2011 Topps Update Trout, to buy or not to buy

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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If I didn't have one and I wanted one, I'd probably look for a midgrade example, a 7 perhaps. Those sell for $300-400, it seems.
Recent sales of raw examples range from $300-600, which is pretty incredible. 8-card packs from that issue sell for $100, while the Jumbos sell for $500.
I think the only big downside to the card is if Trout gets popped for PEDs (although I doubt Brosius' kid knows what he's talking about). It certainly isn't out of the question, just look at Cano, but I don't see the bottom falling out on this card otherwise.
And I think it's too bad that the card is so expensive, because there must be a bunch of kids out there who are anywhere from 6 to 14 years old who are big fans but may never be able to have a Trout RC because of the cost. And especially so despite it being a mass produced and mainstream issue.

[Foo3112]

Going back to the OP's question, I would say that Trout is a GREAT buy (and I wouldn't say that for really any of the modern guys). Yes, even at the $1100 price tag today. The card was selling at under $400 just over two years ago and already in his sixth season at that time. He was already a solid player. He is the face of MLB today and has always been extremely popular amongst fans and collectors. He is what I consider a blue chip. A sure thing - regardless if he makes the playoffs or wins a World Series.

As far as you not feeling safe with PSA, I understand but I will say this. I would rather have it in a PSA holder and know that at least someone took a look at it rather than have it raw and wonder two things, what's the true condition and second, if someone even trimmed that one.

I say go for it if that's what you want. If you're still on the fence about the player, then perhaps go with a 1993 Topps Derek Jeter Gold PSA 10. They currently can be had for about $1000 and I believe they will be $1,400 within two years now that he's in.

[Neal]

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

[packs]

I would wait on this card if I were you guys. If you remember, there was a time when the 89 UD Griffey was sky high. You can now buy all the 10's you want for four to five hundred dollars.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Neal

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

Short term it is still a good buy. Long term it is a horrible investment. Cards are always ridiculously priced when great players are still playing great. Once they start declining as a player so do their card prices.

Packs post above mine is a great example.

[dictoresno]

I think the ship has sailed when it comes to buying these. I remember three years ago they were $300-330 and I said nah too high and decided not to cough up the money for one. I should've obviously, as my uncle who just got back into collecting at the time grabbed one or two. that was the going rate on those.

then, about almost 2 yrs ago, I remember the market manipulation on these where someone from either California or Vegas was pumping them. there were like 6-8 auctions all listed at once on ebay and the final prices ended in the $600+ range and I believe were purchased by the same person. if I recall, it was suspected that the owner of them were selling and buying them back from their different accounts at high prices. this caused a stir on forums as suspicious. ever since those new "comps", they set the new market value and since then its been increasing, as far as I know, totally manipulated. I threw the towel in and decided against buying one, especially now. I think they are way artificially inflated, especially when you look at the high number of PSA 10's in the pop report and the full availability of them. they aren't scarce by any means.

not gonna say they are topped out, but way too overpriced now to buy in.

[callou2131]

No way would I touch it anymore. There are counterfeits out there that will just get better, plus tons of them in slabs are trimmed. Thats just me personally.

[mightymickof56]

Great thread. Iconic card but the talk of Trout possibly retiring as the best player of all time I think is a stretch. Trout hasn’t pitched an inning and will never materially influence the fabric of American society the way Babe Ruth has. Babe Ruth was, is and will continue to be the greatest baseball player of all time.