Mariano

JollyElm · #1 01-24-2019, 03:44 PM

Say what you will about Riviera, but it's pretty simple. I would've given anything to have him closing games for my Mets.

doug.goodman · #2 01-24-2019, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Say what you will about Riviera, but it's pretty simple. I would've given anything to have him closing games for my Mets.

In 2013 (the only year I looked at) they still would have finished third.

JollyElm · #3 01-24-2019, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

In 2013 (the only year I looked at) they still would have finished third.

I obviously meant it as a generality, but let's do some logical thinking then regarding the human element. If the Mets had the Rivera bullet in the chamber, who knows what other aspects of their game would have improved? Think of the confidence the Yankees had all of those years knowing the door would be slammed shut in the ninth with Rivera. (Yes, they had other fine players, but so did the Mets many, many times.) We all saw it. It happened with us watching, unlike theorizing about games from the 20's where cold stats alone have to tell the entire story. Uber confidence. Contrast that with the Mets. Each and every game they're in with a lead has us slump-shouldered fans (and I'm sure the entire team) thinking, "My God. What reliever is going to come in now and blow it??!!!" (Yes, I know, you'd have to get middle relievers who can actually get someone out.) Having Mariano as your go-to guy would have eliminated so much of that.

doug.goodman · #4 01-24-2019, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I obviously meant it as a generality, but let's do some logical thinking then regarding the human element. If the Mets had the Rivera bullet in the chamber, who knows what other aspects of their game would have improved? Think of the confidence the Yankees had all of those years knowing the door would be slammed shut in the ninth with Rivera. (Yes, they had other fine players, but so did the Mets many, many times.) We all saw it. It happened with us watching, unlike theorizing about games from the 20's where cold stats alone have to tell the entire story. Uber confidence. Contrast that with the Mets. Each and every game they're in with a lead has us slump-shouldered fans (and I'm sure the entire team) thinking, "My God. What reliever is going to come in now and blow it??!!!" (Yes, I know, you'd have to get middle relievers who can actually get someone out.) Having Mariano as your go-to guy would have eliminated so much of that.

You may have felt better but you would have generally had the same season outcomes. See David Smith's research paper on closers linked in my post below.

JollyElm · #5 01-24-2019, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

You may have felt better but you would have generally had the same season outcomes. See David Smith's research paper on closers linked in my post below.

Just a lapse in logic. The season outcomes may or may not have been the same, but your reliance on pure stats is funny. Mariano wasn't on the Mets, so there's no way to know what coulda/woulda/shoulda happened. It is all theoretical, as my thoughts on his probable positive impact are. But again, WE WERE ALIVE ACTUALLY WATCHING THE GAMES HE WAS IN, and saw what Rivera brought to the table. Just hearing "Enter Sandman" come on, you knew the game was virtually over. Reading black and white numbers on a page doesn't include what impact he would have had on the team as a whole.

doug.goodman · #6 01-24-2019, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Just a lapse in logic. The season outcomes may or may not have been the same, but your reliance on pure stats is funny. Mariano wasn't on the Mets, so there's no way to know what coulda/woulda/shoulda happened. It is all theoretical, as my thoughts on his probable positive impact are. But again, WE WERE ALIVE ACTUALLY WATCHING THE GAMES HE WAS IN, and saw what Rivera brought to the table. Just hearing "Enter Sandman" come on, you knew the game was virtually over. Reading black and white numbers on a page doesn't include what impact he would have had on the team as a whole.

I go to games.

I get it.

We had Gagne in LA for a few years. He had 152 saves in 3 years, while also going 13-7.

Mariano's best three year run was 136 saves, while going 16-8.

So I have experienced pretty similar talent (at least for a short run) in person, so I understand the "here he comes no way we can lose" fan thinking.

That doesn't change any of my posts.

Peter_Spaeth · #7 01-24-2019, 06:26 PM

Yep -- the numbers show that the game is virtually over no matter who comes in. If you're a fan watching and Rivera gets a save, of course the tendency is to credit Rivera, but the real question for the student of the game is what happens in alternative scenarios.

howard38 · #8 01-25-2019, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

You may have felt better but you would have generally had the same season outcomes. See David Smith's research paper on closers linked in my post below.

Same regular season outcomes but there is a good chance the Mets would have won the 2006 NL pennant if they had Rivera as their closer instead of Billy Wagner.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Mariano Rivera	MrSeven	Autograph Forum- Primarily Sports	8	03-02-2019 08:59 AM
Does anyone have a Mariano RC , or AROD sp rookie ? LTB	soxfan1986	1980 & Newer Sports Cards B/S/T	7	01-17-2016 04:55 PM
My 1992 Mariano Rivera From PSA	herbc	Modern Baseball Cards Forum (1980-Present)	4	06-12-2015 08:05 PM
Looking for Signed Jeter and Mariano!!	Nappy1525	Autographs & Game Used B/S/T	0	11-10-2014 06:35 PM
f/s: '92 bowman mariano rivera...$47	chaddurbin	1980 & Newer Sports Cards B/S/T	0	08-19-2013 03:35 PM