Anybody watched Jeopardy lately?

[CW]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Everyone in the top 6 has a good chunk of money from the various tournaments. That's almost 99% of Brad's prize money. Ken is the only one who made anywhere close to a million dollars in his initial run. It ended up being over 2 million. The shaggy guy from a couple of years ago is Austin Rogers. He's a lot of fun to watch.

The current guy is always announced as "a professional sports gambler," but I don't know if that includes playing poker or just wagering on sporting events. Anyway, he clearly knows what he's doing, in addition to knowing pretty much everything that comes up in the game.

Interesting. Thanks, Glenn. I just spent a few minutes on Wikipedia fully educating myself on Jennings' and Rutter's gameshow careers.

And, yep, the player I was trying to recall was Austin Rogers. It would be one thing to be quirky and funny, but combine that with being a sharp contestant and it makes for good entertainment. Here's a montage of his run on the show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTjPoz7MMKs

[barrysloate]

He set the all-time one day record tonight with over $137,000 and his ten day total is just shy of 700K. He has the top four single day totals. Wow, what a machine.

This is the first night I've seen him, and I am amazed at his speed. You need to be young to bring up information so quickly, and you have to be smart, well read, and fearless. He may be the best Jeopardy player ever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

He set the all-time one day record tonight with over $137,000 and his ten day total is just shy of 700K. He has the top four single day totals. Wow, what a machine.

This is the first night I've seen him, and I am amazed at his speed. You need to be young to bring up information so quickly, and you have to be smart, well read, and fearless. He may be the best Jeopardy player ever.

If he's really smart he'll invest his winnings in PSA 10 cards.

[pokerplyr80]

I haven't watched but read about him. The same strategy that has allowed for his big wins will probably do him in when he gets a couple daily doubles wrong. Unless he knows everything.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I haven't watched but read about him. The same strategy that has allowed for his big wins will probably do him in when he gets a couple daily doubles wrong. Unless he knows everything.

No doubt that is how he's going to lose eventually. He likely knows over 90% of the questions in a typical game though, and the way he wagers he'd have to miss two large wagers in a row (both Daily Doubles in the 2nd round, or the last Daily Double and the Final) for someone else to beat him. That might only have about a 1% chance of happening each game. Even then he'd have a decent chance of winning since his opponents usually can't break $10,000.

It's a good strategy for him, and it would probably be a good strategy for most other Jeopardy contestants (almost all of whom, as Ken Jennings has said, know almost all of the questions almost all of the time). It's just a testament to how loss-averse humans are that it took 35 years of the show (and something like 14,000 different contestants) for someone to come along and wager so heavily so reliably. Jennings himself did slightly better in terms of number of correct responses per game but played with the goal of winning each game rather than maximizing his expected earnings.

At this point I'd guess he'll sail past $1,000,000 but that he won't win 74 in a row. The question then is whether he'll have earned more than the Jennings number (something like $2.5 million) in his 20 or 30 or 40 game streak or whatever it ends up at.

The other thing I keep thinking as a viewer is that none of the other contestants so far seem to have taken him into account in deciding how they should play. They're just hoping he makes a big mistake rather than trying to copy him so they can stay within range for the final wager. Not that they're getting many opportunities with the Daily Doubles, but when it has happened they've wagered far more conservatively than they should.

[darwinbulldog]

I mean, you probably won't win anyway, but if you're down by 3 TDs in the middle of the 4th quarter and are facing a 4th and 18 you need to air it out, not punt away your slim chance of a comeback.

[barrysloate]

I agree with Glenn that the way he will eventually lose is by wagering big on daily doubles and getting them wrong. I don't think he can be beaten by trying to get more answers right than him. He's too quick, too knowledgeable, and really very intimidating.