Bellinger vs. Yelich - MVP

packs · #1 10-24-2019, 01:09 PM

I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.

frankbmd · #2 10-24-2019, 01:18 PM

The posts supporting Yelich are by far the longest.

Bill, I�m with you.

Peter_Spaeth · #3 10-24-2019, 01:28 PM

Yelich was having a terrific year when he went down. He isn't the MVP. Bill always makes strong arguments but I am guessing if he wasn't so biased in favor of the Brewers he could make different arguments from the same data.

Touch'EmAll · #4 10-24-2019, 02:10 PM

Living in Oregon and growing up in SoCal, I have absolutely no ties or love for the Brewers, couldn't care less about the team in general.

Looking at some monthly breakdowns for the bulk of the season of just simply batting averages (power numbers would skew even more in favor of Yelich):

-------- Bellinger Yelich Difference
June --- .272 ---- .365 --- a lot
July --- .265 ---- .352 --- a lot
August --- .235 ---- .306 --- a lot
Sep/Oct --- .280 ---- .345 --- a lot

Bellinger had a wonderful memorable great terrific... month or so

the 'stache · #5 10-26-2019, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yelich was having a terrific year when he went down. He isn't the MVP. Bill always makes strong arguments but I am guessing if he wasn't so biased in favor of the Brewers he could make different arguments from the same data.

I really couldn't. I'm a bit long-winded because the evidence supporting his winning is compelling. The standard numbers make the case for Yelich. The situational stats are very close for Yelich and Rendon.

Yelich was the best hitter in the league this year by far.
Bellinger, who was great for half a year, good for the other half.
Rendon, who was consistent all year, but in the aggregate, not quite as good as Yelich.

A .265 AVG for half a season in a year when multiple teams have hit 300 home runs just isn't MVP worthy. I'm sorry. I don't care how great he was before the break. He was average (at best) in the second half. And while there's some discrepancy as to how WAR is calculated, with BBR showing Bellinger clearly ahead, and Fangraphs having them at a dead heat-both show those two well ahead of Rendon.

the 'stache · #6 10-26-2019, 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.

The stats I picked to talk about? Average, home runs, OPS, first and second half splits, leverage situations?

Those aren't numbers some theoretical physicist had to extract from a massive pile of data. Those are some pretty straightforward metrics.

Even a trained monkey can see that a half year hitting .265 isn't MVP worthy.

packs · #7 10-28-2019, 09:04 AM

Those trained monkeys are the ones voting for MVP.

But besides that, your stats really don't tell the story that makes someone an MVP. Yelich didn't have a great second half. His counting stats were essentially halved while Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most. Whereas Yelich's home runs and rbi's dropped by more than half, and his on base and OPS dropped, Rendon's rbi total went up, his average was more than 30 points higher, and his on base and OPS both went up. The Nats are out of the playoffs without him and given that the Nats also finished with a better record and were the superior team, their best player should naturally win the award.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 10-28-2019, 09:35 AM

Anyone want to give me 6-1 on Rendon?

the 'stache · #9 12-03-2019, 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Those trained monkeys are the ones voting for MVP.

But besides that, your stats really don't tell the story that makes someone an MVP. Yelich didn't have a great second half. His counting stats were essentially halved while Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most. Whereas Yelich's home runs and rbi's dropped by more than half, and his on base and OPS dropped, Rendon's rbi total went up, his average was more than 30 points higher, and his on base and OPS both went up. The Nats are out of the playoffs without him and given that the Nats also finished with a better record and were the superior team, their best player should naturally win the award.

And your stats represent one of the most egregious examples of cherry picking I've ever seen on Net 54.

Yelich didn't have a great second half? Are you fucking kidding me with this??

You're telling me how great Rendon was after the All Star break. Yet:

2019 second half OPS:
Christian Yelich 1.034
Anthony Rendon 1.023.

If Christian Yelich didn't have a great second half (your words), but his performance was still better than Rendon's, what does that say about how Rendon played after the break?

Whoops.

Christian Yelich won the MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. His 2019 second half OPS was 34 points higher than the same metric that led the National League last season.

But he didn't have a great second half. Riiiight.

And this BS about how his "counting stats were essentially halved"? Nice how you just casually gloss over that those counting stats dropped because Yelich was hurt. His didn't realize some precipitous drop in performance. He had 150 fewer plate appearances in the second half.

And this nugget--"Yelich's OBP dropped".

Yeah, from .433 to .423. Wow, what a drop off!! You also managed to avoid that Rendon's SLG dropped from .611 in the first half, to .585 in the second. But you DID mention that Yelich's SLG dropped. Yes, it dropped to .611. His SLG "dropped" to perfectly equal Rendon's "best" half of baseball from a SLG perspective.

#2

And Rendon's "counting stats" got better.

Like home runs??

Rendon's first half home runs: 20
Rendon's second half home runs: 14

#3

"Rendon's RBI total went up"

By a whopping 2. From 62 to 64. An increase of 2 RBI is such a statistically insignificant number, it's not worth mentioning. And anybody with a clue about baseball stats doesn't point to RBI for....anything, anymore. Not in 2019. RBI are a stat of opportunity. Logic dictates that the player who gets more opportunities will have a better result.

And this little gem makes me crack up:

Quote:

"Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most."

Like the last month plus of the season, right? When a team either makes the playoffs, or misses them. September and October are where legends are born. So Rendon kicked it into high gear in September and October....when his team needed him most, right?

Hmm. Let's look at the actual statistics:

Anthony Rendon's batting statistics in September and October of 2019:

26 games played, 115 PA
.239 AVG, 3 HR, 17 RBI, slash line of .400/.420/.820.

A .239 AVG and a .820 OPS. Wow, Rendon just killed it...you know, when his team really needed him.

Just for shits and giggles, how was Christian Yelich doing before he got hurt, in September, you know, when his team "really needed him."

Christian Yelich's batting statistics in September of 2019 (I didn't include the 9th game where he came to the plate once, and Trent Grisham finished his at bat):

8 games played, 38 PA
.357 AVG, 3 HR, 8 RBI, slash line of .526/.750/1.276.

When their "teams really needed them", let's compare the performances of Anthony Rendon and Christian Yelich side by side, shall we?

September and October 2019 batting performances:
Rendon .239 AVG, .400 OBP/.420 SLG/.820 OPS
Yelich .357 AVG, .526 OBP/.750 SLG/1.276

Yes, when "their teams needed them most", Anthony Rendon performed better than Yelich....right?

#4

And those RBIs? That big counting stat you so proudly point to as evidence of Anthony Rendon's MVP worthiness. Rendon had almost exactly three times as many plate appearances as Yelich in September and October. 115 PA for Rendon, 38 for Yelich.

Rendon drove in 17 runs. Yelich drove in 8. Again, Rendon had three times the plate appearances.....but only twice Yelich's RBI count. Yelich's RBI count is more impressive than Rendon's, especially when you consider that 97.7% of Rendon's plate appearances in 2019 came from the third or fourth position in the batting order, while 78.7% of Yelich's plate appearances in 2019 came while batting second.

"Counting stats".

Down the stretch, Yelich and Rendon both had 3 HR. Only, Yelich equaled his home run total in 18 fewer games.

Yelich averaged one RBI every 4.75 PA in Sept/Oct.
Rendon averaged one RBI every 6.76 PA in Sept/Oct.

Yelich homered once every 9.33 AB in September/October. 3 HR in 28 AB.
Rendon homered once every 29.3 AB in September/October. 3 HR in 88 AB.

Counting stats!!!!!!

#5

packs · #10 12-03-2019, 08:46 AM

Who won the MVP?

the 'stache · #11 12-04-2019, 05:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Who won the MVP?

Not Anthony Rendon.

packs · #12 12-04-2019, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Not Anthony Rendon.

Not Yelich, though, right?

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