Slightly OT - 2020 Modern Baseball Era HOF Ballot

rats60 · #1 11-07-2019, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness

WAR is not something created and owned by one person, or even two. It's been vetted by others in the statistical community who understand the math at a high level.

Link please. I don't think this is true at all.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #2 11-07-2019, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Link please. I don't think this is true at all.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

AGuinness · #3 11-07-2019, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Link please. I don't think this is true at all.

I get that people are skeptical. And on a side note, I don't like seeing a thread about something else (in this case, the HOF ballot) devolve into a WAR debate. But here goes...
Feel free to google "baseball war," as you'll probably find many links to many interesting articles. On the most basic level, Wikipedia's page on WAR includes some analysis including a link to a regression analysis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement
The equations that Fangraphs and BaseballReference use are also on that page. They are not a secret recipe or behind a curtain, they are there to be enjoyed and criticized for both their attributes and faults.
In this recent story on MLB.com (note that WAR is not a stat recognized by MLB), the influence on front offices of teams are explored: https://www.mlb.com/news/war-embrace...ces-c303484670
One takeaway from that MLB story: "At this point, though, every team in baseball is employing some sort of WAR calculation."
Basically, every team uses some evolutionary child of WAR, which probably got started in earnest 20 years ago (or so). It's not the ONLY assessment they use for player evaluations, but it is ubiquitous at this point.
So the masses of front office personnel, the minds at various websites like BR and Fangraphs and the sabermetric community in general has spent two decades honing and debating these things - this is what I'm talking about with WAR being vetted.

JollyElm · #4 11-07-2019, 09:27 PM

Warning: This is a long and boring post.

My problem with relying on theoretical WAR stats is that baseball is really a game of small players. You have all the superstars and all-time greats, but so many of the incredible moments in baseball are the result of lesser players coming up big time, or quality players messing up. You can say Player 'A' or 'B' has great WAR numbers, but depending on that STAT alone would ultimately eliminate all of the accomplishments of low WAR numbered players. (This is stream of consciousness writing, so I am obviously talking in a very general sort of way.)

I'm a New Yorker, so I'll just quickly mention a few playoff games involving the Mets and Yankees:
1. If Bucky Dent is replaced, do the the Yankees win that tie-breaker?
2. How about Don Larsen? Do the Yanks win that game without him?
3. Bill Mazeroski?
4. Ron Swoboda?
5. How about leaving Bill Buckner in? If they replaced him, do the Sox win the World Series? Yes!

Baseball is about championships, and who could've seen the above named players having such a huge impact on an entire season? And those are only players who quickly come to mind with regard to NY and the playoffs. There are a gazillion other cases of players whose WAR stats should have had them on the bench, but were in the game and did something great. Baseball isn't science, it's all about momentary factors, especially considering the fact that just to make it to the majors you have to have an enormous amount of skill and talent.

It breaks my heart to dredge it up again, but I'm a Mets fan. In 2015, Yoenis Cespedes basically single-handedly carried the Metties to the World Series after being acquired halfway through the season. For the second half, he was a force the likes of which I have never seen in baseball. They would've been in last place without him. Yes, that is hyperbole, but pretty friggin' close to being true. His half-season WAR (if something like that exists) was incalculable, but...and it's a huge BUT...he absolutely sucked in the World Series. If memory serves right, I know he had no extra base hits, only a single RBI on a sac fly, and batted .150 or something?? I believe that's right. Just look at the ridiculous effort he gave on the first pitch of the Series...

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...E&&FORM=VRDGAR

Back to Bob Costas for a moment. That guy, who has never played a game of baseball in his life (yes, I can't stand that pretentious idiot), would say, "Well, Cespedes could hear his teammate's footfalls approaching and thought it better to slow up and avoid impeding his progress to the horsehide." Whereas someone who understands baseball and has played his entire life in the outfield (like me) would say, "It's the g_ddamn World Series!! If I have to crash into a wall, a land mine or a teammate, I am catching that ball!!!!"

Then there was this wonderful play on the bases, ending the game:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...4&&FORM=VRDGAR

And more lackasdaisical outfield work:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...7&&FORM=VRDGAR

Yet, his fielding percentage was 1.000% for the Series (I just looked it up, as well as the stats mentioned above). So, statistically he didn't commit a single error, but does that fact truly tell the story?? Noooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(It should go without saying, but yes, I understand that he was just one player, so it clearly wasn't his fault alone...but this post started with WAR, so it's relevant.) A monster year and I love him for it, but if he was replaced by even a newbie from AAA, the Mets would've stood a (much) better chance at winning, and that still depresses me.

steve B · #5 11-07-2019, 10:36 PM

To draw things away from stats...

Parker once commented that he had problems getting "charged up" for games.
So the fans threw batteries at him...

And for that, plus being really good, he should be in!

Tabe · #6 11-07-2019, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

.

It breaks my heart to dredge it up again, but I'm a Mets fan. In 2015, Yoenis Cespedes basically single-handedly carried the Metties to the World Series after being acquired halfway through the season. For the second half, he was a force the likes of which I have never seen in baseball.

Take a peek at Manny Ramirez, 2009.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #7 11-08-2019, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Warning: This is a long and boring post.

My problem with relying on theoretical WAR stats is that baseball is really a game of small players. You have all the superstars and all-time greats, but so many of the incredible moments in baseball are the result of lesser players coming up big time, or quality players messing up. You can say Player 'A' or 'B' has great WAR numbers, but depending on that STAT alone would ultimately eliminate all of the accomplishments of low WAR numbered players. (This is stream of consciousness writing, so I am obviously talking in a very general sort of way.)

I'm a New Yorker, so I'll just quickly mention a few playoff games involving the Mets and Yankees:
1. If Bucky Dent is replaced, do the the Yankees win that tie-breaker?
2. How about Don Larsen? Do the Yanks win that game without him?
3. Bill Mazeroski?
4. Ron Swoboda?
5. How about leaving Bill Buckner in? If they replaced him, do the Sox win the World Series? Yes!

Baseball is about championships, and who could've seen the above named players having such a huge impact on an entire season? And those are only players who quickly come to mind with regard to NY and the playoffs. There are a gazillion other cases of players whose WAR stats should have had them on the bench, but were in the game and did something great. Baseball isn't science, it's all about momentary factors, especially considering the fact that just to make it to the majors you have to have an enormous amount of skill and talent.

It breaks my heart to dredge it up again, but I'm a Mets fan. In 2015, Yoenis Cespedes basically single-handedly carried the Metties to the World Series after being acquired halfway through the season. For the second half, he was a force the likes of which I have never seen in baseball. They would've been in last place without him. Yes, that is hyperbole, but pretty friggin' close to being true. His half-season WAR (if something like that exists) was incalculable, but...and it's a huge BUT...he absolutely sucked in the World Series. If memory serves right, I know he had no extra base hits, only a single RBI on a sac fly, and batted .150 or something?? I believe that's right. Just look at the ridiculous effort he gave on the first pitch of the Series...

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...E&&FORM=VRDGAR

Back to Bob Costas for a moment. That guy, who has never played a game of baseball in his life (yes, I can't stand that pretentious idiot), would say, "Well, Cespedes could hear his teammate's footfalls approaching and thought it better to slow up and avoid impeding his progress to the horsehide." Whereas someone who understands baseball and has played his entire life in the outfield (like me) would say, "It's the g_ddamn World Series!! If I have to crash into a wall, a land mine or a teammate, I am catching that ball!!!!"

Then there was this wonderful play on the bases, ending the game:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...4&&FORM=VRDGAR

And more lackasdaisical outfield work:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...7&&FORM=VRDGAR

Yet, his fielding percentage was 1.000% for the Series (I just looked it up, as well as the stats mentioned above). So, statistically he didn't commit a single error, but does that fact truly tell the story?? Noooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(It should go without saying, but yes, I understand that he was just one player, so it clearly wasn't his fault alone...but this post started with WAR, so it's relevant.) A monster year and I love him for it, but if he was replaced by even a newbie from AAA, the Mets would've stood a (much) better chance at winning, and that still depresses me.

If it makes you feel better his WAR with the Mets that year was 2.3 for about 1/3 a season. Extrapolate that to a 6.9 and it's a great season, but not even MVP level most years. Also don't use WAR in a bubble. Cespedes is normally about a 3 WAR guy. That's the reality, not his flukey 2015.

mr2686 · #8 11-08-2019, 08:12 AM

Well, I've never seen a song about how bad HR's, RBI's and AVG are, but I have seen one about War. LOL

War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing
Say it again, why'all
War, huh, good god
What is it good for
Absolutely nothing, listen to me
Oh, war, I despise
'Cause it means destruction of innocent lives

OldOriole · #9 11-08-2019, 09:32 AM

I find this discussion interesting and have created a poll (or at least attempted to) in order to see who the N54 community would vote into the Hall if we were the voting committee members.

Leon · #10 11-08-2019, 09:48 AM

No prob. The 2 threads were merged.... The redirect (and old thread) seen on the front page will go away in an hour. It is not really a discussion for me because I mainly like all things old vintage, not quite as much newer stuff. Carry on.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldOriole

I find this discussion interesting and have created a poll (or at least attempted to) in order to see who the N54 community would vote into the Hall if we were the voting committee members.

JollyElm · #11 11-08-2019, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

If it makes you feel better his WAR with the Mets that year was 2.3 for about 1/3 a season. Extrapolate that to a 6.9 and it's a great season, but not even MVP level most years. Also don't use WAR in a bubble. Cespedes is normally about a 3 WAR guy. That's the reality, not his flukey 2015.

You understand, don't you, that you are proving my point?? So, according to the 'WARmongers' (yes, I'm coining a new word), with Cespedes playing instead of some theoretical average schlub, it only resulted in two extra victories for the Mets that third of a season???? Seriously??? That is the most laughable piece of absolute fiction I have ever seen in my life. Now I have even less respect for the WAR stat. And, again, back to people who play baseball versus the statisticians sitting in Starbucks. It goes beyond looking at numbers on a page. His monster play lifted the entire team, lifted the entire fanbase. The attitude of the players went through the roof, because now they had Superman to save the day. This newfound confidence got the entire squad rolling. Sure, sure, it's a team, so there were many factors involved, not just his production, but they won a helluva lot more than 2.3 games due to his presence.

View Poll Results: Who should be voted into the Hall?
Dwight Evans	18	21.95%
Steve Garvey	13	15.85%
Tommy John	24	29.27%
Don Mattingly	17	20.73%
Marvin Miller	25	30.49%
Thurmon Munson	16	19.51%
Dale Murphy	25	30.49%
Dave Parker	11	13.41%
Ted Simmons	32	39.02%
Lou Whitaker	50	60.98%
NON of the above	9	10.98%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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