The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards

jchcollins · #1 09-23-2019, 09:12 AM

Just in general, baseball differs from other sports in the reverence for it's own history, and it's place in American society for marking time and nostalgia. Football may be more popular today in terms of fans and TV ratings, but it never will own the lock on our imaginations from a historical perspective that baseball does. Due in large part to this I think, vintage cards have always had a huge following and just based on what we know right now, it's hard to see that changing dramatically - especially for prewar where the supply in comparison to demand is so low. I would agree that junk era cards and especially commons aren't likely to suddenly rise in value. For the rest, and in the wheelhouse of stuff that I collect from the 1950's and 60's it's difficult to imagine them suddenly losing a lot of value, but I suppose there are unforeseen events, economic or otherwise - which could happen and lead to that.

I hope to be around in a quarter century or more to see how it goes...

mferronibc · #2 09-23-2019, 04:44 PM

Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.

seanofjapan · #3 09-23-2019, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.

I doubt it. Basically the hard limit you have is that baseball is only popular in a few countries other than the US.

I live in Japan and baseball is hugely popular here. Its also got the third biggest economy in the world, so lots of consumers with money. And of course there are a lot of Japanese players in the US so awareness of the US sport is quite high.

But....while there is a market for American cards, even here its not that big, and most of it is focused on current cards (particularly of Japanese MLB players). Vintage, particularly pre-war, American cards are off the radar here except maybe for a handful of collectors.

And if that is in the country that would be probably the most likely to develop a market for American vintage cards, everywhere else (except Canada) its going to be non-existent.

Baseball cards aren't really like the art market, which is global because people in all societies can at some level appreciate art even if it is produced in a different country from their own. Baseball cards though are so tied to interest in the sport that unless baseball itself becomes more popular, interest in baseball cards isn't going to catch on.

A wealthy Chinese businessman will gladly splurge huge sums on a piece of art by a famous American painter because he can claim bragging rights among his peers, who at least will know that art by famous artists is expensive. Perfect vanity purchase, which is what all these things are at the high end. A T206 Wagner though? None of his peers will be impressed with that even if he knows what it is. Forget about it.

I mean, ask yourself if you are interested in investing big money on cards of old cricket players from the UK and you can get an idea of how unappealing these things are in societies where baseball isn't popular.

mferronibc · #4 09-23-2019, 09:34 PM

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that�s prob the best test case.

seanofjapan · #5 09-24-2019, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that�s prob the best test case.

Just thinking about it you might also draw comparisons with the stamp and coin collecting worlds. Those are both very international since stamps and coins are produced and collected pretty much everywhere. So the market is bigger. But its a double edged sword too: supply is also bigger since so many countries have made so many of those things. Baseball cards on the other hand are only made in a few countries (The overwhelming majority in the US, but also some in Japan, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Mexico and a few other countries where it is popular).

Also, baseball isn't popular in mainland China yet but there is reason to think it might become popular there in the future. Its massively popular in the other countries in the north east Asian region which all have pro leagues and that includes Chinese speaking Taiwan, and the PRC has fielded teams in international competition. SO there might be a latent interest there which hasn't been developed much yet but could be in the future, which might spur interest in baseball cards in the world's second biggest economy, which would obviously be big.

So there might be some potential for a more global market to emerge, but its probably still going to be limited by the lack of interest in baseball everywhere else!

Exhibitman · #6 09-25-2019, 07:25 PM

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

seanofjapan · #7 09-25-2019, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

Just to be clear, I don't collect cards as an investment. I'm at the lower end of the economic totem pole and mostly just buy ungraded cards for sets I'm working on for fun.

BUT my day job is one that involves economic analysis, and I have fun applying the principles from that to my hobby and debating it with people. Not because I'm stressing about profitability, I haven't sold a card in over 25 years, but because speculating about the macro future of the hobby is part of the "fun" in it to me.

To each his own I say.

Johnny630 · #8 09-26-2019, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

It seems like a lot are much more interested in making money from cards then enjoying/collecting them. Would be cool to take a poll how many on board are full time dealers, part time dealers, eBay sellers, auction houses, flippers or pure collectors. . I’m sure this would never get completely honest responses....hobby/ industry is Full of Big Fishermen Stories /Big Whoopers ...Would get the well I sell what I upgraded from my collection or I sell to buy more stuff for my PC blah blah it is what it is people....calling this a hobby for most people that ship has sailed it’s a industry/money making side thing or full time gig for many.

All are generalized statements with no dislike towards any....it’s all good in my book either way :-) having fun is most important !

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