Another card investment thread

Peter_Spaeth · #1 04-11-2019, 09:07 AM

You will get as many answers as there are posters. Which I am sure will be helpful.

barrysloate · #2 04-11-2019, 09:12 AM

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

frankbmd · #3 04-11-2019, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You will get as many answers as there are posters. Which I am sure will be helpful.

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

Years ago I always went to the barber shop to get investment advice, but since I now have no hair, I�m stuck with Net54.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 04-11-2019, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Years ago I always went to the barber shop to get investment advice, but since I now have no hair, I�m stuck with Net54.

I hope you followed the sage advice not long ago to buy bitcoin.

Leon · #5 04-11-2019, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Years ago I always went to the barber shop to get investment advice, but since I now have no hair, I�m stuck with Net54.

LOL

And Barry, I don't personally care if people want to invest in cards without knowing or even liking them. It's American and I have a laissez-faire attitude.

barrysloate · #6 04-11-2019, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

LOL

And Barry, I don't personally care if people want to invest in cards without knowing or even liking them. It's American and I have a laissez-faire attitude.

That's perfectly fine, but my point was that if investors who don't collect are buying cards to sell to other investors who don't collect, that's not the bedrock for a solid market. People are of course free to do whatever they want, I'm just suggesting that it's the real long term collectors who make the hobby what it is. Speculators on the other hand create the bubble economy. You're confusing what we are free to do versus what is prudent to do.

toledo_mudhen · #7 04-12-2019, 05:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Years ago I always went to the barber shop to get investment advice, but since I now have no hair, I�m stuck with Net54.

When I was a kid - the Barber Shop had a Pristine example of a Jackalope mounted on the wall. Such a rare creature - Haven't seen another one since.

buymycards · #8 04-12-2019, 08:18 AM

Yelich

Republicaninmass · #9 04-12-2019, 08:26 AM

Unlike coins, which have an intrinsic value, Stocks (without dividends) only carry a perceived value, similar to cards. They are only worth what someone will pay, and are subject to a catalysts within and outside if their respective marketplace.

In this regard, cards are are a similar "investment vehicle" to (non-dividend) stocks.

joshuanip · #10 04-12-2019, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Unlike coins, which have an intrinsic value, Stocks (without dividends) only carry a perceived value, similar to cards. They are only worth what someone will pay, and are subject to a catalysts within and outside if their respective marketplace.

In this regard, cards are are a similar "investment vehicle" to (non-dividend) stocks.

I respectfully disagree on these points. Everything is �perceived�.

Coins intrinsic value is limited to face value which is nominal. Anything above is collectible value, same as baseball cards but without the attachment to history.

Stocks without dividends are valued based on its growth rate of future free cash flows (augmented by one time tax cuts, unsustainable accommodative central banks, and admittedly a strong economy) discounted by a historically low Goldilocks discount rate, and impacted by smoke and mirrors stock buybacks and positive headline risk fomo.

Cards are impacted by general asset (re)valuation, employment, and people�s liquidity requirements as it impacts short term supply and demand.

They all have different coefficients, but would suspect coins and cards have higher correlation and r squared than cards and stocks.

Peter_Spaeth · #11 04-12-2019, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buymycards

Yelich

Location: Wisconsin

Biased!!

Bicem · #12 04-12-2019, 09:56 AM

Well said Joshua.

Mark17 · #13 04-11-2019, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

Great point.

I would suggest they get a box of 500 silver Maple Leaf ounce coins for about $8,500 and the best PSA graded T205 Joss they could get for the remainder of the dough. To me, that is the most under-rated card in that set.

ullmandds · #14 04-11-2019, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

I'd recommend fine 18th century english furniture...always in good taste!!!!

barrysloate · #15 04-11-2019, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'd recommend fine 18th century english furniture...always in good taste!!!!

I hear 18th century English furniture makes excellent fire wood.

LincolnVT · #16 04-11-2019, 10:11 AM

Something Ruth related...

darwinbulldog · #17 04-11-2019, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

I think it's just a sly way to get people to divulge what they're hiding in their collections.

Cozumeleno · #18 04-11-2019, 09:34 AM

Based on the rarity and where the green Ty Cobb T206 is, Cobb's T205 has seemed undervalued to me for a while.

x2drich2000 · #19 04-11-2019, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

Not anymore than people who blindly put money into the stock market or their 401k without researching the funds they have chosen. People should have a full understanding of what they are investing in regardless of the type of investment.

packs · #20 04-11-2019, 09:33 AM

I'd put the money into multiple blue chip cards over one card. Let's say you buy that Cobb PC and you make $5,000. Maybe that's good, but I'd rather buy all the Green Cobbs I could with 10K and then make the multiples later. If you bought 5 Green Cobbs for 10K 5 years ago you're looking at a huge windfall now.

Huysmans · #21 04-11-2019, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

Not anymore than people who blindly put money into the stock market or their 401k without researching the funds they have chosen. People should have a full understanding of what they are investing in regardless of the type of investment.

Huge difference in that the stock market has been the traditional vehicle for investments. The same cannot be stated in any realistic or tangible way regarding baseball cards.

AGuinness · #22 04-11-2019, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huysmans

Huge difference in that the stock market has been the traditional vehicle for investments. The same cannot be stated in any realistic or tangible way regarding baseball cards.

I think it's completely realistic and tangible to say that people put money in the stock market and in baseball cards without doing enough due diligence. And real estate, currency, stamps and on and on, traditional or not.

Huysmans · #23 04-11-2019, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I think it's completely realistic and tangible to say that people put money in the stock market and in baseball cards without doing enough due diligence. And real estate, currency, stamps and on and on, traditional or not.

Sorry, while I agree that people should know what they're investing in, this logic is spurious.
Line up people with money to invest and ask them which they would sooner choose, baseball cards or the stock market... with no knowledge whatsoever of either, most if not all will choose the stock market. Again, one is tried and tested, the other, not in any perceivable way, hence, the comparison is not apt.

AGuinness · #24 04-11-2019, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huysmans

Sorry, while I agree that people should know what they're investing in, this logic is spurious.
Line up people with money to invest and ask them which they would sooner choose, baseball cards or the stock market... with no knowledge whatsoever of either, most if not all will choose the stock market. Again, one is tried and tested, the other, not in any perceivable way, hence, the comparison is not apt.

I think the point of comparison with the stock market is that both cards and stocks have uneducated people investing, which is apt because the risk inherent in that approach (regardless of investment type). This thread is not an "either/or" exercise about lining people up to pick sides, as I have read it.
Even so, on this tangent, I might take the side that the sports card market has at least some perceivable way been tested through a few decades of auction house results, even if this testing is in its infancy.

AGuinness · #25 04-11-2019, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

Not anymore than people who blindly put money into the stock market or their 401k without researching the funds they have chosen. People should have a full understanding of what they are investing in regardless of the type of investment.

This is it in a nutshell. More people put more money in blue chip stocks or index funds without due diligence than in sports cards, and I'm sure EVERY investment (or quasi-investment) has a certain percentage of people doing this.
One of my biggest lessons, whether for my PC or cards I intent to flip, is to buy cards that I will enjoy even if the market collapses. I may lose, but I will still have something to enjoy.
With that in mind, I'd also suggest that your family member consider other places to invest this money. From your description, this $10k isn't going to make or break them, so I would ask them what they are interested in or passionate about and find something that they can get personal enjoyment out of. Art, wine, comics, tulip bulbs (ok, maybe not that), vinyl, whatever. This could be more than an opportunity to make money, this could be a chance to develop a hobby and gain more experience and expertise in a field they enjoy.

conor912 · #26 04-11-2019, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So people now want to invest in baseball cards without being card collectors and without any knowledge of what they should buy. Does that concern anyone?

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

rjackson44 · #27 04-11-2019, 09:47 AM

leons card is gorgeous

Republicaninmass · #28 04-11-2019, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by conor912

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

Quoted for truth

The Nasty Nati · #29 04-11-2019, 11:06 AM

My opinion. Invest in the bluechip sets of T206, 1933 Goudey, and 1952 Topps. People will always come back to those sets. Of the 3 sets, I think Goudey have the greatest potential for growth. Many of the key Hofers are undervalued IMO.

And if you're looking outside of the Big 3 sets, I think a good investment is picking up the true rookie cards of HoFers. Oldcardboard.com has a great list of HOF rookie cards. Postcards and Exhibit RCs that were once ignored are now seeing a surge and they will only go up. Collectors more and more care about first appearances and I think the Bowman Chrome Prospect craze has fueled that.

groundskeeper · #30 04-11-2019, 11:06 AM

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

The Nasty Nati · #31 04-11-2019, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Fair point, but even when the baby boomer generation dies off, kids of baby boomers will still want to collect Mantle as it was their father's favorite player of that generation.

And I think 30 years from now, the 1952 Mantle will always be a top 5 card in the hobby. That card single-handedly started the card collecting craze of the 1980s/90s. Now kids from the 1980s/90s are in their 30s and 40s and they will have spending power for quite some time.

Golfcollector · #32 04-11-2019, 11:23 AM

If you want a rare cobb you might be able to offer around 10K. I think the seller may take it (and no, I am not the seller and do not know the seller)

https://www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-7-TY-CO...kAAOSwGIZcU24N

groundskeeper · #33 04-11-2019, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Fair point, but even when the baby boomer generation dies off, kids of baby boomers will still want to collect Mantle as it was their father's favorite player of that generation.

And I think 30 years from now, the 1952 Mantle will always be a top 5 card in the hobby. That card single-handedly started the card collecting craze of the 1980s/90s. Now kids from the 1980s/90s are in their 30s and 40s and they will have spending power for quite some time.

I can only speak for myself, but as someone in his 30s whose father liked Mickey Mantle, I will never buy that card anywhere in the same universe as the current prices. He's below Dimaggio on the collector scale to me. I got Mantle in my Ted Williams-tier price range. Seeing the 52 sell in the MILLIONS.....uhhh, that is going to crash. If I didn't know any prices, I'd think a 52 Mantle PSA 7 would be worth about $8,500 to me right now.

Peter_Spaeth · #34 04-11-2019, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

Agreed on Ruth. I think Gehrig and Jackie Robinson have transcendent appeal too.

griffon512 · #35 04-11-2019, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

I would not "invest" in cards.
THAT SAID, there are ones I clearly think are going to decline, long run.

Mickey Mantle has almost no appeal for people of my generation. Zero. The prices people pay on those cards are purely Baby Boomer supported.

Cobb seems like a blue chip legend but if even a TASTE of the social justice movement gets into this hobby, he is going to take a serious hit. I know I avoid Cap Anson cards for this reason. Try selling that in 20 years for a profit (over inflation).

I bought Cy Young as one of my first cards because it seemed cheap for a guy with contemporary name recognition (CY Young Award hit the news every year), and he will never lose the most wins record. But I think there's a ceiling to his appeal, and it is approaching.

Ruth is the king. The gold standard.

If you were investing in Confederate statues I'd worry. I wouldn't overly worry about a similar dynamic on vintage baseball cards/players. If it does hit vintage cards there will be much bigger issues to be concerned about than our hobby.

joshuanip · #36 04-11-2019, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by conor912

This was my first thought. This is not good. Once people who have no idea what they're doing start getting in, it usually signifies a problem.

For me not one bit. TPGs have limitations, but they are commoditizing (raw cards into value buckets) makes it easier to assign value, thus adding liquidity, thus adding value. In fact, the more we get to i) a market where graded cards are the standard and ii) price indications as a result of online sales research (ebay and auctions), the more our cards will retain value and withstand future market dislocations.

The fact that people are interested and looking into card collecting is a GOOD thing, not something to be weary of. (I'd be more weary of having no where to hide in this asset bubble environment we are in.)

conor912 · #37 04-11-2019, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip

For me not one bit. TPGs have limitations, but they are commoditizing (raw cards into value buckets) makes it easier to assign value, thus adding liquidity, thus adding value. In fact, the more we get to i) a market where graded cards are the standard and ii) price indications as a result of online sales research (ebay and auctions), the more our cards will retain value and withstand future market dislocations.

The fact that people are interested and looking into card collecting is a GOOD thing, not something to be weary of. (I'd be more weary of having no where to hide in this asset bubble environment we are in.)

I pretty much agree with all of this... within the context of modest, steady growth. But when a market becomes so hot so fast that Joe Schmoe down the street starts asking about what cards to "invest in", that has historically signified the end of the food chain. That's when the insiders dump everything on Joe for inflated prices and leave him with the shit end of the stick. That said, I think you make an interesting point that grading has caused a bit of a paradigm shift which may very well be a permanent disruption. Only time will tell.

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