1952 Bowman Stan Musial PSA 10 on eBay :o

[nolemmings]

Back to the Musial, this is why I am really suspicious of PSA's involvement. It seems to me incredibly unlikely that someone would take a PSA 9 of a vintage superstar and doctor it in "hopes" of a 10, thereby risking discovery of the alteration by the TPG and a tanking in value. And who knows if you get the 10 even if you're not caught, that grade being so subjective. IMO, the only way you take that chance is if you are cock-sure you are going to beat the grader or if you somehow know that you will.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Back to the Musial, this is why I am really suspicious of PSA's involvement. It seems to me incredibly unlikely that someone would take a PSA 9 of a vintage superstar and doctor it in "hopes" of a 10, thereby risking discovery of the alteration by the TPG and a tanking in value. And who knows if you get the 10 even if you're not caught, that grade being so subjective. IMO, the only way you take that chance is if you are cock-sure you are going to beat the grader or if you somehow know that you will.

Risk reward. When you are making that much money you can take risks here and there for huge upside. If it goes south, a few K down the drain, so what.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Risk reward. When you are making that much money you can take risks here and there for huge upside. If it goes south, a few K down the drain, so what.

Sounds just like options trading when your winning.

[Bram99]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Back to the Musial, this is why I am really suspicious of PSA's involvement. It seems to me incredibly unlikely that someone would take a PSA 9 of a vintage superstar and doctor it in "hopes" of a 10, thereby risking discovery of the alteration by the TPG and a tanking in value. And who knows if you get the 10 even if you're not caught, that grade being so subjective. IMO, the only way you take that chance is if you are cock-sure you are going to beat the grader or if you somehow know that you will.

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Bram99

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

[Bram99]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

Is there could be a grader inside. Not saying PSA actively complicit but I would expect a guy who is actively doctoring cards wouldn't take such a risk of loss. I was talking about the Musial and it appears the jump is price is much more than $3k if it got a 10, which it did.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

and they will just keep submitting the same card time after time until they get the desired result. That's what they do, crack, flip, cut, soak, spoon, color, flip crack repeat...all day everyday for 15 years. Let that sink in

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Bram99

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

Yes. Coupled with the comment someone else made, that politics might be involved with getting 10s. Way too much downside to try this in a "normal" way....

But I wonder what the mechanics could be, to see a card like this shepherded through the system end to end. That part still seems implausible.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Yes. Coupled with the comment someone else made, that politics might be involved with getting 10s. Way too much downside to try this in a "normal" way....

But I wonder what the mechanics could be, to see a card like this shepherded through the system end to end. That part still seems implausible.

Downside only exists relative to upside. You guys are not seeing how this man operates. He risked 3K. He made 25K. 3K is a trivial risk to him. Context.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Downside only exists relative to upside. You guys are not seeing how this man operates.

You are correct Peter.

I have thrown 3k at a trade that had two days until the option expired. A ticking time bomb. He clearly had asymmetric risk here. It appears more that he has confidence in his work and isn't concerned about getting rendered with the AUTH grade or it staying there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You are correct Peter.

I have thrown 3k at a trade that had two days until the option expired. A ticking time bomb. He clearly had asymmetric risk here. It appears more that he has confidence in his work and isn't concerned about getting rendered with the AUTH grade or it staying there.

He made 25K from a 3K purchase which he could afford easily to blow up. Even with a relatively low chance of success it's an obvious gamble to take. He has 20 years of experience and knows his chances. Nothing to see.

[Mark17]

1390 of these things have been graded, and until this one, zero achieved a 10. I can see risking $3k for a possible $25k - I understand the concept - but the odds would have to be a little better to make it a good play. Here we're talking about trying to achieve a grade that had never been given for this card in the history of PSA.

I generally agree, it looks like what appears to have happened, happened. But I base that on not being able to see how any grading manipulation could have taken this card through the process, not on the smartness of the play.

[barrysloate]

I'm going with the nobody risks a 9 to try and get a 10. I don't think there is a single collector/submitter who can even tell you what the difference is. To me the only way you get a 10 is if the grader feels like giving it a 10. I smell something fishy too.

You might risk a 5 to get a 6, or a 6 to get an 8, because each of those cards has a flaw that can be improved. But a 9 is flawless. If you had a 9 and a magic wand to change it, what would you even attempt to do to make it better?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm going with the nobody risks a 9 to try and get a 10. I don't think there is a single collector/submitter who can even tell you what the difference is. To me the only way you get a 10 is if the grader feels like giving it a 10. I smell something fishy too.

You might risk a 5 to get a 6, or a 6 to get an 8, because each of those cards has a flaw that can be improved. But a 9 is flawless. If you had a 9 and a magic wand to change it, what would you even attempt to do to make it better?

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Back to the Musial, this is why I am really suspicious of PSA's involvement. It seems to me incredibly unlikely that someone would take a PSA 9 of a vintage superstar and doctor it in "hopes" of a 10, thereby risking discovery of the alteration by the TPG and a tanking in value. And who knows if you get the 10 even if you're not caught, that grade being so subjective. IMO, the only way you take that chance is if you are cock-sure you are going to beat the grader or if you somehow know that you will.

+1. Who the hell has balls big enough to take a 9 of a fairly big time card/player and alter it hoping for a 10. Even if he knew for sure that you could successfully make all the alterations without detection, what makes him think he wood get a 10 when there none previous. HUGE balls or the fix was in from the getgo. This one seems to indicate the latter

Edited - I just read all the posts after the quote. I do believe the Doctor could make a business risk-reward proposition on $3k - the ups are worth the downs. The problem is there were NO/ZERO 10’s previously. Risking $3k to get an 8x multiple return makes sense. But not when the historical odds of achieving that goal is nil. I guess there always could be a first, but shouldn’t that have alerted psa? All these 52 Musials graded and never a 10 and then one just comes out of nowhere?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

+1. Who the hell has balls big enough to take a 9 of a fairly big time card/player and alter it hoping for a 10. Even if he knew for sure that you could successfully make all the alterations without detection, what makes him think he wood get a 10 when there none previous. HUGE balls or the fix was in from the getgo. This one seems to indicate the latter

It takes no balls at all for someone with hundreds of thousands of dollars in cards and probably millions in the bank to take a gamble on a 3K card, with a huge upside. You can't see that?

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It takes no balls at all for someone with hundreds of thousands of dollars in cards and probably millions in the bank to take a gamble on a 3K card, with a huge upside. You can't see that?

Exactly, plus if it comes back a 9 he's lost nothing.

[swarmee]

Actually, at a 9, it probably still goes higher after the touchups. He's made a lot of profit on cards that stayed the same technical grade if you check the thread on Blowout, just by improving the centering or eye appeal.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Actually, at a 9, it probably still goes higher after the touchups. He's made a lot of profit on cards that stayed the same technical grade if you check the thread on Blowout, just by improving the centering or eye appeal.

Yes, his auction partner throws a HE sticker on it and rally’s his big time buyers to run up the price, with Moser playing shill. Even a 9 likely ends with big profit. Thats a big part of the racket, the auctioneer is not impartial. He is coaching buyers, would be fascinating to see the bid history on the cards Moser buys vs those he sells, and analyze for bid history / retractions etc

[Steve D]

I just noticed something:

If you look at the scan of the PSA 9 from 10 years ago (Heritage), the white spot on Stan's left sleeve is NOT there. This matches with the PSA 10 scan.

So, on the scan from 2017 of the reholdered PSA 9, the visible white spot must simply be a speck of dust either on the slab, or on the scanner.

It would be interesting to know if the black dot in the left upper front border of the card is actually there on the PSA 10. Some scanners, depending on the setting, are known to automatically take out extraneous dots, due to their auto-correct functions.

Steve

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Bicem

Exactly, plus if it comes back a 9 he's lost nothing.

True!! It did not occur to me it could come back something other than a 10 or altered (but I am not that smart to begin with!). And I guess if it comes back altered, or a 8 or 9, he cracks a resubmits, over and over until he gets the 10 or gives up. Perhaps that is what happened.

Ok Peter, I am convinced. It’s not PSA on this one; at least they were not knowingly involved.

[MULLINS5]

When you're making money this easy, $3k ain't nothing to roll the dice on. My money is on PSA NOT being a knowing party to the fraud.

[Bpm0014]

He only has to make it work 1 time in 8 for this to pay off.

"Pot odds..."

[Rhotchkiss]

Mess up. See edited post above - it’s not the dollars, but the odds.

Regardless, it’s a shame what this a@@hole has done to amazing pieces of American history. I hope something very bad happens to Gary Moser.

Ryan Hotchkiss (and Gary, I will gladly meet you in person if you take exception to my post)