Collectors Universe releases fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings today

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I'd like to know how their guarantee fund stands.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I'd like to know how their guarantee fund stands.

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by perezfan

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

I believe there have been a post or two on BO about PSA making good. Also Jesse, on this Board.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by perezfan

It's probably fine, considering it is meaningless, they direct all refunds to the seller, and have no intent on paying out a penny.

Still not a single post here (or on BO) from one single person who was made right by PSA's "guarantee". It's just PWCC and a few various Dealers who are providing refunds.

If anyone reading this thread was provided a refund directly from PSA, please post it here, along with pertinent details.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=272630

There were a few posts about people receiving refunds.

Edit, Peter beat me to it

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=272630

There were a few posts about people receiving refunds.

Edit, Peter beat me to it

Aha.... I missed that one. Good to see they made Jesse whole.

Thanks for clarifying Peter and Jason... I stand corrected!

[jhs5120]

I'd imagine revenue is up significantly, the card business continues to grow and the coin business continues to slow.

I'm sure there will be an increase in warranty expense for the quarter. They had $728k reserved at the end of March. The only real surprise IMHO would be if the auditors decide they need to change up their warranty reserve methodology. Right now they seem to be reserving for around .02% of the total declared value of collectibles (adding $402k of warranty reserve on ~$2B of collectibles processed). For two consecutive years payments on the warranty have outpaced additions to the reserve (albeit not by much).

Right now, I doubt the warranty cost for the quarter is material. If it were, it would be interesting to see how the auditors react. Suggesting that PSA updates their methodology going forward (say .05% of declared value) would result in no meaningful impact on PSA financials, but suggesting that PSA updates their methodology and retroactively applies the change would potentially result in a significant hit. I doubt that would happen though - the declared value of trading cards is less than 10% of the declared value of coins.

Honestly, I think PSA will be fine.

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

[Scott L.]

Curious if they will be asked about the scandal by any of the analysts on the call that cover them. I imagine coverage is light.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by Scott L.

Curious if they will be asked about the scandal by any of the analysts on the call that cover them. I imagine coverage is light.

There were several questions asked about PWCC, trimming etc... one fella was cut off... he hit a nerve... PSA feels that the "scandals" will not affect them... and apparently lowered the guarantee reserve for 2019/2020...

No plans on eliminating humans from the grading process...

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

You are very likely correct in your analysis. Unless an insider steps forth, NDA be damned, and blows the whistle on deliberate corruption, then I could see serious problems for CLCT. But that's not likely for a variety of reasons. A possible third scenario would be widespread media attention on a major scale that discredits the legitimacy of their service and in turn causes panic and/or alienation among collectors and auction sites. That too is unlikely, but still possible.

[drcy]

In the realms of possible possibility, eBay banning PWCC would be a big and hobby rattling deal. If there is a criminal investigation into fraud, that's a possibility and would be a huge deal and have an immediate huge effect.

In the scheme of things, that's what I'd be pressing for to happen.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me there are two things that could significantly hurt PSA: a criminal prosecution or unambiguous revelations of corruption at a high level, possibly in a civil suit. I don't, though, think either of these is at all a likely scenario. Otherwise, with no real competition and a large part of the market entrenched in slabs and registry sets, I think they skate on.

Agree....

[CuriousGeorge]

Let’s just speculate for a second....

During the FBI investigation certain submitters are found to be regularly altering cards and the lists of cards submitted for grading by these card doctors are released.

The boys on BO carefully spend hours going through the list and find many with irrefutable proof of how they looked “before.” This proof is presented to PSA. For now let’s not say by whom.

PSA is then forced to either publicly deny they are the same cards or to acknowledge they are. Simultaneously wouldn’t they be forced to remove these cards from their registry sets whether they wanted to or not? If a card was removed from a registry set wouldn’t the card owner then have no use for the card and insist on having his money returned by PSA’s warranty?

I’m just sketching out a very simple narrative but can you see how easy this can be?