2011 Topps Update Trout, to buy or not to buy

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I have been buying and holdng Trout for years. I have maybe around 60 updates alone. I'm glad I went in. Imagine prices if he can make the playoffs.

LOL! I wish I had been collecting modern back then.

[VoodooChild]

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.

My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.



My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

[VoodooChild]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

Hey, if you got the means to hoard them then it's certainly the right modern card to do so with. When you say "so few RC's as him", what's your guess as to the population? I figured the base card would be in the tens of thousands but I could be way wrong. Does the Update Series have limited production compared to Series 1 and 2?

I don't really prospect anymore either. My thinking is that by the time their first Topps card with the RC logo is released, they've at least made the big leagues and you have a small sample size to judge from. It's not as risky as spending $500 on a bowman chrome auto of a 17 year old in low-A.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

Hey, if you got the means to hoard them then it's certainly the right modern card to do so with. When you say "so few RC's as him", what's your guess as to the population? I figured the base card would be in the tens of thousands but I could be way wrong. Does the Update Series have limited production compared to Series 1 and 2?

I don't really prospect anymore either. My thinking is that by the time their first Topps card with the RC logo is released, they've at least made the big leagues and you have a small sample size to judge from. It's not as risky as spending $500 on a bowman chrome auto of a 17 year old in low-A.

Todd Van Poppel
Ben McDonald
John Olerud
Brien Taylor
Robin Ventura
Will Clark
Jose Canseco
Kevin Maas
Greg Jefferies

Yeah, I sucked at prospecting back then. So I quit prospecting in about 1992. Imagine what the “good” rookie cards of those guys would start at today. If Canseco were a prospect today, his rookie, refractor, shimmering ice, auto, jersey, hair follicle 1/3 would sell for over 100k, considering the way he began his career. Sometimes I get tempted to speculate on a young player, but then I go to eBay, see the prices and the ridiculous permutations of colors and varieties of essentially the same card, and then my urge goes away.

[VoodooChild]

Originally Posted by orly57

Imagine what the “good” rookie cards of those guys would start at today. If Canseco were a prospect today, his rookie, refractor, shimmering ice, auto, jersey, hair follicle 1/3 would sell for over 100k, considering the way he began his career. Sometimes I get tempted to speculate on a young player, but then I go to eBay, see the prices and the ridiculous permutations of colors and varieties of essentially the same card, and then my urge goes away.

I agree, but in this case I believe we are talking about Trout's BASE 2011 Topps Update RC and not some shimmer ice superfractor auto card.
I'm not 100% sure, but I bet I paid less than $5 for mine back when it was released and now they are are selling for $1,000. That's why I asked about the production of that card. Are there 5,000, 20,000, 50,000 or more of them out there? Let's imagine that Canseco turned into Hank Aaron and had a HOF career. Would any of his 1986 RC's (non-Tiffany) be selling for $1,000? I don't know the answer. I guess a PSA 10 would....ugh

[orly57]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

I agree, but in this case I believe we are talking about Trout's BASE 2011 Topps Update RC and not some shimmer ice superfractor auto card.
I'm not 100% sure, but I bet I paid less than $5 for mine back when it was released and now they are are selling for $1,000. That's why I asked about the production of that card. Are there 5,000, 20,000, 50,000 or more of them out there? Let's imagine that Canseco turned into Hank Aaron and had a HOF career. Would any of his 1986 RC's (non-Tiffany) be selling for $1,000? I don't know the answer. I guess a PSA 10 would....ugh

For sure, Jason. My rant wasn’t about trout. I was addressing your second point about prospecting. I think you did great buying up Trout cards.