What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

Rhotchkiss · #1 06-10-2019, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mdmtx

I actually believe the trimming/alterations could be a major factor in the price escalation. Suppose the trimmer is buying a psa 4 card that he is pretty confidant that he can make a psa 6, will he care what VCP says the value of the 4 is? I doubt it. It becomes a matter of his business model that he win that particular card. I will admit I haven�t looked to see how the prices paid for the pre-altered cards compared to the then market price of the card. My gut tells me they purchased for whatever it took within reason.

Mark

Mark, this is a very interesting point, namely that card doctors are pushing prices bc they are buying cards at high prices thinking they can crack, alter, submit and achieve higher grades which will bring even still higher prices.

For example,
Dr. A sees a great looking 33 Goudey Ruth in a PSA 4 flip. According to VCP, the card is worth approximately $Y. Dr. A feels he could take that PSA 4, crack it, remove a few stains and straighten up one border and get a PSA 6-7, which will make the card worth 4 x $Y. So, Dr. A is willing to 1.5 x VCP pricing on the PSA 4, thereby forever changing the value of a PSA 4 Goudey Ruth.

I am sure this happens. Mark, thanks for providing an angle I have not thought of -- nice to read something new.

Ryan

Peter_Spaeth · #2 06-10-2019, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Mark, this is a very interesting point, namely that card doctors are pushing prices bc they are buying cards at high prices thinking they can crack, alter, submit and achieve higher grades which will bring even still higher prices.

For example,
Dr. A sees a great looking 33 Goudey Ruth in a PSA 4 flip. According to VCP, the card is worth approximately $Y. Dr. A feels he could take that PSA 4, crack it, remove a few stains and straighten up one border and get a PSA 6-7, which will make the card worth 4 x $Y. So, Dr. A is willing to 1.5 x VCP pricing on the PSA 4, thereby forever changing the value of a PSA 4 Goudey Ruth.

I am sure this happens. Mark, thanks for providing an angle I have not thought of -- nice to read something new.

Ryan

We've discussed this before in explaining some insane prices for cards that look great for the grade with only a trivial flaw. I think clearly you have some card doctor competition for such cards.

Rhotchkiss · #3 06-10-2019, 03:16 PM

Ok, maybe its not a new thought -- to me, in the moment, it was -- but still a great point. Namely, card doctors do all sorts of damage -- direct and collateral. But, at the same time, if you have a very pretty card with a few minor flaws, throw it in a PWCC auction (or really any AH) and hope that a Dr. will pay up to turn your PSA 4 into a PSA 7.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 06-10-2019, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Ok, maybe its not a new thought -- to me, in the moment, it was -- but still a great point. Namely, card doctors do all sorts of damage -- direct and collateral. But, at the same time, if you have a very pretty card with a few minor flaws, throw it in a PWCC auction (or really any AH) and hope that a Dr. will pay up to turn your PSA 4 into a PSA 7.

And then consign it back to you where you can put a nice sticker on it, write some garbage description, and sell for a new world record. And if it's centered OMG.

RollieFingers · #5 06-10-2019, 03:38 PM

Museums hire people to paint/ restore artifacts, old things.
Like world war one medals ,weapons , paraphernalia.
It's still the thing it was, and now better.
How does trimming a card now make it fake or of lesser value? Unless it's proven that a trimmed card eventually starts to peel/fold at the edge , while encased.. what's the big deal?
Unless it's a completely reproduced, digital, computer copy. It's THE card.

ullmandds · #6 06-10-2019, 03:53 PM

I totally feel you barry...part of me doesnt get it either?? I don�t think my vintage habits will change much as my collecting focus has been extremely thin lately anyway... and what I am looking for is in such short supply anyway I�m not so sure I really care if it�s altered if its all that is available? For newer high grade stuff I have never understood that market so I really don�t care!

perezfan · #7 06-10-2019, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollieFingers

Museums hire people to paint/ restore artifacts, old things.
Like world war one medals ,weapons , paraphernalia.
It's still the thing it was, and now better.
How does trimming a card now make it fake or of lesser value? Unless it's proven that a trimmed card eventually starts to peel/fold at the edge , while encased.. what's the big deal?
Unless it's a completely reproduced, digital, computer copy. It's THE card.

There are potential problems aside from the one you suggested. Cards with creases flattened out don�t always stay that way. Often, the creases will re-appear with time.

And added color (to conceal flaws) can also change with time. Certain Chemicals used for �cleaning� can eventually erode the paper as time goes on. So the card you see in the slab very well might not be the card you see 5 years from now.

RollieFingers · #8 06-10-2019, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by perezfan

There are potential problems aside from the one you suggested. Cards with creases flattened out don�t always stay that way. Often, the creases will re-appear with time.

And added color (to conceal flaws) can also change with time. Certain Chemicals used for �cleaning� can eventually erode the paper as time goes on. So the card you see in the slab very well might not be the card you see 5 years from now.

sure, chemicals etc. i agree. trimming, im sort of ok about/with

Fballguy · #9 06-10-2019, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by perezfan

And added color (to conceal flaws) can also change with time. Certain Chemicals used for �cleaning� can eventually erode the paper as time goes on. So the card you see in the slab very well might not be the card you see 5 years from now.

Who wouldn't want a PSA 10 Dorian Gray rookie card?

drcy · #10 06-10-2019, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollieFingers

Museums hire people to paint/ restore artifacts, old things.
Like world war one medals ,weapons , paraphernalia.
It's still the thing it was, and now better.
How does trimming a card now make it fake or of lesser value? Unless it's proven that a trimmed card eventually starts to peel/fold at the edge , while encased.. what's the big deal?
Unless it's a completely reproduced, digital, computer copy. It's THE card.

Because the pricing of baseball cards is in part based on the condition of the card in it's natural, unaltered state. It isn't just "what it is" that is part of the value, but the natural condition.

Or, to answer it another way, because altering a card reduces the value. Condition-wise, an altered card ranks below the lowest number grade (1). It literally doesn't even get a number, though AUTH is quasi 0.

drcy · #11 06-10-2019, 03:14 PM

If all cards are altered, it also makes one wonder how important the TPA grades will be. If two cards are largely alike and both known to be altered, will it make such a big difference it is graded a 9 or 10. The price valuations may change significantly.

Of course, then, if the cards are altered, they are all "AUTH" the traditional 1-10 grades won't apply.

I'm no lawyer, but it makes me wonder how liable people can be for the general artificial prices across the board in the hobby. I.e. if undiagnosed altered cards, shilling and other illegal trickery inflated prices across the board, how legally responsible those people can be held for contributing to the general fall in prices not just the specific instances the directly participated in. Just a ponderment.

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