Anyone watching the insane basketball card prices?

[samosa4u]

You're in a tough spot now. You're currently sitting on $100,000 or $200,000 USD worth of basketball cards. Do you HOLD or SELL? How much will they all be worth next year? These cards are being bought and sold at inflated prices, and it's not going to last.

[GasHouseGang]

I started collecting Kobe Bryant rookie cards a few years before he retired. It wasn't very expensive at that time, and he was my favorite player. I decided to get only PSA10's and do a registry set. Since then the prices have exploded for all of these rookie cards so now I'm not sure if I should sell or hold on to what I have. Can these prices be sustained?

[ZiggerZagger]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

You're in a tough spot now. You're currently sitting on $100,000 or $200,000 USD worth of basketball cards. Do you HOLD or SELL? How much will they all be worth next year? These cards are being bought and sold at inflated prices, and it's not going to last.

For sure, when things escalate 500-800% in the span of 3 months, it's clearly not sustainable or real. I'd expect anyone who has these cards and doesn't want to hold them indefinitely should sell off now. I'm definitely considering selling one of the Magic/Bird cards, as there is no reason for a non-speculator to hold both.

I'm probably in only 10-20% of the current value of these cards, though, and have searched them out with care. They were all bought pre-runup in prices, and a few early in the runup at pre-prices. I'd like them to be part of my long-term collection, so as long as I don't have higher collecting priorities they'll probably stay.

When you start looking at the POP's of these key cards compared to their Baseball counterparts, it's shocking. I don't know that I'd ever find another '61F PSA 7 Wilt with comparable eye appeal, for example.
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[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by ZiggerZagger

For sure, when things escalate 500-800% in the span of 3 months, it's clearly not sustainable or real. I'd expect anyone who has these cards and doesn't want to hold them indefinitely should sell off now. I'm definitely considering selling one of the Magic/Bird cards, as there is no reason for a non-speculator to hold both.

I'm probably in only 10-20% of the current value of these cards, though, and have searched them out with care. They were all bought pre-runup in prices, and a few early in the runup at pre-prices. I'd like them to be part of my long-term collection, so as long as I don't have higher collecting priorities they'll probably stay.

When you start looking at the POP's of these key cards compared to their Baseball counterparts, it's shocking. I don't know that I'd ever find another '61F PSA 7 Wilt with comparable eye appeal, for example.
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Your Wilt is mouth-watering, for sure! But is this card, or any basketball card, ever going to reach the same level as the 52' Topps Mantle or the Leaf Jackie? Right now, if you make the right moves, you can turn your $20,000 USD into a million dollars, and I'm being serious here. When those Gary V. BARBARIANS make an exit and the prices plummet, will you be happy you kept them? Again, you're in a tough spot. I say this because none of us know how much higher these cards will go. Maybe the PSA 7 Wilt will be worth MORE by Christmas! Whatever you decide, I wish you nothing but the best. You have awesome cards and thanks for sharing them!

[Jewish-collector]

HOLY DOUBLE _HIT Jason. You will get 300K or 400K by this time next year I predict.

[Exhibitman]

Not sure I agree with a total hold. I don't think this market will keep running over the next year. Pick a price point where you will feel good and sell the ones you don't really value for your collection when they hit it. Remember, bulls make money but pigs get slaughtered.

I am in the same boat on a smaller scale. So far Ive dumped my Jordans and my Erving RC (and replaced the latter with a raw copy in vg-ex for less than 10% of the price because there was a hole in my album). Still holding the 1957 Russell and the 1961 Fleer Russells and Wilt and Elgin because I think they have room to go, but when they hit a price point I have in mind, they go too. I will not sell my 1969 Topps though, because I got some of those cards when i was a little kid. My Alcindor and Wilt may be worth some money but I remember the day I got those cards so vividly that I doubt I will ever sell them. I just love that set.

I am getting to the point where I want to trade some of the highly appreciated cards for others I would enjoy more, like a UD certified signed MJ card or another signed Wilt card.

[ZiggerZagger]

Good stuff here. I think we're all in agreement that this run-up in prices is artificial, and being driven by forces that aren't well-meaning or sustainable. It's also really clear that vintage basketball was severely undervalued until recently, given considerations of collectability and relatively low volumes out there. I still don't believe that justifies the aggressive rise lately.

I'm certainly going to sell off pieces I don't want to hold permanently. One of the Magic/Bird cards will go, I'm sure, and I have a spare Kareem RC with PSA in the 5-6 range due to be done grading in the next few weeks which may go if prices hold strong. In fact they have probably 120+ raw 1960's/70's basketball cards of mine now in various stages of (endless) grading.

Personally, I caught the vintage basketball bug late last year and have been adding since. Rounded out the Jordan Star run as well, which I've really enjoyed. Not to sound foolish, but for the cards I decide to hold, I really am ok with them losing significant value in future. I won't kick myself for not selling at the peak. If there were a burning need to raise funds for a higher priority, I'd move them. But basketball has been enjoyable in itself. I'd also feel differently if I were in deep in terms of investment in them.

And like you said, Adam, some of the cards have emotional attachment as well. Several came from someone who has become a good collecting friend, and it'd be tough to let them go.

But for anyone's particular situation, if selling cardboard would make a fundamental difference in your own financial independence, I'd hope anyone would do it.
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[Exhibitman]

Jason, I have the exact same trio of 1961 Fleer Russells and Wilt IA in the same condition. Kinda wish i'd splurged on the 8s now.

I had a 6 Russell I sold last year---tooo sooon!