"Possibly doctored" cards at the National.....

[steve B]

Originally Posted by calvindog

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

So lets say the card is at a 6 price, but looks like it could be a 7. I'm confident enough that I could tell if it was altered that I might go for it.
Assuming I don't find anything that would keep it from being a 6, worst case, it comes back a 6 and I've paid full price and will have to wait a bit to flip it. (Or, if I happen to have that much to spend on cards not flip it.) Best case, it comes back a 7 and I have a slightly tougher choice, keep the bargain or flip it.
I would be far less confident if it was a decision between a 7 and 8 and still less if it was between an 8 and 9.

I totally get that hardly any cards of HOF players that are really nice will be offered ungraded. And if I was selling any of my better cards like that I'd probably get them graded. But they are out there, and not every situation is a purchase from a dealer.

The only way to make it anymore as a collector without a nearly unlimited budget is to know more and have a good eye for things. It works better in other hobbies, where the difference between the cheap and expensive is in details that even most dealers don't bother to check for.