What stats most important for HOF?

[the 'stache]

I think a strong case could be made for Mattingly in his prime being the best in the game. He hit for great average, fantastic power, big time run producer, and defensively he might have been without peer in the AL.

My only knock against Donny Baseball, and this is made looking back through the eyes of one that spends a lot of time learning about modern metrics--he didn't walk a lot.

His 162 game averages between 1984 and 1987 are absurd:

108 runs scored, 222 hits, 49 doubles, 3 triples, 32 home runs, 128 RBI, .337 AVG, .381 OBP/.560 SLG/.941 OPS 155 OPS+

And for the record, here's one place where I vehemently disagree with defensive metrics. Obviously, dWAR is about as simple as it gets. I'd really want to get into zone ratings, range factor, etc.

But BBR says in that four year span, Mattingly's dWAR is a composite -1.6. Baseball Reference would have us believe that Mattingly lost 6.2 games, over the course of his career, with his glove.

Not a chance in hell. And Keith Hernandez, the other guy I immediately think of as a godly first baseman? He was worth 1.3 dWAR.

Not every Gold Glove is earned, obviously. Ask Rafael Palmeiro. But Hernandez won 12 Gold Gloves, and Mattingly 9. 21 Gold Gloves, and we're to believe combined they were worth -0.3 dWAR?

Somebody over there is smoking the funny stuff. If my life depended on it, or my family's life depended on having a great glove guy at first, in my lifetime, I'd pick one of them. They were fantastic. Absolutely fantastic.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I think a strong case could be made for Mattingly in his prime being the best in the game. He hit for great average, fantastic power, big time run producer, and defensively he might have been without peer in the AL.

My only knock against Donny Baseball, and this is made looking back through the eyes of one that spends a lot of time learning about modern metrics--he didn't walk a lot.

His 162 game averages between 1984 and 1987 are absurd:

108 runs scored, 222 hits, 49 doubles, 3 triples, 32 home runs, 128 RBI, .337 AVG, .381 OBP/.560 SLG/.941 OPS 155 OPS+

And for the record, here's one place where I vehemently disagree with defensive metrics. Obviously, dWAR is about as simple as it gets. I'd really want to get into zone ratings, range factor, etc.

But BBR says in that four year span, Mattingly's dWAR is a composite -1.6. Baseball Reference would have us believe that Mattingly lost 6.2 games, over the course of his career, with his glove.

Not a chance in hell. And Keith Hernandez, the other guy I immediately think of as a godly first baseman? He was worth 1.3 dWAR.

Not every Gold Glove is earned, obviously. Ask Rafael Palmeiro. But Hernandez won 12 Gold Gloves, and Mattingly 9. 21 Gold Gloves, and we're to believe combined they were worth -0.3 dWAR?

Somebody over there is smoking the funny stuff. If my life depended on it, or my family's life depended on having a great glove guy at first, in my lifetime, I'd pick one of them. They were fantastic. Absolutely fantastic.

The reason for the low dWAR for Hernandez and Mattingly is positional adjustment. And I agree with you, it is a joke.

[nat]

dWAR isn't the figure that you want. It's designed to compare cross-positional value, and so first basemen always do poorly in it.

There are two components to dWAR, one based on runs saved with the glove, and the other is a positional adjustment. You need the positional adjustment because it's easier to find someone who can play first base than it is to find someone who can play shortstop (for example), so a competent shortstop is more valuable to his team than a similarly competent first baseman. Guys who play hard defensive positions get a positive adjustment, guys who play easy ones get a negative one.

If you want to see how many games a player won/lost with his glove, look at Rfield and then divide by (approximately) ten. Keith Hernandez won his teams about 12 games with his glove. His dWAR is so low because of the penalty that all first basemen get. It doesn't mean that WAR says he was bad defensively - quite the opposite, having positive dWAR is very good for a first baseman. It means that a shortstop with a similar Rfield is more valuable to his team because he's harder to replace. (Of course his bat is likely to be worse, but that will be reflected in the offensive component of WAR.)