Does this article paint an accurate picture of what lies ahead for collectibles?

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Exactly, well said Adam.

As for the article, the author lost me when he said :

"As we know, in a neighborhood of 100 homes currently valued at $1 million each, when a desperate seller accepts $500,000, the value of the other 99 homes immediately drops to $500,000."

Not true.

Exactly. If I sell my PSA 5 Green Cobb for $200, does that mean every other PSA 5 Green Cobb is now worth $200?

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Exactly. If I sell my PSA 5 Green Cobb for $200, does that mean every other PSA 5 Green Cobb is now worth $200?

Let's run a little experiment. You sell me that green Cobb for $200 and then we can observe how it impacts other PSA 5 green Cobbs.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[trambo]

I think the author connected dots that aren't even dots. Anything is possible but there would have to be a massive series of negative events to make what the author is saying even a remote possibility. So while interesting, it doesn't seem a likely outcome for much of what he/she is saying.

But...if anyone thinks there's merit to the article and wants to sell me some higher end stuff for 10% of March 2020 prices, I'm likely in....

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

Let's run a little experiment. You sell me that green Cobb for $200 and then we can observe how it impacts other PSA 5 green Cobbs.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

LOL!! I am in the market for a decent Sport Kings Ruth for around $500.

[seanofjapan]

The article overstates a lot of stuff, and there is one thing which separates cards from most of the asset classes of the wealthy he uses as examples, which is that the cost of holding onto cards is zero.

If the wealthy need cash its more likely to be the yacht or second home that gets sold, since they pay taxes and maintenance, etc on them. Cards can just sit in a safe for free.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

The article overstates a lot of stuff, and there is one thing which separates cards from most of the asset classes of the wealthy he uses as examples, which is that the cost of holding onto cards is zero.

If the wealthy need cash its more likely to be the yacht or second home that gets sold, since they pay taxes and maintenance, etc on them. Cards can just sit in a safe for free.

Exactly, I'll sell one of my classic cars, gold coins or 100 dollar bill collection before my cards. They sit for Free!!!!

DON'T BRING ME DOWN! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuiMQPc5aKA

[oldjudge]

So much of what the author says is wrong or skewed to his world view. For example, the top 10% is not a small group. In the US it is 33 million people. Only a tiny percentage are currently involved in collectibles. You could easily grow this pot, even in difficult economic times.
My only takeaway from the article is that the author is not in the top 10%, economical or as a writer.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

So much of what the author says is wrong or skewed to his world view. For example, the top 10% is not a small group. In the US it is 33 million people. Only a tiny percentage are currently involved in collectibles. You could easily grow this pot, even in difficult economic times.
My only takeaway from the article is that the author is not in the top 10%, economical or as a writer.

That's a great point. He talks as if 0.01% has all the assests. I think he's more of a provocateur than an economist . I also think that one of his most important claims is that a very strong stock market is unnatural and untenable. He thinks that as the recent bubble burst, the whole economy is crumbling, and collectibles will be worthless. We might fall into a lasting depression, of course. But for the last 200 years, the US economy has recovered from its downturns, the stock market has, over time, averaged 6-7 % gains, and Mantle cards have increased in value. I am not selling. everything

[AustinMike]

As many have pointed out, the article has many major flaws. To me, it is kind of headache inducing. He talks about percentage of Americans, then percentage of households, then percentage of American adults. Three very different metrics. Pick a metric and stick with it.

He also talks about "the top 10% feel poorer and less confident about future gains, and thus less enthused about borrowing and spending." How wealthy are you if your assets are obtained with borrowed money? And, who borrows money to buy baseball cards?

[OriolesHOF]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Exactly. If I sell my PSA 5 Green Cobb for $200, does that mean every other PSA 5 Green Cobb is now worth $200?

Only if you sell it on Ebay with a BIN of $20,000 and accept best offers!

[2dueces]

If you are insuring your collection or collectibles the value is already set.