Ever wondered how many ACTIVE collectors there are in the United States?

Empty77 · #1 03-24-2019, 11:22 AM

I think Leon's approach was best, to estimate based on a known fixed number like total population and then take a percentage of that based on a personal experience/common sense guestimate of how many people out of X that you pass on the street might be a card collector.

Another problem with guessing based on a percentage of total sales, besides there being so many sources of sales, with private companies not necessarily publishing that information, is the problem of figuring an average spend per collector per year---given that number could be wildly compromised by dealers/speculators in the hobby who aren't collecting per se but bidding against everyone for items simply to try and flip them. This could variously inflate or deflate the guestimate of collectors depending on how you look at it.

RCMcKenzie · #2 03-24-2019, 12:38 PM

It depends upon how you define 'collector.' I think tens of millions of people are baseball fans and might have a Carlton Fisk autographed photo or a Doc Gooden baseball in their office. The number of people that are daily grinding on a 1950's Topps set is probably less than 8,000 people. The number of people that might outbid me on T213 etc is like 8 and they are all on this board and have been for years and years.

JunkyJoe · #3 03-24-2019, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Empty77

I think Leon's approach was best, to estimate based on a known fixed number like total population and then take a percentage of that based on a personal experience/common sense guestimate of how many people out of X that you pass on the street might be a card collector.

This could work as long as we get several samples across the US -- urban/suburban/central/east/west/ etc... -- and as long as our common sense guesstimate is a general consensus among a decent-sized group of veteran collectors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Empty77

Another problem with guessing based on a percentage of total sales, besides there being so many sources of sales, with private companies not necessarily publishing that information, is the problem of figuring an average spend per collector per year---given that number could be wildly compromised by dealers/speculators in the hobby who aren't collecting per se but bidding against everyone for items simply to try and flip them. This could variously inflate or deflate the guestimate of collectors depending on how you look at it.

Agree, coming up with that average $ spent per collector / per year would go beyond a simple coin toss. I think this would also have to be hashed out amongst a large group of veteran collectors, to get a somewhat realistic number anyway. I also agree that the dealers/flippers would skew the numbers, which is why we'd have to include them as "active collectors," simply because they are a big part of the current market influence/prices at any given point in time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

It depends upon how you define 'collector.' I think tens of millions of people are baseball fans and might have a Carlton Fisk autographed photo or a Doc Gooden baseball in their office. The number of people that are daily grinding on a 1950's Topps set is probably less than 8,000 people. The number of people that might outbid me on T213 etc is like 8 and they are all on this board and have been for years and years.

I'd define an active collector as running the gamut -- from buying a couple cards a year for a few hundred$ ....to the collectors making weekly purchases and spending a few thousand$ per year ....all the way up to the dealers spending tens-of-thousands$ per year (see my response to Empty77 a couple paragraphs up), and even the rich dudes spending upwards of a couple-hundred-thousand$$$ per year on high grade Mantles, Mint Postwar rookies, etc.

Bigdaddy · #4 03-24-2019, 10:31 PM

So I'm thinking the best way to get to the number is to first all of agree on what the definition of a collector is - is it the 10 year old kid whose father gave him some cards for his birthday, the older 'retired' hobbyist who has a nice collection but doesn't spend $$ on it anymore, or is it the guy chasing the shiny stuff?

I'd put out a definition that a collector is anyone who would be interested in going to the National should it be around the corner from his neighborhood.

If we all agree on a definition, then let's all put up our best guess and then use the 'wisdom of crowds' to get to a best estimate.

My guess is based on the people I work with, which is about 2000. Of those, I know of two other collectors, and probably don't know of another 2-4. So that's a total of about 6 per 2000 people, or .0.3%. If the US population is 327 million, that gives us 981,000 'collectors'.

What's your number?

JunkyJoe · #5 03-25-2019, 12:17 AM

Hello all,

I went ahead and edited my original post to include "ACTIVE Collectors" in the thread title, to try and eliminate some of the confusion. So by "active" collectors, I'm talking about those who've made purchases in the past year or so, and who are still actively looking or bidding at least once every few months. They may spend as little as $100 or $200 this year on a couple of cards for their collection.

I'm sure there are collectors who attend the major shows, yet they manage to not make any purchases. I'd have to think that for most of them, however, if they are interested enough to attend a show, then they most likely will be making at least one or two minor purchases at some point during that year. Or, are there a good number of attendees who only browse and never buy, or who still attend shows but haven't added to their collections in years?

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