Collectors Universe releases fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings today

benjulmag · #1 08-29-2019, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who is going to crack out a card that expensive to have it reviewed and take the chance it isn't legit?

The buyer. Assuming such a TPG company is up and running and has properly marketed its product (which will include well publicized random statistically significant crack outs of high grade vintage registry cards and showing them to have been altered), such a buyer will make his/her purchase contingent on the card being regraded under this new method. And if the seller is not willing to allow that, then the card will not hold its value relative to a card that is crossed over.

Peter_Spaeth · #2 08-29-2019, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

The buyer. Assuming such a TPG company is up and running and has properly marketed its product (which will include well publicized random statistically significant crack outs of high grade vintage registry cards and showing them to have been altered), such a buyer will make his/her purchase contingent on the card being regraded under this new method. And if the seller is not willing to allow that, then the card will not hold its value relative to a card that is crossed over.

That seems very high risk to me unless the seller is absolutely certain of the provenance.

benjulmag · #3 08-29-2019, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That seems very high risk to me unless the seller is absolutely certain of the provenance.

Or the seller can instead choose to take the risk, and if the card is no good, try to invoke PSA's grading guarantee. The alternative for the seller will the unenvious position of seeing the value of his registry cards steadily fall in value due to their failure to be graded by this new superior grading company.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 08-29-2019, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Or the seller can instead choose to take the risk, and if the card is no good, try to invoke PSA's grading guarantee. The alternative for the seller will the unenvious position of seeing the value of his registry cards steadily fall in value due to their failure to be graded by this new superior grading company.

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

benjulmag · #5 08-29-2019, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

Yep. Not a great choice of options for the seller.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 08-29-2019, 02:19 PM

The CFO's statement that we don't consider the trimming issue material to our business is right up there with Sloan's initial statement and Orlando's blog post. The arrogance and tone deafness coming from this company is mind boggling.

benjulmag · #7 08-29-2019, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No guarantee if the card is removed from the holder, as you know.

BTW, on this point, as we've discussed before, I believe it is just a matter of time before there is some massive civil litigation on this proscription of removing the card from the holder without voiding the guarantee. How else can a person prove the card is altered to pass the threshold PSA will undoubtedly impose to be entitled to receive pay out under the guarantee? For the high fees (up to $5K) PSA charges to grade cards, I don't think a court is going to so quickly dismiss such a suit.

If what I portend comes to pass if such a new TPG comes into being -- the loss of literally hundreds of millions of dollars of market value to registry cards -- the owners of those cards are not likely to accept that without a fight. And then there will be that test case of whether taking the card out of the slab under tightly controlled/supervised conditions for the sole purpose of having it regraded under more modern methods will void the guaranty.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 08-29-2019, 02:48 PM

Market Summary > Collectors Universe, Inc.

NASDAQ: CLCT

25.48 USD +2.26 (9.71%)

drcy · #9 08-29-2019, 02:50 PM

Duly not that some examination can be done with the card in the holder. For example microscopy, infrared, opacity and blacklight. I've successfully used a microscope and black light on cards in PSA holders.

Though, it's important to remove the card for proper investigation-- but it would be cool, and very much possible, for some alterations to be scientifically identified with the card still in the holder. A method for this could be developed.

For the record, I firmly very don't believe modern technology can or will be able to make passable counterfeits (meaning counterfeits that will pass experts using proper identification methods).

The scans could further be used to identify future alterations, regrades, provenance etc and demonstrate that professional holders are not required. Further the scans allow the cards to be examined by experts without the need for the of the in-person card. Some sort of computer/AI software would identify the card and its history.

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