Are We Slaves To The Registry?

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Just this week Joe Orlando on his Twitter feed disclosed that PSA graded a 1932 U.S. Caramel William McKinley. In 28 years they have only graded two copies. Without the registry many would say this card is very rare and only a few are known. With the registry you can confirm that in 28 years PSA has only assessed two copies so it proves just how rare it is. Information is the key to confidence in collectibles so the more you can display the better.

Skewed logic. The only fact you can confirm is that PSA has graded only two copies of that particular card. It does not speak to rarity. Your statement is based on the assumption that anyone and everyone who owns that card would want it in a plastic tomb with an artificial number attached to it. There could be any number of non-sports collectors who don't give a rats rump about getting their cards graded and tracked. They could be happy just owning the cards and keeping them as they are.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Michael B

Skewed logic. The only fact you can confirm is that PSA has graded only two copies of that particular card.

Actually, it only proves that the people who get paid for their opinions have seen at least one copy of that card, but possibly two different times.

[barrysloate]

The registry is here to stay, but like many other collectors I ignore it because it has nothing to do with the way I collect. I don't compete with others and don't really care who has the best cards. I'm interested in baseball history, not slabs.

And as Adam said, it drives up prices to ridiculous levels. It becomes a "1%" hobby, and I can't play on that level. To each his own.

[jimjim]

“Are current products dependent on manufactured scarcity to survive? What if there were no current products? Would the vintage market be adversely affected?”

I am not a big card collector but I love this discussion. I started with cards in the late 1980’s like many 40 something’s but focused on autographs when I reentered the hobby 16 years ago. When I caught the bug to buy a few of my favorite cards from the 80’s I found out about the ‘registry’. To be honest, it has kept me away from collecting cards more than a dabble here and there because I don’t like the insanity surrounding this concept. But most people love it and I understand both sides.

Regarding the first question above, I’m sure this has been discussed over and over but PSA also creates manufactured scarcity when they slap a 10 on a flip. I have always wondered if there is some unwritten rule of how many 10s a grader can give out a day. There is so much wiggle room for a grader that they really control the market. I am waiting until grading is fully computerized and PSA launches a separate registry for those cards. Then I’ll be on board.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Michael B

Skewed logic. The only fact you can confirm is that PSA has graded only two copies of that particular card. It does not speak to rarity. Your statement is based on the assumption that anyone and everyone who owns that card would want it in a plastic tomb with an artificial number attached to it. There could be any number of non-sports collectors who don't give a rats rump about getting their cards graded and tracked. They could be happy just owning the cards and keeping them as they are.

You obviously have no clue what you are talking about. If there was a plethora of them out there after 28 years of card grading more would have worked their way to third party graders. If this recent grading specimen comes for sale the "puffery" used will be glorious.


From PSA card facts.


The classic 1932 U.S. Caramel Presidents set (R114) contains one of the most highly-sought non-sports cards in the hobby, the extremely scare William McKinley card. The McKinley card was actually not confirmed to exist until the early 1990s and is so scarce that the set is considered to be complete at 30 cards rather than the 31 with McKinley included. Distributed in limited supply to encourage continued sales of their product to children attempting to complete their set. A redemption was available by sending in a complete set of cards to be exchanged for a one-pound box of assorted chocolates. In fact, the cards would also be returned with the candy, though defaced by cancellation stamps or punch holes.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You obviously have no clue what you are talking about.

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

To suggest you can't draw conclusions from a pop report is ludicrous.

A pop report doesn't tell you how many exist but if a third party grader has only reviewed a few after 28 years and has graded nearly 33 million collectibles it is extremely rare.

Using this logic I am to assume there are hundreds of Honus Wagner's floating around that aren't accounted for. Please.

Congratulations on owning four. Hopefully your children make a fortune one day selling them.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

To suggest you can't draw conclusions from a pop report is ludicrous.

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

[bbcemporium]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

Doug, you don't think the pop report can be used to draw any accurate conclusions in regards to rarity or condition sensitivity?

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by bbcemporium

Doug, you don't think the pop report can be used to draw any accurate conclusions in regards to rarity or condition sensitivity?

No.

The only certain conclusion that can be drawn from the pop report is that no more than the number listed have been looked at by the people who get paid for their opinions.

There have been numerous threads on Net54 regarding cards being resubmitted. I would be of the opinion that, on average, less cards have been looked at than are in the total pop report for many cards.

That's why I often joke that Dmitri Young should be used to submit cards to the opinion sellers, they always seemed to like his, even if they hadn't liked them previously (with a different owner).

[barrysloate]

I don't think anyone would argue that an unbiased third party who could examine cards for alterations, and set a grade to determine value, would be an asset to the industry. But from that premise, to what actually takes place, is a vast abyss.

The TPG's are missing altered and trimmed cards at an alarming rate, the grading is so inconsistent that a card can be resubmitted three times and receive three different grades (it happens often), and it is believed by many that certain high volume submitters get preferential treatment with their grades.

So why don't we say that third party grading solves some problems, but creates a host of new ones. A far from perfect industry that, IMO, could be doing better.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

I am completely baffled by your opinion on this topic. If someone thinks a Pop report is a perfect road map they are indeed mistaken as many cards are graded by one company and crossed over at some grade or cracked out and once again submitted to the other company falsifying the number of cards graded.

That said when a card comes from a very popular set of cards that have been heavily collected by advanced collectors for a long time time if there was a ton of them you would know it simply by looking at the Pop report.

Here is the sale from 2014 where they notate that less than ten copies are known. No where does it read that there aren't more but at this stage of card grading Robert Edwards is confirming it is indeed a rare card using the population totals.

https://www.robertedwardauctions.com...ly-discovered/


The 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth has three graded by PSA. Once again this doesn't mean only three exist but it is 100% accurate in conveying that it is indeed an incredibly rare card.

I can confirm once more 100% that a population report can be used to determine condition rarity. I only have one set of cards that is rare like your McKinley cards but I have lots of condition rarities. How come there is not a PSA 9 or PSA 10 of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series B Ray Stevens? When looking at the pop report it is the only card from all three sets that one doesn't exist. You don't think it is easy to ascertain by looking at this scenario that this card for some reason is tough in high grade condition? I will give you the answer because every single copy I have ever seen is cut 70/30 or worse and so none will qualify. Will one surface? I don't think one will ever surface but it might. But I know for certain there won't be many and therefore incredibly tough in high grade.

I am not certain if your opinion is based on extreme position bias because you don't like third party graders or what but you are simply wrong.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I am completely baffled by your opinion on this topic. If someone thinks a Pop report is a perfect road map they are indeed mistaken as many cards are graded by one company and crossed over at some grade or cracked out and once again submitted to the other company falsifying the number of cards graded.

I am equally as baffled by your opinion, but at least I have some logic on my side.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

That said when a card comes from a very popular set of cards that have been heavily collected by advanced collectors for a long time time if there was a ton of them you would know it simply by looking at the Pop report.

No, you would not necessarily know that.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Here is the sale from 2014 where they notate that less than ten copies are known. No where does it read that there aren't more but at this stage of card grading Robert Edwards is confirming it is indeed a rare card using the population totals.

Auction houses like to use terms regarding how many are "known" If I open my refrigerator and note that based on the fact that I have one hot dog remaining from my Five Guys purchase yesterday (yes, their bacon cheese dogs are great), and say to you "I know of only three hotdogs" my comment would have no relevance or connection to the number of hotdogs in the world.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth has three graded by PSA. Once again this doesn't mean only three exist but it is 100% accurate in conveying that it is indeed an incredibly rare card.

If by "incredibly rare" you mean that only three have been seen by the people who sell their opinions, then yes, you would be correct. That does not mean that the guy who lives up the street from you who you have never met doesn't have 8 of them in frames in his den, but he probably doesn't. But he COULD.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I can confirm once more 100% that a population report can be used to determine condition rarity. I only have one set of cards that is rare like your McKinley cards but I have lots of condition rarities. How come there is not a PSA 9 or PSA 10 of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series B Ray Stevens? When looking at the pop report it is the only card from all three sets that one doesn't exist. You don't think it is easy to ascertain by looking at this scenario that this card for some reason is tough in high grade condition? I will give you the answer because every single copy I have ever seen is cut 70/30 or worse and so none will qualify. Will one surface? I don't think one will ever surface but it might. But I know for certain there won't be many and therefore incredibly tough in high grade.

I don't know where to start with this paragraph, suffice to say that you CAN NOT "confirm ... 100%" as shown when you say "it might".

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I am not certain if your opinion is based on extreme position bias because you don't like third party graders or what but you are simply wrong.

Actually my hatred of the people who get paid for their opinions is irrelevant to this conversation.

Prove me wrong, and I will apologize and agree with every comment you have made, and donate $1,000 to the schools or classrooms of your choice on https://www.donorschoose.org/

Doug "my hate does not define me, but your proof is not proof" Goodman

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

Why would you assume that releasing some of these scarce cards you would "collapse their market"? Unless you are sitting on dozens of each card the current market would most likely absorb them quite easily. Typically new finds and releases of previously unknown material stirs up excitement and actually increases the price of cards that are already out there.
And to clarify, after reading all these posts, I don't think anyone was saying that you can know exactly how many of any card exists just by looking at a pop report. But to say that it can't be used as a guideline to know the general scarcity or the condition sensitivity of a certain card is absurd.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Why would you assume that releasing some of these scarce cards you would "collapse their market"? Unless you are sitting on dozens of each card the current market would most likely absorb them quite easily. Typically new finds and releases of previously unknown material stirs up excitement and actually increases the price of cards that are already out there.
And to clarify, after reading all these posts, I don't think anyone was saying that you can know exactly how many of any card exists just by looking at a pop report. But to say that it can't be used as a guideline to know the general scarcity or the condition sensitivity of a certain card is absurd.

You are probably right about not being able to collapse markets, the "Trump" in me tends to exaggerate.

I agree that the proportional scarcity is something that can probably, but not certainly, be assumed from the pop reports.

My point is that many people read the pop reports as if they were listing all cards that exist, and auction houses tend to word their descriptions in a direction that leans that way, when in fact they do not.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

My point is that many people read the pop reports as if they were listing all cards that exist, and auction houses tend to word their descriptions in a direction that leans that way, when in fact they do not.

I don't know a single knowledgeable collector who views the pop reports as absolute certainty. Auction houses will of course use the pop reports as a certainty because they are in the business of selling and puffery is the norm. There have been plenty of times I've seen auctions of cards described as one of a kind -- with another example sitting in my collection, slabbed by the same company.

Case in point:

[

[pkaufman]

Jeff, SCP did recently auction another D380 Chase, but stated "one of two ever graded". Just wondering what you meant ? Paul

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by calvindog

I don't know a single knowledgeable collector who views the pop reports as absolute certainty. Auction houses will of course use the pop reports as a certainty because they are in the business of selling and puffery is the norm. There have been plenty of times I've seen auctions of cards described as one of a kind -- with another example sitting in my collection, slabbed by the same company.

The key phrase being "knowledgeable collector"...

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

Doug,

Thank you for proving my point.