2011 Topps Update Trout, to buy or not to buy

[Topnotchsy]

Trout has been historically good to this point in his career. Comparable to guys like Mantle and Mays for the time he has played. It's too early to tell whether he will sustain that level for long enough to truly be in the conversation for a spot in the top 5 All-Time or not. Mays won an MVP at 34, and was still extremely valuable at 40. Trout has a lot to do before we can judge him from a career perspective.

Regarding the particular card (2011 Topps Traded), I don't think there's a comparison that anyone can point to confidently.

For comparison:
1989 UD Griffey - 72K graded/3800 PSA 10
2011 Topps Update Trout - 7000 graded/4000 PSA 10

It is clear that there will be many times more 2011 Trout PSA 10's than Griffey UD. The Griffey UD was considered a premier card; it's popularity grew before the internet exposed how many copies existed (and made them easily accessible) and it's still worth far less than Trout. Trout has been a better player, but he is not near Griffey's popularity, and has other cards (particularly 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto) that are far more significant and rare. And of course, they are earlier, from an iconic set and signed.

People also forget that prices are driven by speculation and excitement. No one wants to imagine Trout having a decline like Griffey or Pujols has had, with year after year of declining performance until it is almost hard to remember the glory days. But there's a chance that happens. And even if Trout is very good, once he slips from being the "best in the game," people will look elsewhere.

Griffey and Pujols are two examples, but on the mound Clayton Kershaw might be a useful comp. He was historically good for a decade, and still has the highest career ERA+ for any pitcher. He won 3 Cy Young awards, and probably should have won a 4th.

This past season he was 16-5 with a 3.03 ERA, and yet his cards have dropped quite a bit, and no one views them as a great investment. He's faced some injuries, but he also faces the inevitable short attention span of collectors. Like Trout he has already sealed his ticket to Cooperstown even if he retires tomorrow.

I've been around long enough to know that you can't time when a card will decline, and there are enough references one can make to always argue that a card will go up further (or will decline). I believe that people like Gary Vaynerchuk promoting cards as an investment has helped, and a new wave of collectors (more found on Facebook and I'm sure other more hip social media sites than on message boards etc) have played a big role in driving prices, and in the changes in what people are looking for.

All that said, I think it's an extremely risky investment (if you are looking at it that way). At the same time, if he continues to play at an elite level, I'm sure there is more room for it to increase before Father Time does his magic.