie has seen insane price increases. It wasn't long ago that was an 85.00 card as a 1. Now you can't touch one under 200.00.

Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off.

Rhotchkiss · #4 12-07-2018, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

ullmandds · #5 12-07-2018, 11:05 AM

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

Throttlesteer · #6 12-07-2018, 12:59 PM

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

Leon · #7 12-07-2018, 01:08 PM

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

boneheadandrube · #8 12-07-2018, 01:15 PM

Maybe someone is buying X-mas gifts.

ullmandds · #9 12-07-2018, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

Truth hurts sometimes.

Throttlesteer · #10 12-07-2018, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

You must derive income from the hobby to have that point of view?

I wish this was even a possibility. Sadly, I just miss out on a lot of great cards because others have deep pockets. I just focus on other things that don't get the attention.

Most of the mayhem seems to be around portraits. I'm guessing these high bidders are trying to anticipate the next green Cobb or something.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #11 12-07-2018, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH�s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

ullmandds · #12 12-07-2018, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

Haha...I tell you...it's a conundrum. I DO believe there may be a few wealthy collectors who don't care what they spend on some high quality old cardboard...they just pay whatever it takes to get what they want...it's possible. But on Cy young/Walter Johnson portrait t206's...it just seems a little too convenient for me as a way to rationalize the running up of certain cards just as was done a few years ago with high grade 50's rookie cards by a "group" of people in the hobby.

AddieJoss · #13 12-09-2018, 08:56 AM

These T206 HOFs are not �rare� in the sense there are very few that exist. What is happening though is that they are showing up for sale much less frequently. That is driving up prices as many are buying and stashing in Thier collections. So when a card that one wants does show up in the grade desired, folks are paying up instead of waiting a long time for another to appear.
Cory Weiser

3-2-count · #14 12-16-2018, 11:16 AM

Another big price last night in Memory Lane for a superior looking mid grade Matty portrait. $6,290.00 after the juice.

This same card sold in April of this year for $3,295.00.

Peter_Spaeth · #15 12-07-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

This.
I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.

paleocards · #16 12-07-2018, 04:10 PM

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):

WaJo_09_PSA.jpg

And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:

matty09_PSA5.jpg

Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Peter_Spaeth · #17 12-07-2018, 04:18 PM

Those are very nice 5s, exactly of the sort I look for myself.

Rhotchkiss · #18 12-07-2018, 04:42 PM

Paleocards, please know I was not knocking record holders. Indeed, I hold a few records myself. When you see you want, sometimes you just gotta go for it. That�s probably what happened with Mr Deep Pockets. But query whether he was bidding against another Deep Pocket or someone else with different intentions?

And I agree, I would take your cards all day long for half the price. You did well

Throttlesteer · #19 12-07-2018, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paleocards

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):

Attachment 336663

And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:

Attachment 336664

Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Beautiful 5s!

Touch'EmAll · #20 12-07-2018, 05:25 PM

Nice fat borders on those 2. The Johnson is particularly nice, congrats. Who knows, in due time they might look like bargains.

Peter_Spaeth · #21 12-07-2018, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

The first post was quoting Brent. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.

dariushou · #22 12-07-2018, 11:35 PM

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

Leon · #23 12-08-2018, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dariushou

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

frankbmd · #24 12-08-2018, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

Forget about cards Leon. Think of the hammer price of your thinking cap at auction. Where will you consign?

Aquarian Sports Cards · #25 12-08-2018, 09:49 AM

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

Peter_Spaeth · #26 12-08-2018, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

Right. In a market like this where people rely heavily on historical prices, you just need to be able to manipulate the price, not control supply. In 2016 plenty of people started to panic and pay insane prices for cards fearing they would go even higher.

One of my favorites, a Koufax RC in an 8 for 80K. Right.

http://goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.as...entoryid=33087

Even more disturbing was the disingenuous writeup.

Koufax.

Be Prepared for Return on Investment.

Koufax rookies are among the hottest cards in the hobby today. Demand is outpacing supply on a consistent basis and the market has reacted. Prices at auction continue to escalate provided the condition is at the highest level. And at a PSA 8, there aren’t many examples that exceed this magnificent offering. In fact, 15 PSA 8.5’s are known, to go with 22 PSA 9’s and 3 GEM MINT 10’s.

For the discerning collector or the profit-driven investor, this card should be an automatic. The Koufax rookie card’s climb has been as remarkable as Koufax pitching at Dodger Stadium on a hot summer day. We expect the day to come very soon, when Koufax rookies at PSA 8 will be selling well in excess of $200,000 and perhaps as $250,000. If you’ve ever contemplated a Clemente rookie, we strongly encourage you investigate this card.

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