Anybody watched Jeopardy lately?

[pokerplyr80]

I haven't watched but read about him. The same strategy that has allowed for his big wins will probably do him in when he gets a couple daily doubles wrong. Unless he knows everything.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I haven't watched but read about him. The same strategy that has allowed for his big wins will probably do him in when he gets a couple daily doubles wrong. Unless he knows everything.

No doubt that is how he's going to lose eventually. He likely knows over 90% of the questions in a typical game though, and the way he wagers he'd have to miss two large wagers in a row (both Daily Doubles in the 2nd round, or the last Daily Double and the Final) for someone else to beat him. That might only have about a 1% chance of happening each game. Even then he'd have a decent chance of winning since his opponents usually can't break $10,000.

It's a good strategy for him, and it would probably be a good strategy for most other Jeopardy contestants (almost all of whom, as Ken Jennings has said, know almost all of the questions almost all of the time). It's just a testament to how loss-averse humans are that it took 35 years of the show (and something like 14,000 different contestants) for someone to come along and wager so heavily so reliably. Jennings himself did slightly better in terms of number of correct responses per game but played with the goal of winning each game rather than maximizing his expected earnings.

At this point I'd guess he'll sail past $1,000,000 but that he won't win 74 in a row. The question then is whether he'll have earned more than the Jennings number (something like $2.5 million) in his 20 or 30 or 40 game streak or whatever it ends up at.

The other thing I keep thinking as a viewer is that none of the other contestants so far seem to have taken him into account in deciding how they should play. They're just hoping he makes a big mistake rather than trying to copy him so they can stay within range for the final wager. Not that they're getting many opportunities with the Daily Doubles, but when it has happened they've wagered far more conservatively than they should.

[darwinbulldog]

I mean, you probably won't win anyway, but if you're down by 3 TDs in the middle of the 4th quarter and are facing a 4th and 18 you need to air it out, not punt away your slim chance of a comeback.

[barrysloate]

I agree with Glenn that the way he will eventually lose is by wagering big on daily doubles and getting them wrong. I don't think he can be beaten by trying to get more answers right than him. He's too quick, too knowledgeable, and really very intimidating.

[Butch7999]

His other major advantage seems to be his timing with the clicker. Lesser skill with that is the downfall
for many otherwise highly knowledgeable contestants. Others may know 90% of the answers as well,
but if they're not first in with the clicker, they're skunked. This guy gets the first answer correct,
and then owns the board thereafter because he's always first in.
Apropos of nothing, he also creeps us out. There've been thousands of bland or eccentric or likeable
or annoying contestants over the years, but we just find this guy creepy.

[barrysloate]

Another $74,000 tonight for an 11-day total of $771,000.

I've watched the last two nights and he did not answer a single question wrong. The depth of his knowledge is incredible. It doesn't matter what the category is.

And as far as his being creepy, he's a very cocky type-A personality, and that could rub people the wrong way. I am so impressed with his skills that I can overlook his quirks.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by Butch7999

but we just find this guy creepy.

He is creepy, its his smile, looks very forced.

[CobbSpikedMe]

I like him so far. I'm hoping he breaks a million.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I agree with Glenn that the way he will eventually lose is by wagering big on daily doubles and getting them wrong. I don't think he can be beaten by trying to get more answers right than him. He's too quick, too knowledgeable, and really very intimidating.

Last night was the first one I watched. In the second round he was more cautious with the daily doubles, only risking about 40% of what he had. He got them both right. I can see why he bothers some people. He should at least let Alex finish talking before asking for the next answer.

[barrysloate]

He is hyper and likes to keep the small talk to a minimum. I still don't know how he can know so much about so many diverse categories, and pull out the answer so quickly. I can do that with a handful of questions every night, but the breadth of his knowledge is many multiples of mine. There are particular ones he doesn't know, but no category is off limits for him.

For example, I got all five last night on movie actors first roles, but there are others I can easily go oh for five. You can't be an expert in everything.